Next Monday, May 2nd, the Minnesota International Relations and Comparative Politics Colloquia (MIRC and CPC) are happy to jointly present Prof. James Robinson of Harvard University. His talk is entitled "The Political Consequences of Civil War." The abstract is pasted below, along with his bio. Political Consequences of Civil War.pdf
He asked us to clarify that the project is still very preliminary, and that for his presentation he will focus on the ideas/arguments and the case studies rather than on the formal model itself.
Robinson's talk will take place during at 3:30pm, at the Lippincott Room. Light refreshments will be served. We hope to see many of you there.
Best regards,
Giovanni (on behalf of MIRC and the CPC)
ABSTRACT:
What are the political consequences of civil wars? In this paper we argue that these cannot
be deduced simply from either the preferences of initial power holders or rebels because civil
wars mobilize new groups. This is particularly the case in developing countries with urban
bias and weak states where rural elites are often discriminated against. Such elites have the
most to lose from rural insurgencies, so they have an incentive to form paramilitary groups to
...ght the rebellion. Once formed, such groups may forge a coalition with rural elites making
them much more powerful politically even to the extent of changing the post civil war political
equilibrium and reversing urban bias. However, the paramilitaries may become autonomous
and independently contest power. We develop a model of an ongoing civil war where the rural
elite may form a paramilitary group. We study the extent to which rural elites are able to
collaborate with a paramilitary group to increase their political power. The model suggests
that the rural elite will be able to collaborate when the presence of paramilitaries do not
generate too much 'collateral damage'and when urban bias is high. Paramilitaries are willing
to collaborate with rural elites when it is di¢ cult for them to independently contest power
and when urban bias is low. Civil wars lead to political change when urban bias is relatively
high, the state is difficult to overthrow and when there is intense rural class con‡ict so that
paramilitaries are relatively bene...cial for the rural elite. We illustrate these outcomes via the
civil wars in Sierra Leone and Colombia.
BIO:
James Robinson is the David Florence Professor of Government at Harvard University and a faculty associate at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. Professor Robinson studied economics at the London School of Economics, the University of Warwick and Yale University. He previously taught in the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne, the University of Southern California and before moving to Harvard was a Professor in the Departments of Economics and Political Science at the University of California at Berkeley. His main research interest is why countries are different: particularly why some are more prosperous than others and why some are more democratic than others. For more information, visit: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jrobins/
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Minnesota International Relations Colloquium
Department of Political Science
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
www.mirc.umn.edu
