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Going Home? Joe Manchin Eyes Rare Electoral Feat in 2016

In 2016, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin may become just the sixth former governor in the last 100 years who then won a U.S. Senate seat only to return to his gubernatorial post.

Libertarians Notch Record-Setting Cycle in 2014 US Senate Elections

Nominees from the nation's largest third party set records in 10 states last cycle for the largest support ever recorded in a U.S. Senate election.

The Short Half-Life of a First-Term US Senator

Three fell in 2014 and more than half of all defeated U.S. Senators over the last 100 years have been in their first term; at least one first-term incumbent has lost reelection in 47 of the 51 election cycles during the direct election era.

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?

Tom Cotton and Steve Daines became two of just 19 House freshmen to be elected to the Senate over the last century; will a new freshman risk his or her seat to do the same in two years?

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

No Wiggle Room: The 2014 Gubernatorial Elections Are Lousy with Toss-ups

The eight tightest gubernatorial races in the country all involve incumbents and the 2014 cycle could yield the most gubernatorial races decided by less than a point since at least 1900.

Which US Senate Seats Will Flip in 2014? A Survey of Media Rankings

Media election forecasters can only agree on one slot of the Top 12 U.S. Senate seats most likely to change control after the November elections.

Historic Gubernatorial Rematch Looming in Colorado

Tom Tancredo must first survive a competitive GOP primary; if he does he'll get the first crack at a gubernatorial rematch in Rocky Mountain State history.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

Final Battleground Maps: 114 Electoral Votes Up for Grabs

A dozen media outlets still yield 10 different battleground state maps less than a week from Election Day, with an average of nine states and 114 electoral votes hanging in the balance.

Battleground States Revisited: The Maps They Are A-Changin'

Two-thirds of battleground state maps have changed over the past month, yielding 10 different maps across 12 different media outlets.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

House Democrats Issue Statements on Aurora Massacre at 3x Rate of Republicans

Although both sides of the aisle largely steered clear of discussing the incident, House Democrats have issued official press releases on the Aurora tragedy at three times the rate of GOPers.

Dan Maes Poised to Set Record Low for GOP in Colorado Gubernatorial Election History

Tom Tancredo looks to land the best third party showing in Colorado since the 1890s

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Colorado Caucus Live Blog

5:33 p.m. Caucuses will end in Colorado at 8:00 p.m. CST. The Democrats will allocate 36 of its 71 convention delegates from the caucuses today: 36 delegates are selected in proportion to the statewide vote. On the Republican side, a nonbinding presidential preference poll will be conducted; none of the...



Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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