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Which States Host the Most Competitive US Senate Races?

North Carolina has hosted the most competitive races for the U.S. Senate over the last quarter-century with Colorado, New Jersey, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota close behind.

Going Home? Joe Manchin Eyes Rare Electoral Feat in 2016

In 2016, West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin may become just the sixth former governor in the last 100 years who then won a U.S. Senate seat only to return to his gubernatorial post.

Libertarians Notch Record-Setting Cycle in 2014 US Senate Elections

Nominees from the nation's largest third party set records in 10 states last cycle for the largest support ever recorded in a U.S. Senate election.

The Short Half-Life of a First-Term US Senator

Three fell in 2014 and more than half of all defeated U.S. Senators over the last 100 years have been in their first term; at least one first-term incumbent has lost reelection in 47 of the 51 election cycles during the direct election era.

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?

Tom Cotton and Steve Daines became two of just 19 House freshmen to be elected to the Senate over the last century; will a new freshman risk his or her seat to do the same in two years?

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

No Wiggle Room: The 2014 Gubernatorial Elections Are Lousy with Toss-ups

The eight tightest gubernatorial races in the country all involve incumbents and the 2014 cycle could yield the most gubernatorial races decided by less than a point since at least 1900.

Which US Senate Seats Will Flip in 2014? A Survey of Media Rankings

Media election forecasters can only agree on one slot of the Top 12 U.S. Senate seats most likely to change control after the November elections.

Historic Gubernatorial Rematch Looming in Colorado

Tom Tancredo must first survive a competitive GOP primary; if he does he'll get the first crack at a gubernatorial rematch in Rocky Mountain State history.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

Final Battleground Maps: 114 Electoral Votes Up for Grabs

A dozen media outlets still yield 10 different battleground state maps less than a week from Election Day, with an average of nine states and 114 electoral votes hanging in the balance.

Battleground States Revisited: The Maps They Are A-Changin'

Two-thirds of battleground state maps have changed over the past month, yielding 10 different maps across 12 different media outlets.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

House Democrats Issue Statements on Aurora Massacre at 3x Rate of Republicans

Although both sides of the aisle largely steered clear of discussing the incident, House Democrats have issued official press releases on the Aurora tragedy at three times the rate of GOPers.

Dan Maes Poised to Set Record Low for GOP in Colorado Gubernatorial Election History

Tom Tancredo looks to land the best third party showing in Colorado since the 1890s

You Say You Want a Revolution? Third Party Gubernatorial Candidates Thriving in 2010

Third party gubernatorial candidates rivaling 1994 for their best showing since the Great Depression

Colorado Caucus Live Blog

5:33 p.m. Caucuses will end in Colorado at 8:00 p.m. CST. The Democrats will allocate 36 of its 71 convention delegates from the caucuses today: 36 delegates are selected in proportion to the statewide vote. On the Republican side, a nonbinding presidential preference poll will be conducted; none of the...



Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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