NCAA NBA Basketball Draft

Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)

The NBA Draft looked to have went how most people thought it would for the first 8 picks, but it was still hard to see the Timberwolves holding onto OJ Mayo. But unlike the 2006 Brandon Roy / Randy Foye deal this one took hours to materialize.

The Wolves decision is not that surprising considering how much Kevin McHale liked Kevin Love after his visit. Credit McHale for at least getting the value that OJ Mayo provides at the three spot, and turning it into Kevin Love, some 2010 cap relief and a high percentage 3 pt shooter like Mike Miller.

Kevin Love does not have the star ceiling of OJ Mayo, but one key factor is that OJ Mayo likely has greater ambitions than to be wasting away in a small market lacking the exposure to net him shoe deals, endorsements, fame, etc. Not to say Love or other prospects don't aspire for the same fame, but Mayo has been brought up differently being hyped since Junior High. Mayo chose USC largely on exposure. You will likely see the same problem in Memphis with Mayo, and look for him to head for a bigger market when his contract runs out (or end up getting traded before that).

Love has been compared to a more skilled / athletic version of Brad Miller. In the last few months heading to the draft Love has shed a lot of the baby fat that hampered his athletic ability, leading to impressing GM's like McHale and moving up on draft boards. He has an outside stroke, and should soon be an efficient double double player with good interior passing skills. One of the big problems with this draft pick for Minnesota is that Love and Jefferson are an extremely undersized big man duo, so finding a quality C is still on the agenda. Nikola Pekovic the 2nd round pick could be that guy (in a few years when he comes over). Until then their interior defense will suffer.

OJ Mayo in Memphis will be groomed behind Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, along with a glutton of backup-type point guards. Because of this minutes may be at a premium for him early on, but so long as his jump shot is hitting he should be an efficient scorer and a tough defender. More importantly his ceiling is much higher than Kevin Love's, and he will likely be an all-star in a few years. However the Grizzlies have a lot of the same marketing issues that the Timberwolves have and Mayo is likely going to be looking for a bigger market sooner rather than later.

The only solid rotation player involved in this trade was Mike Miller, who returns to his area (he's from South Dakota). Miller has been an efficient, high teens scorer the last few years after being a top 6 man candidate for a few years. One of the Wolves biggest deficiencies was accurate three point shooting and Miller can provide that, along with some off the dribble scoring as well to keep the enemy off-balanced.

Brian Cardinal and Marko Jaric are the big contracts in the trade. Cardinal only has 2 years 13 million left on his deal with Marko Jaric having 3 years 21 million left, but Jaric can at least be a backup quality player. Cardinal is just a contract at this point, but this brings the Wolves cap relief in 2010. A long relief at that considering all the poor contracts McHale has handed out in the past 5 years (Jaric, Madsen, Hudson, etc).

This trade is a definite roll of the dice for both teams, with the Twolves trading a superstar for more overall value and the Grizzlies trading for a superstar in hopes that he can lead a moribund franchise to the top of a powerful NBA Western Conference.

Posted by Ken Walker at 6:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Each year there are a flurry of phone calls toward the beginning of the draft and they do not end after the draft. Already a few huge deals have been finalized in the last few days, and one big one recently.

Richard Jefferson of the New Jersey Nets takes his 22 points per game to the Milwaukee Bucks, while the New Jersey Nets acquire Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. If you just look at that trade from a talent standpoint, Milwaukee wins outright as Jianlian had a rough rookie season and may never reach a ceiling as high as Jefferson's currently is. Meanwhile Simmons was a decent player until injuries ruined his career, so his value is in his 10+ million dollar contract that comes off the books.

The idea for the Nets as has been rumored before, is to clear salary cap room but 2010 so that they have the ability to go after a free agent stud like LeBron James. LBJ is the obvious target being good friends with Jay Z, who is in control of the New Jersey Nets franchise and plans to move to Brooklyn in 2010.

That said the complication for the Nets is what if their short term is so bad that a superstar does not want to go there? LBJ has already went through one situation with little to no help in Cleveland so if he bolts he'd certainly want quality teammates around him, even if New Jersey / Brooklyn is a bigger market for him.

The hope is that Yi Jianlian can flourish on the basketball court with the change of scenery. Before being drafted, Yi had cities with high asian populations picked out as destinations, but of course one of the lowest ones the Milwaukee Bucks took him! Despite signing with the Bucks it was evident that his agent was still looking for a different culture to create a more ideal setting for Yi. Kiki Vandewhe in New Jersey loves his game and the Nets will need perimeter scoring now, but Yi is young so he still may be a few years away from his peak.

Richard Jefferson in Milwaukee cements their claim as a potential eastern conference playoff team (okay, everyone can claim that). But with the emergence of Scott Skiles as coach and a solid perimeter defender in Jefferson, the Bucks should be a bit more formidable in this area and likely will be up there going for the 7th or 8th seed. Losing Yi so early hurts but he never really wanted to be in Milwaukee in the first place, and as mentioned earlier it remains to be seen whether or not Yi reaches his potential anywhere (and more importantly if that potential can compare with Richard Jefferson who has been a borderline All Star throughout).

More to come tonight as the draft is 15 minutes away.

Posted by Ken Walker at 11:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)