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The Short Half-Life of a First-Term US Senator

Three fell in 2014 and more than half of all defeated U.S. Senators over the last 100 years have been in their first term; at least one first-term incumbent has lost reelection in 47 of the 51 election cycles during the direct election era.

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?

Tom Cotton and Steve Daines became two of just 19 House freshmen to be elected to the Senate over the last century; will a new freshman risk his or her seat to do the same in two years?

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

No Wiggle Room: The 2014 Gubernatorial Elections Are Lousy with Toss-ups

The eight tightest gubernatorial races in the country all involve incumbents and the 2014 cycle could yield the most gubernatorial races decided by less than a point since at least 1900.

Which US Senate Seats Will Flip in 2014? A Survey of Media Rankings

Media election forecasters can only agree on one slot of the Top 12 U.S. Senate seats most likely to change control after the November elections.

Historic Gubernatorial Rematch Looming in Colorado

Tom Tancredo must first survive a competitive GOP primary; if he does he'll get the first crack at a gubernatorial rematch in Rocky Mountain State history.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

Final Battleground Maps: 114 Electoral Votes Up for Grabs

A dozen media outlets still yield 10 different battleground state maps less than a week from Election Day, with an average of nine states and 114 electoral votes hanging in the balance.

Battleground States Revisited: The Maps They Are A-Changin'

Two-thirds of battleground state maps have changed over the past month, yielding 10 different maps across 12 different media outlets.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

House Democrats Issue Statements on Aurora Massacre at 3x Rate of Republicans

Although both sides of the aisle largely steered clear of discussing the incident, House Democrats have issued official press releases on the Aurora tragedy at three times the rate of GOPers.

Dan Maes Poised to Set Record Low for GOP in Colorado Gubernatorial Election History

Tom Tancredo looks to land the best third party showing in Colorado since the 1890s

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Colorado Caucus Live Blog

5:33 p.m. Caucuses will end in Colorado at 8:00 p.m. CST. The Democrats will allocate 36 of its 71 convention delegates from the caucuses today: 36 delegates are selected in proportion to the statewide vote. On the Republican side, a nonbinding presidential preference poll will be conducted; none of the...



Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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