Grizzlies trade for Twolves Mayo
Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
The NBA Draft looked to have went how most people thought it would for the first 8 picks, but it was still hard to see the Timberwolves holding onto OJ Mayo. But unlike the 2006 Brandon Roy / Randy Foye deal this one took hours to materialize.
The Wolves decision is not that surprising considering how much Kevin McHale liked Kevin Love after his visit. Credit McHale for at least getting the value that OJ Mayo provides at the three spot, and turning it into Kevin Love, some 2010 cap relief and a high percentage 3 pt shooter like Mike Miller.
Kevin Love does not have the star ceiling of OJ Mayo, but one key factor is that OJ Mayo likely has greater ambitions than to be wasting away in a small market lacking the exposure to net him shoe deals, endorsements, fame, etc. Not to say Love or other prospects don't aspire for the same fame, but Mayo has been brought up differently being hyped since Junior High. Mayo chose USC largely on exposure. You will likely see the same problem in Memphis with Mayo, and look for him to head for a bigger market when his contract runs out (or end up getting traded before that).
Love has been compared to a more skilled / athletic version of Brad Miller. In the last few months heading to the draft Love has shed a lot of the baby fat that hampered his athletic ability, leading to impressing GM's like McHale and moving up on draft boards. He has an outside stroke, and should soon be an efficient double double player with good interior passing skills. One of the big problems with this draft pick for Minnesota is that Love and Jefferson are an extremely undersized big man duo, so finding a quality C is still on the agenda. Nikola Pekovic the 2nd round pick could be that guy (in a few years when he comes over). Until then their interior defense will suffer.
OJ Mayo in Memphis will be groomed behind Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, along with a glutton of backup-type point guards. Because of this minutes may be at a premium for him early on, but so long as his jump shot is hitting he should be an efficient scorer and a tough defender. More importantly his ceiling is much higher than Kevin Love's, and he will likely be an all-star in a few years. However the Grizzlies have a lot of the same marketing issues that the Timberwolves have and Mayo is likely going to be looking for a bigger market sooner rather than later.
The only solid rotation player involved in this trade was Mike Miller, who returns to his area (he's from South Dakota). Miller has been an efficient, high teens scorer the last few years after being a top 6 man candidate for a few years. One of the Wolves biggest deficiencies was accurate three point shooting and Miller can provide that, along with some off the dribble scoring as well to keep the enemy off-balanced.
Brian Cardinal and Marko Jaric are the big contracts in the trade. Cardinal only has 2 years 13 million left on his deal with Marko Jaric having 3 years 21 million left, but Jaric can at least be a backup quality player. Cardinal is just a contract at this point, but this brings the Wolves cap relief in 2010. A long relief at that considering all the poor contracts McHale has handed out in the past 5 years (Jaric, Madsen, Hudson, etc).
This trade is a definite roll of the dice for both teams, with the Twolves trading a superstar for more overall value and the Grizzlies trading for a superstar in hopes that he can lead a moribund franchise to the top of a powerful NBA Western Conference.