MN: Obama 48%, McCain 38%, Nader 3% (HHH/MPR)

MN: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA)

MN Senate: Coleman 46%, Franken 39% (SurveyUSA)

MN Senate: Coleman 45%, Franken 45% (Rasmussen)

IA: Obama 46%, McCain 41% (Rasmussen)

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Track Record

Unmatched in the region

Smart Politics’ 2006 political analysis and election projections were unmatched in the region, correctly projecting the winners in 27 of 28 gubernatorial, US Senate, and US House races in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

• Smart Politics projected the Democratic US House pick-ups in Minnesota’s 1st District (Tim Walz), Wisconsin’s open 8th District (Steven Kagen), and Iowa’s open 1st District (Bruce Braley).


• Smart Politics also correctly predicted Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty would successfully defend his re-election bid.


• Smart Politics delved deep into state politics, accurately projecting Democratic pick-ups in all 8 Upper Midwestern state legislative chambers as well as predicting the 2006 Democratic takeovers of the Iowa House, Minnesota House, and Wisconsin Senate.

During the 2008 presidential primary season, Smart Politics served as part prognosticator, part media watchdog, and was an equal opportunity observer of both the strengths and failings of Republican and Democratic candidates.

In Spring 2008, Smart Politics frequently chastised the traditional media for its lazy analysis of the Democratic presidential primary political landscape. Smart Politics blogged in early March explaining why even though Hillary Clinton had lost 10 contests in a row, the New York Senator should and would assuredly stay in the race through South Dakota; she did.

After Clinton’s campaign began to surge, winning in big states like Ohio and Texas, Smart Politics decried attempts by the media to make Barack Obama seem more competitive than he was in forthcoming contests. For example, Smart Politics projected weeks in advance that Clinton would have no trouble defeating Obama in the demographic-friendly Keystone State. Clinton won Pennsylvania by nearly 10 points, despite being significantly outspent.

On May 14, the day after the West Virginia primary, Smart Politics made popular vote projections for the upcoming Kentucky and Oregon primaries based on an original modeling of past presidential turnout, Democratic primary turnout in the region, and projected margin of victories for each candidate in the two states. Smart Politics projected a total net gain of 144,000 votes for Clinton. The final results: Clinton gained a net 140,811 votes – a difference of just 3,189 votes. (Smart Politics’ model underestimated Clinton’s victory margin in Kentucky by just 6,269 votes and Obama’s victory margin in Oregon by just 9,458 votes). Out of more than 1.3 million votes cast in the Democratic primary on May 20th, Smart Politics’ projected net vote gain for Clinton was off by just 0.2 percent.

As the 2008 election season comes down the home stretch, Smart Politics is your home for pointed, reliable non-partisan analysis of the race for the White House as well as Upper Midwestern US Senate, US House, and state legislative contests.

Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs