Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Track Record

Smart Politics is one of the most regularly cited academic non-partisan political news sites in the country - frequently referenced and featured by national and local news outlets as well as educators that yearn for an unbiased, data-based approach to the analysis of politics and policy.

Drawing from its extensive data archives, Smart Politics is known for infusing a deep historical perspective into the hundreds of original reports it publishes each year.

Over the last three general election cycles, Smart Politics has also offered detailed election profiles and some of the most accurate race projections in the digital media for Upper Midwestern and national contests.

For example, in the 2010 election cycle, Smart Politics' U.S. House race projections were more accurate and precise than any of the go-to national prognosticators, predicting a net GOP pick-up of 62 seats - just one shy of their final tally and more accurate than Larry Sabato (55 seats), Nate Silver (54 seats), Rasmussen Reports (55 seats), Charlie Cook (50-60 seats), and Stuart Rothenberg (55-65 seats).

In Upper Midwestern state legislative races, over the past three election cycles Smart Politics correctly projected Democratic takeovers of the Iowa House (2006), Minnesota House (2006), Wisconsin Senate (2006), Wisconsin Assembly (2008), and Republican takeovers of the Iowa House (2010), Wisconsin Senate (2010), and Wisconsin Assembly (2010).

In 2006, Smart Politics was also one of the few political news sites to correctly predict Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty would successfully defend his re-election bid, even while none of the 10 public opinion polls published since October of that year showed Pawlenty with a lead.

As the 2012 election season heats up, Smart Politics is your home for sharp, reliable non-partisan analysis of the race for the White House as well as U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative contests across the Upper Midwest and the nation.


Remains of the Data

Barrett vs. Walker II: A History of Wisconsin Gubernatorial Rematch Elections

Losing gubernatorial candidates have come back for rematches against victorious Republicans and beat them two times out of the six rematches in Wisconsin history.

Political Crumbs

Governor vs. Governor vs. Governor

The last election cycle saw five ex-governors attempt to win back their old jobs, with success stories in California (Jerry Brown), Iowa (Terry Branstad), and Oregon (John Kitzhaber). But in 1904, the State of Wisconsin saw three governors on the general election ballot: two-term Republican incumbent Robert La Follette, former two-term Democratic Governor William Peck (elected in 1890 and 1892), and former two-term Republican Governor Edward Scofield (elected in 1896 and 1898). La Follette - with Teddy Roosevelt at the top of the ticket winning the presidency - cruised to an 11.3-point victory over Peck with 50.5 percent of the vote. Scofield ran a distant fourth on the National Republican ticket with just 2.7 percent - also losing to Social Democrat William Arnold who received 5.5 percent, but beating Prohibition and Socialist Labor candidates.


A Vote for No One

More than 50,000 North Carolina residents who voted in the Tuesday's Republican presidential primary opted for 'no preference' on their ballot, or 5.2 percent. That marks the second highest percentage of those who have done so in the 40 years of the modern primary era, behind the 9.8 percent who indicated no preference during George H.W. Bush's rout over Pat Buchanan in the state twenty years ago in 1992. In 2008, 4.0 percent were likewise noncommittal, with 1.7 percent voting no preference in 2000, 3.8 percent in 1996, 1.0 percent in 1988, 2.7 percent in 1980, and 1.7 percent in 1976.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting