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Ohio


Could Dayton Be the Lone Democratic Victor in 2014 Midwestern Gubernatorial Races?

At least one other Midwestern state has voted a Democrat into office each of the 15 times Minnesotans have elected a Democratic governor since statehood.

Can Democrats Knock Out Kasich in Ohio?

The 40 percent rate at which Ohio Democrats have won the governorship with a Democrat in the White House over the last century is good for third best in the Midwest - but it hasn't happened since 1952.

Which States Are Bellwethers for Partisan Control of the US Senate?

Two states - Rhode Island and Nevada - have elected U.S. Senators into the majority party of the subsequent Congress 75+ percent of the time over the last 100 years; Virginia has done so in each of the last six elections.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Obama's America: State References in SOTU Addresses

When searching for episodic examples to bolster his policies in SOTU addresses, the president turns to the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio more than any other.

Plurality Blues: Governors on the Hot Seat

Since 1900, less than half of plurality-winning governors who were eligible for another term were reelected to their seat in the next cycle.

Unusual Entrances: Clergymen Turned US Senators

North Carolina's Mark Harris is trying to add his name to a list of less than two-dozen members of the clergy who have served in the Senate in U.S. history and only three who were elected to the chamber since the turn of the 19th Century.

Presidential Commencement Addresses: Notre Dame Reigns

Ohio State will host its third commencement address by a sitting president this spring, but that's only half the number tallied by Notre Dame.

Strickland Out in 2014 Following 2nd Biggest Incumbent Tumble in Ohio History

Only one other governor has suffered a bigger decline in support in a reelection bid than Strickland in 2010 out of 40 such gubernatorial incumbents since the birth of the two-party system 180+ years ago.

Ohio: The Nation's Battleground Since 1828

Ohio has been the most politically divided state in the country in presidential elections for the last 184 years - boasting the lowest average victory margin and the largest number and percentage of races decided by less than five points.

Ohio: Gerrymandering 1, Obama Coattails 0

With only four Democratic U.S. Representatives elected from Ohio in 2012, the Buckeye State is sending the smallest number and percentage of allies of a newly-elected president to D.C. in state history.

Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

Which State Will Host the Most Closely Decided Presidential Race in 2012?

Since 1824, Kentucky and Maryland have each hosted the closest statewide presidential contests five times; Ohio last did so in back-to-back cycles in 1944 and 1948.

Less than 1% of Voting Eligible Population Polled in Battleground States This Cycle

After more than 640 polls, 531,000 individuals have been surveyed this cycle about the Romney-Obama horserace across the 57.3 million voting eligible population of the 10 main battleground states.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

VP Hype Began Several Years Ago for 2012's Rumored Frontrunners

Tim Pawlenty VP chatter started in 2003 with rumors surrounding Rob Portman and Bobby Jindal as viable #2 picks swirling in early 2008.

Why Ohio? The Numbers Don't Lie (Bellwether States Revisited)

Talk about bellwethers: Ohio's vote for the winning presidential candidate has deviated from the national vote an average of just 2.2 points since 1900 and only 1.3 points since 1964.

Kucinich Flirtation with Washington Yields Modest Fundraising Boost from Evergreen State

The State of Washington ranks fifth in large donor contributions (and eighth per capita) to Kucinich's 2012 reelection campaign.

Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

Dennis Kucinich Reelection Scheme from Washington Would Make U.S. History

No U.S. Representative has won reelection in back-to-back cycles after moving to a new state in the history of the House

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Political Crumbs

Mary Burke: English First?

While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


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