Spring Fever
After the recent snow fall happened I was looking for any reason that would suggest that spring is right around the corner. Even though I know not to get my hopes up for an early spring I still like to think that there might be some chance. Well that got me to thinking about the ever popular Groundhog Day and just how the myth came to be. Groundhog Day is an annual holiday celebrated on February 2nd in the United States and Canada. According to the folklore, if a groundhog emerging from its burrow on this day fails to see its shadow, it will leave the burrow, signifying that winter will soon end. If on the other hand, the groundhog sees its shadow, the groundhog will supposedly retreat into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks. The holiday began as a Pennsylvania German custom in southeastern and central Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries, its historical roots stretch back to ancient pagan midwinter celebrations and the medieval Christian feast of Candlemas. Modern customs of the holiday involve celebrations where early morning festivals are held to watch the groundhog emerging from its burrow. In southeastern Pennsylvania German dialect is the only language spoken at the celebration, and those who speak English pay a penalty usually in the form of a nickel, dime, or quarter, per word spoken. The largest celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania where crowds reach as high as 40,000 people. There is also an alternative explanation of Groundhog Day that is maybe more logical. In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere the official first day of spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or March 21. About 1,000 years ago, before the adoption of the Gregorian calendar when the date of the equinox drifted in the Julian calendar, the spring equinox fell on March 16 instead. This was exactly six weeks after February 2. The custom could have been a folk embodiment of the confusion created by the collision of two calendrical systems. Some ancient traditions marked the change of season at cross-quarter days such as Imbolc when daylight first makes significant progress against the night. Other traditions held that spring did not begin until the length of daylight overtook night at the Vernal Equinox. So an arbiter, the groundhog/hedgehog, was incorporated as a yearly custom to settle the two traditions. Sometimes spring begins at Imbolc, and sometimes winter lasts 6 more weeks until the equinox. Proponents of Groundhog Day state that the forecasts are accurate 75 % to 90% of the time, but the National Climatic Data Center reportedly has stated that the predictions are only correct about 39% of the time. I think meteorologist Mike Randall puts this phenomenon into perspective: since there are always six more weeks of winter after Groundhog Day, and the concept of early spring in the astronomical sense simply does not exist, then whenever the groundhog sees its shadow and predicts six more weeks of winter, the groundhog is always right, but whenever it predicts an early spring, it is always wrong. The results have an approximate 80% rate of accuracy, the average percentage of times a groundhog sees its shadow. While I will not be putting my money on the rodent anytime soon, it still leaves a little glimmer of hope that maybe this will be the year that makes up that 39%.