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Ohio


Could Dayton Be the Lone Democratic Victor in 2014 Midwestern Gubernatorial Races?

At least one other Midwestern state has voted a Democrat into office each of the 15 times Minnesotans have elected a Democratic governor since statehood.

Can Democrats Knock Out Kasich in Ohio?

The 40 percent rate at which Ohio Democrats have won the governorship with a Democrat in the White House over the last century is good for third best in the Midwest - but it hasn't happened since 1952.

Which States Are Bellwethers for Partisan Control of the US Senate?

Two states - Rhode Island and Nevada - have elected U.S. Senators into the majority party of the subsequent Congress 75+ percent of the time over the last 100 years; Virginia has done so in each of the last six elections.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

Obama's America: State References in SOTU Addresses

When searching for episodic examples to bolster his policies in SOTU addresses, the president turns to the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio more than any other.

Plurality Blues: Governors on the Hot Seat

Since 1900, less than half of plurality-winning governors who were eligible for another term were reelected to their seat in the next cycle.

Unusual Entrances: Clergymen Turned US Senators

North Carolina's Mark Harris is trying to add his name to a list of less than two-dozen members of the clergy who have served in the Senate in U.S. history and only three who were elected to the chamber since the turn of the 19th Century.

Presidential Commencement Addresses: Notre Dame Reigns

Ohio State will host its third commencement address by a sitting president this spring, but that's only half the number tallied by Notre Dame.

Strickland Out in 2014 Following 2nd Biggest Incumbent Tumble in Ohio History

Only one other governor has suffered a bigger decline in support in a reelection bid than Strickland in 2010 out of 40 such gubernatorial incumbents since the birth of the two-party system 180+ years ago.

Ohio: The Nation's Battleground Since 1828

Ohio has been the most politically divided state in the country in presidential elections for the last 184 years - boasting the lowest average victory margin and the largest number and percentage of races decided by less than five points.

Ohio: Gerrymandering 1, Obama Coattails 0

With only four Democratic U.S. Representatives elected from Ohio in 2012, the Buckeye State is sending the smallest number and percentage of allies of a newly-elected president to D.C. in state history.

Death of the Battlegrounds? The 2012 Election in History

The 2012 presidential election is the only cycle since the birth of the two-party system in 1828 to be decided by less than 15 points nationally and yet have less than 10 percent of its contests decided by fewer than five points.

Which State Will Host the Most Closely Decided Presidential Race in 2012?

Since 1824, Kentucky and Maryland have each hosted the closest statewide presidential contests five times; Ohio last did so in back-to-back cycles in 1944 and 1948.

Less than 1% of Voting Eligible Population Polled in Battleground States This Cycle

After more than 640 polls, 531,000 individuals have been surveyed this cycle about the Romney-Obama horserace across the 57.3 million voting eligible population of the 10 main battleground states.

Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago

The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets.

VP Hype Began Several Years Ago for 2012's Rumored Frontrunners

Tim Pawlenty VP chatter started in 2003 with rumors surrounding Rob Portman and Bobby Jindal as viable #2 picks swirling in early 2008.

Why Ohio? The Numbers Don't Lie (Bellwether States Revisited)

Talk about bellwethers: Ohio's vote for the winning presidential candidate has deviated from the national vote an average of just 2.2 points since 1900 and only 1.3 points since 1964.

Kucinich Flirtation with Washington Yields Modest Fundraising Boost from Evergreen State

The State of Washington ranks fifth in large donor contributions (and eighth per capita) to Kucinich's 2012 reelection campaign.

Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state has voted for the winner 36 times.

Dennis Kucinich Reelection Scheme from Washington Would Make U.S. History

No U.S. Representative has won reelection in back-to-back cycles after moving to a new state in the history of the House

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Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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