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Nevada


Which States Are Bellwethers for Partisan Control of the US Senate?

Two states - Rhode Island and Nevada - have elected U.S. Senators into the majority party of the subsequent Congress 75+ percent of the time over the last 100 years; Virginia has done so in each of the last six elections.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Democrats Flirting with Poorest Nevada Gubernatorial Showing Since the 1800s

Will Democrats eclipse even the 20 percent mark in 2014 with an unknown nominee taking on a popular GOP incumbent?

Western Women: Regional Gender Disparities in Congressional Representation

Women have been elected to the U.S. House from western states at 2.5 times the rate as the rest of the country over the last century, with the region electing nearly 1/3 of all female-held seats with just 1/7 of all House seats.

Record-Setting 3rd Party and Independent Candidacies Abound in 2012 US Senate Races

Five candidates set all-time statewide records for non-major party candidates in U.S. Senate races this cycle.

Dean Heller Makes History in Nevada

Heller is the first Republican in Nevada to be elected to the U.S. Senate while the state votes for the Democratic presidential nominee since the introduction of popular vote elections.

Schizophrenic Electorates or Short Obama Coattails? D/R Split Ticket Voting in 2012

Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin are five of 18 states never to split their ticket by voting for a Democratic presidential nominee and a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the same cycle.

Women Elected to US House at Highest Rate in Western States

The west holds 9 of the Top 13 slots for states with the largest percentage of seats won by women since Jeannette Rankin was elected in 1916; Hawaii, Nevada, and Wyoming rank 1-2-3.

US House Tenure Varies Wildly Across the 50 States Throughout History

U.S. Representatives from western states serve an average of 2.9 years longer than those from northeastern states throughout history.

Heller vs. History: How Often Do Appointed US Senators Hold Their Seats?

Less than one-third of appointed U.S. Senators retain their seat; number improves to 65 percent for those making it onto the general election ballot.

Nevada's 1st US House Special Election to Break 45-45 Partisan Draw Since Statehood

Democrats and Republicans have each won 45 U.S. House races in the Silver State since 1864.

Ron Paul's Hotbeds of Financial Support: New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and Alaska

Paul's Top 4 states in large donor per capita individual contributions are identical in 2012 from his 2008 presidential bid.

Sharron's Angle: Independents Find Little Success in Nevada US House Races

Only seven candidates from Nevada have run for the U.S. House as an independent since statehood; none have eclipsed 15 percent

Idaho Soon to Be Only State Never to Hold a U.S. House Special Election after NV-02

All other 48 states have held special elections for U.S. House seats since the turn of the 20th Century

Ensign Is First Nevada Senator to Resign Before Election Day

Ensign is one of just two Senators in Nevada history to resign from office before the end of his term, and the only one to do so for more than technical, procedural reasons

Dean Heller Takes Narrow Historical Pathway to Nevada U.S. Senate Seat

Only four of Nevada's 24 Senators had a prior tenure in U.S. House; 75 percent of Senate bids by Nevada U.S. Representatives have failed since WWII

Ensign Departure Still Leaves Big Opportunity for Democrats in 2012 Nevada Senate Race

Partisan control has flipped in every open general election Nevada U.S. Senate race since first popular vote contest in 1908

Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada

Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)

Harry Reid Could Become Just Fifth Senate Party Floor Leader to Lose at the Ballot Box

Death more common than defeat in ending the reign of Senate's majority and minority leaders; over 86 percent have won reelection since 1920

Battleground States Through the Lens of the U.S. Senate

What makes a battleground state a battleground state? For one, obviously, presidential races decided by narrow victory margins. But another way is to examine how a state has voted in other statewide elections. Does a state tend to only elect Democrats, only Republicans, or a mixture? The most widely circulated...

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Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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