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Montana


Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?

Tom Cotton and Steve Daines became two of just 19 House freshmen to be elected to the Senate over the last century; will a new freshman risk his or her seat to do the same in two years?

Rock Bottom: Democrats Hit Multiple Low Water Marks in US Senate Elections

Ten of the 34 states with U.S. Senate races in 2014 found the Democratic Party endure one of its three worst performances in the direct election era.

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Media Analysis: Iowa US Senate Race Is 2014's True Toss-up

A study of 2014 U.S. Senate race ratings finds the odds of a pick-up in Iowa's race between Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst are closer to 50-50 than any other contest in the country.

Which US Senate Seats Will Flip in 2014? A Survey of Media Rankings

Media election forecasters can only agree on one slot of the Top 12 U.S. Senate seats most likely to change control after the November elections.

Will Montana Split Its Congressional Ballot Again in 2014?

Only two of 27 states have split their vote for U.S. Senate and at-large U.S. House seats in a majority of elections over the last century: Montana (78 percent of the time) and South Dakota (60 percent).

Do Montanans Care Where Their Senators Are Born?

Democrats are stirring the pot after statements by 2014 hopeful Steve Daines raise questions about the depth of his connections to the Treasure State.

Advantage Walsh in Montana US Senate Race? Not So Fast

Appointed U.S. Senators who subsequently run for their seat have been elected only a shade above 50 percent of the time.

7 Gubernatorial Election Double-Takes

The Idaho GOP didn't give us Labrador vs. Otter in 2014, so Smart Politics takes a look back at some eyebrow raising surname matchups in gubernatorial electoral history.

Democracy in Action: Major Party Competition in US House Elections

Indiana has placed Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot in a nation-best 180 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana all tallying 100 or more.

From Helena to D.C.? Schweitzer Would Make History in Montana

No ex- or sitting Montana governor has ever gone on to win a U.S. Senate (or U.S. House) race.

Baucus Retirement Opens Up 2nd Longest Democratic-Held Senate Seat

It has been 36,577 days (March 3, 1913) since the last time a Republican sat in Montana's Class II U.S. Senate seat, behind only Louisiana's Class II seat (47,534 days, March 3, 1883).

Iceberg: Split-Ticket Voting Leaves GOPers Cold in Two Northern US Senate Races

North Dakota's Rick Berg and Montana's Denny Rehberg were the latest Republican victims of a rich history of split-ticket voting in their respective states.

Projections: 2012 U.S. Senate Races

Early expectations of a Republican takeover of the nation's upper legislative chamber may have lost steam, but close races still abound.

Projections: 2012 Gubernatorial Races

Western states to provide high drama late Tuesday down the ballot.

Libertarian Candidates Surging in US Senate Contests

Libertarian hopefuls in Michigan and Missouri are on pace to notch the best ever showing for a non-major party U.S. Senate candidate in their respective states.

Romney Still Slow off the Blocks

While all eyes were on Wisconsin this week, Mitt Romney turned in more sluggish performances in presidential primaries held on Tuesday. Despite effectively sealing the nomination nearly two months ago, Romney failed to crack the 70 percent mark in two more states: South Dakota (66.0 percent) and Montana (68.4 percent)....

Will Any Century-Long Streaks End in 2012 U.S. Senate Races?

More than a dozen states have never popularly elected a GOP Senator while voting for a Democratic presidential nominee in the same cycle; will any break with tradition in 2012?

Why Jon Tester Can Survive an Obama Loss in Montana in 2012

Montana leads the nation in producing victorious Democratic Senate nominees in the face of Republicans carrying the state's Electoral College votes

Rehberg Would Make GOP History by Defeating Tester in MT US Senate Race

Sitting at-large representatives have unseated U.S Senators just 17 percent of the time over the last 100 years - a feat never accomplished by a Republican

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Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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