"Data" is not the plural of anecdote

| 1 Comment

In the blog L.A. traffic sucks: Let's fix it! the author argues that driving is an "addiction". I believe people are behaving individually rationally (with perhaps irrational preferences) to achieve personal satisfaction, which may result in societally unoptimal outcomes.

Italianesco, the author, asks "In other words, if I understand well, the speed of traffic is directly proportional to the cost of gas? The higher the price, the higher the speed (fewer cars on the road); the lower the price, the lower the speed (more cars on the road)? And the faster the speed, the sooner you get "there" and the more time you save? " I think Italianesco understands correctly. The empirical question is the degree of relation between those variables, not the direction of the effect.

He also takes a potshot "Academics love calculations right down to the last digit." What is the alternative to accurate calculations? Inaccurate calculations or simple assertion. We need data to understand people's response to higher prices, data like the National Household Travel Survey or analyses like those referenced in this paper.

"Academics and staticians interested in numbers might want to find out what are all those people doing on the road at ALL TIMES of day and night in L.A. One of the best solutions to the traffic problem may lie in the answers to that question." Yes, that is of course non-work travel, which is no surprise to transportation academics (and one hopes, not to professionals either). Most travel is not the commute from work to home.

-- dml

1 Comment

No, no, no, no, I do not argue "driving is an "addiction." I WONDER.

Here's the exact and full quote from my post:

"Driving (or going out for no good purpose at all) can be a necessity, it can be a convenience, but it can also be an addiction. The job I was doing required me to drive all over town to meet clients. Sometimes, stuck in traffic in the middle of the day, I'd wonder, 'what in the world are all these people doing out and about at this time of day?'"

Notice my phrasing: "Driving CAN BE
1. a necessity
2. a convenience
BUT it CAN also be
3. an addiction"

Even the post's title is tongue-in-cheek: "The mirage of high gas prices: addiction-driven demand?"

Perhaps "addiction" may not be the right word to qualify or to describe (in Mr. Levinson's words) "people [...] behaving individually rationally (with perhaps irrational preferences) to achieve personal satisfaction, which may result in societally unoptimal outcomes."

But it can be very EASILY argued that the way many American drivers "consume" gas has many interesting parallels to "addiction" just like the way many obese Americans "consume" food has many parallels to an "addiction."

As I jokingly quote one those "funny lists" on one of my posts: in L.A. "if your destination is more than 5 minutes away on foot, you're definitely driving." I am sure ANY definition of "addiction" would include the words, "compulsive and repetitive bahvior." Angelenos' obsession with driving certainly make you wonder...

Substitute "obsessively habitual tendency to drive EVEN WHEN it is UNNECESSARY" for "addiction" on my post if that makes you feel more comfortable...

I'm afraid Mr. Levinson may have misread and misinterpreted my post.

For a lot of interesting analysis and background info. on congestion, including what Mr. Levinson calls "non-work travel," see The Solution to Traffic Congestion-BECKER
- by Nobel Prize winner economist Gary Becker of the University of Chicago in The Becker-Posner-blog.

You can read my rebuttal to his "solution" Here:

http://la-traffic-sucks-lets-fix-it.blogspot.com/2006/05/would-taxing-modern-hell-rush-hour.html

[P.S.: hope this posting accepts html tags! I'm including some. And please remember that blogger, where I blog, does not support "trackback."]

David Levinson

Network Reliability in Practice

Evolving Transportation Networks

Place and Plexus

The Transportation Experience

Access to Destinations

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Financing Transportation Networks

View David Levinson's profile on LinkedIn

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by David Levinson published on May 11, 2006 5:32 PM.

The value of smooth roads was the previous entry in this blog.

Randall Crane on Accessibility is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.

Categories

Monthly Archives

Pages

Powered by Movable Type 4.31-en