Humphrey blog posts

Senator Heller faces inauspicious odds

Eric Ostermeier discusses Heller's political future.

Ostermeier's analysis of the 188 appointed senators (before Heller) since the 17th Amendment introduced direct Senate elections "finds that just 62 were elected to the office for the seat's subsequent special or general election, or just 33 percent of all appointees." "Heller's odds aren't quite so bleak," Ostermeier wrote. Appointed senators who chose to run for election and won their party's nomination -- which seems certainly more than likely to be the case for the Nevada Republican -- had a slightly less than 2-1 chance (65 percent) to keep the seat.

Las Vegas Review Journal
November 14, 2011

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Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs