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With Clinton in bed with McCain and Bush on the gas tax holiday, it is nice to see Obama opposing.
From the Strib comments Roadguy Blog Archive � Gas taxes: Ads at the pump? A federal holiday?
The sensible readers of the Strib have spoken, the gas tax holiday is a bad idea, of 17 responses, 0 were in favor and most against.
An article from the Baltimore Sun: Town aims to redraw its core
One suspects the newspaper article above is not terribly accurate or complete ("Retail and arts space, and possibly an international center for the study of small cities, would front the roadway, replacing the office towers that ring the mall complex area." ... will office really be replaced by art, maybe complemented, but not replaced), but it appears the General Growth Properties plan, which has gone through many iterations, finally begins to account for the Mall as the centerpiece of downtown, and tie it in rather than keeping it separate.
The Howard County govt plan is here (pdf).
My previous posts on Columbia are here.
The meeting is tonight, alas it is not being webcast. The official website is here: Columbia Town Center
From BusinessWeek Gas May Finally Cost Too Much
"Now, with nationwide gasoline prices having passed the inflation-adjusted record of $3.40 a gallon set back in 1981, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is predicting that gasoline consumption will actually fall 0.3% this year. That would be the first annual decline since 1991. "
A very nice essay by Clay Shirky: Gin, Television, and Social Surplus .
It leads to the thought, just as we wasted time with Gin and TV, we also waste enormous resources while traveling that could be more productive (both personally and socially) in many other ways. Car radios, Ipods, cell phones, in-car computers help, but only go so far if we are still required to drive. (or are confined as a passenger in a system requiring frequent transfers or without adequate space). This is one reason why the DARPA urban challenge is potentially so important (in terms of leading to a fundamental change in how society operates), affecting how we spend 90 minutes a day.
The Lowry Avenue Bridge across the Mississippi has been closed: Minneapolis 'singing' bridge goes silent and Lowry Avenue Bridge to be shut down
It always made me nervous driving across, with the steel grates instead of a proper paved roadbed. I am sure it was fine, except I like the illusion of surface under my car, which the steel grates prevented.
Too bad they couldn't time this with the reconstruction of Lowry Avenuetwo years ago, or have gotten the funding and design in place before they had to close it, so a year wouldn't be wasted with a closed bridge and no construction. Some of the designs shown on the Strib article (above) look good, certainly better than the I-35W bridge.
Via Techdirt, from Gizmodo: Honda Crime Alerting GPS: Honda GPS Warns Drivers of High Crime Zones
While now in Japan, the social implications of this are interesting. Can't people figure this out just by observing the environment themselves though?
Minnesota ranks among worst in DWIs, study shows
"Minnesota has one of the nation's worst drunken driving rates, said a government report that says 15 percent of adult drivers nationally report driving under the influence of alcohol in the previous year. Here are the states with the worst records:
1. Wisconsin, 26.4 percent
2. North Dakota, 26.4 percent
3. Minnesota, 23.5 percent
4. Nebraska, 22.9 percent
5. South Dakota, 21.6 percent"
Note, these are also almost exactly the states with the highest social capital according to Robert Putnam's index (see the book Bowling Alone)
Table 4.1 Social capital scores by state
Rank State Score
1 North Dakota 1.712
2 South Dakota 1.693
3 Vermont 1.424
4 Minnesota 1.325
5 Montana 1.296
6 Nebraska 1.157
7 Iowa 0.988
8 New Hampshire 0.779
9 Wyoming 0.6710
10 Washington 0.6511
11 Wisconsin 0.5912
12 Oregon 0.57
(Source: Putnam 2000)
(Kevin Krizek and I discuss Putnam's social capital idea in the book Planning for Place and Plexus
This raises the interesting question: does alcohol lubricate Putnam's social capital?
From a social perspective, drinking alone at home may be better than drinking away from home. But what do I know, I am a teetotaler.
Government to release proposed fuel economy rules
These rules implement the law that requires Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020.
Historically CAFE standards seem to correlate with progress in fuel efficiency, rising from 12.9 MPG for new cars in 1974, though the present standard has been unchanged since the early 1980s and as a consequence, with the shift from passenger cars to light trucks, the combined fleet fuel economy has dropped slightly from a peak in 1987 of 26 mpg to about 25 mpg presently.
See Automobile and Light Truck Fuel Economy: The CAFE Standards for more background information and discussion as of 2006. See especially Figure 1.
For some historical reason CAFE standards were the provenance of NHTSA, the safety agency. (probably because the agency regulated vehicles).
I suspect the CAFE standard could be raised higher, which would push technology faster, and more toward battery-based and hybrid systems. It is too bad the market can't do this on its own, (i.e. why don't people buy their own fuel efficient vehicles rather than relying on govt. standards and forced cross-subsidies by automakers between gas guzzlers and gas sippers) and this is a very inefficient way of internalizing externalities, but it is apparently politically easier to regulate automakers than to raise gas taxes.
From WSJ: Clinton Joins McCain on Gas-Tax Holiday; Obama Opposes
One more reason Clinton should not be President. Think about it this way, imagine there were a road utility, which was a separate non-profit (but also non-loss) organization that managed roads, and received revenue from users, revenue which could only be spent on roads. We wouldn't let politicians take away its revenue because some other price went up.
Perhaps this is the model we should consider to help depoliticize road management.
Congratulations to Tom Sorel ... Federal highway official is named state transportation chief
From TPM, an article on Don Young's Earmark for the I-75 - Coconut Road interchange in Lee County, Florida. Don Young (Republican) is from Alaska, about as far from Florida as you can get and still be in the United States.
As I was thinking about a new road design, I found a number that had been patented. The idea of patenting a road may seem a little strange, but it has happened a number of times. In very few cases have the patented designs become widely used. Some references below:
Traffic intersection - Patent 3915580
Simultaneous left turn vehicular intersection - US Patent 5795095
Traffic interchange - US Patent 5921701
Some additional prior art cited in patents above:
1173505
February 1916 - Hale
1515251 November 1924 -Graves
1543080 June 1925 - Graves
3107590
October 1963- Cedeno
3272097
September 1966 -
Gazis et al.
3915580 October 1975 - Kaufman
4592673
June 1986 - Lee
4630961 December 1986 - Hellwig
5049000 September 1991 - Mier
From Christian Wolmar's blog: Why are roads favoured by the right and trains by socialists?
An interesting question, I posted a reply, repeated below.
"From the US, I think part of the problem is the definition of "subsidy". Here, auto users pay a user fee, most of which is in the form of a gas (petrol) tax, that is dedicated (hypothecated) to road construction, and pays in most places essentially 100% of the cost for major roads (freeways, state highways). (Local roads are largely paid for with property tax, but you would have these even without cars). So rather than thinking about it as a public subsidy, it is a service in exchange for a fee.
In contrast public transit users pay about 1/3 of the operating cost (and about 0/3 of the capital cost) in most systems, the remainder is paid for out of general funds, dedicated sales taxes, and from highway user fees. The system is thus more subsidized by non-users.
Also in the US 90+% of taxpayers are regular auto users, about 1% to 2% are regular transit users, so the cross-subsidy from transit users to highway users when using general revenue is relatively small and the cross-subsidy from highway users to transit users is relatively large.
All of which sets the stage for the left/right divide. Things that are subsidized by the general public for the disadvantaged few (and riders of buses generally have much lower incomes than average, trains are different) are consistent with a "left"/Democratic point-of-view. People left to their own devices paying for what they use is a more "right"/Republican point-of-view.
Trains, especially commuter trains, have attracted Republican support. This is because the users are well-to-do suburbanites who often vote Republican. Transit advocates endorse this as a way to broaden the base for transit support (though of course it will take resources away from other transit investments).
-- David Levinson, http://blog.lib.umn.edu/levin031/transportationist/
"
From the NYT:
Impatient Subway Riders Revolt in Chicago
"Impatient Subway Riders Revolt in Chicago
By CATRIN EINHORN
CHICAGO — The packed rush-hour subway train had been stopped for about an hour Tuesday morning, held up by a malfunctioning train ahead. In air hot and stuffy, the passengers had turned nervous and impatient. Ignoring pleas of transit workers, they decided to leave the train and walk through the dimly lighted tunnel toward freedom.
The unauthorized evacuation, transit officials said, caused a bigger problem. Fearing that passengers could be electrocuted by the third rail, officials cut off power to part of the Blue Line, which travels a large U-shaped route between the West Side and O’Hare International Airport. Service was disrupted for about four hours, and more than a thousand passengers had to be helped off several trains.
“If those particular passengers had not self-evacuated, we could have gotten people out on trains and restored service much sooner,” said Ron Huberman, president of the Chicago Transit Authority. ...
"
I wonder how common this is. I remember reading about this happening in London's Underground early in the last century. Would certainty about how long the delay would be have calmed the riders?
McCain Proposes Break in Gas Taxes
"To help people weather the downturn immediately, McCain urged Congress to institute a "gas-tax holiday" by suspending the 18.4 cent federal gas tax and 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day. He also renewed his call for the United States to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and thus lessen to some extent the worldwide demand for oil."
An amazing pander from an amazing politician. Perhaps we should suspend payments to private oil companies for gas as well. Since the user fee for roads doesn't need to be paid, neither does the user fee for energy.
We knew he cared about the environment, but it seems, apparently McCain is for global warming.
At least it is a non-starter.
Stillwater Lift Bridge is up, but when's it coming down?
From the article in the Strib:
"McFarland said that the lift bridge getting stuck "has happened a lot. It's an old bridge. You kind of expect this.""
Gives one lots of confidence in Minnesota's infrastructure.
Center for Neighborhood Technology: Housing + Transportation Affordability Index
An interesting idea, though I don't really buy the results, since housing as a percentage of income is a choice and there should not be a standard against which we judge this. If I choose to consume more house and less entertainment, who is to say that is "unaffordable". If housing + transport in the exurbs take a higher share of income than the cities, isn't that what the exurbanites prefer, and don't they get better houses than we city folk (i.e. likely to be new with all the amenities and more sq.ft. per person)?
From the Strib: Northwest Airlines agrees to be acquired by Delta
1) Will the new Delta be any less dominant at any hub than either airline was before?
2) Will there be more service or lower prices?
3) Will fuel prices be lower?
4) Will labor costs be lower?
A merger really only makes sense (for the acquiring company) if it increases benefits (revenue) or lowers costs. I.e. are there synergies or economies of scale/scope to be had, and do those benefits outweigh the transaction cost of the acquisition and integration of two organizations. Given that airlines have not been cumulative profitable over their history ... as Warren Buffett has said
(quoted in New York Times) “If we knew then what we know now, we’d have shot the Wright Brothers down.” (“A Profitable 18 Hours That’s All Business,” Tuesday March 11, 2008, C-6) "
it is doubtful a merger really does much of anything, especially since airline alliances and inter-ticketing are as seamless as regular air travel (not seamless, just "as seamless")
This article looks at the issue more formally, suggesting profits are centered on zero and are getting more and more volatile, and that the cause is part the large capital orders of airplanes, which have a long lag, are ordered in good times and arrive in bad times, exacerbating the excess capacity problem.
From a local pride issue, the Twin Cities loses another headquarters. However NWA has been steadily slipping in the airline league tables (along with MSP airport in the airport league tables), so this was probably an inevitable loss. But since MSP remains a hub, one expects a similar level of non-stop service and similar level of semi-monopoly prices. If MSP were to lose hub status, a low cost carrier could move in and allow competition to drive down prices, which would not be too bad.
Article in NY Times about experience of privatization on Indiana Toll Roads: Toll Road Offers New Jersey a Fiscal Test Drive . While noting critics, the article is generally favorable. This is an issue primarily for existing public toll agencies which a number of governors want to sell off for cash up front. Secondarily, the issue arises of tolling existing untolled roads and building new private toll roads.
The article did not raise the issue of non-compete clauses, which were the undoing of California SR-91's private ownership.
Bob Metcalfe, Inventor of the Ethernet, famously proposed that the value of a communications network is given by n^2, where is n is the number of members on the network. This has been dubbed Metcalfe's Law.
In an article published in IEEE Spectrum titled Metcalfe's Law is Wrong, my colleague Andrew Odlyzko with Bob Briscoe and Benjamin Tilly reason from Zipf's Law (using Zipf's Law applied to word frequency, but as transportationists, we could just as easily use Zipf's Law as applied to city size distribution) why this is not the case, and that n log(n) is a better estimate. In short, not every connection is equally valuable. This is something well understood in transportation, where accessibility measures discount connections by a function of their travel impedance. However this article suggests there is something else going on, that there are, in a sense, diminishing returns to connections. The first connection is more valuable than the second.
One could organize this over time instead of just network size, and suggest that network value grows at a decreasing rate as all the best connections are made first, then the next best connections, and so on.
If this is the case, this generates the hypothesis (which I have not yet tested) that in a hedonic model of price (value) of real estate, accessibility measured as a product of the log of activities will give a better fit than one which just uses activities straight. (Results of hedonic models suggest accessibility is a significant factor in explaining house price, see Access to Destinations: Development of Accessibility Measures (esp. Chapter 5) for an example ).
Traditionally we represent Accessibility (Hansen's Accessibility Measure) at point i (Ai) as proportional to Destinations at j (say employment Ej) multiplied by f(Cij) where Cij is a travel cost, and f(Cij) is a travel impedance function (e.g. I/Cij^2) in the classic gravity model or e^(B*Cij) using a negative exponential form B<0).
Ai = ∑ Ej * f(Cij)
but the n log(n) argument suggests
Ai = log(∑Ej * f(Cij) )
might give a better fit in a behavioral or hedonic model dependent on accessibility.
(in short we discount the job for its difficulty to reach before we discount it because of diminishing returns. )
A wonderful quote turned up on the website: The Ponderings of Woodrow: on a blog post about bad predictions:
"Dear Mr. President: The canal system of this country is being threatened by a new form of transportation known as 'railroads' ... As you may well know, Mr. President, 'railroad' carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of 15 miles per hour by 'engines' which, in addition to endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed." -- Martin Van Buren, Governor of New York, 1830
Another from a page: Famous Authoritative Pronouncements
"Rail travel at high speeds is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia."
Dionysius Lardner, Professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at University College, London, and author of The Steam Engine Explained and Illustrated
Finally:
Great Quotes from Great Skeptics
"What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?"
- The Quarterly Review, England (March 1825)
From New York Times: Microsoft Introduces Tool for Avoiding Traffic Jams
The key components for any valid system is data. In most cities, there is no real traffic information on side streets. Developing "personalities" for streets is a nice idea, but without real-time data, it is all guess work.
Bill Gates got his start creating traffic counters, with his company Traf-O-Data, so this may be an idea dear to his heart.
From the San Francisco papers a while back, I saw a headline ""City rids streets of hundreds of garbage cans: Mayor says high number led to trash overflows""
An article about this: Trash cans cut back on city streets / Mayor defends policy but supervisors, residents complain
On its face, eliminating garbage cans will not eliminate garbage, so what is the mental model Mayor Newsom has?
(a) by increasing the transportation cost of disposal, people will create less waste? (The induced demand argument.
(b) people/businesses are free-riding on public trash receptacles, and that by cutting back, people will fund their own receptacles?
The question needs to be asked why were public trash receptacles initially deployed? One suspects public dumping of waste and littering were problems, otherwise a solution would never have been proposed. Public dumping and littering are not mere aesthetic issues, there is also a significant public health problem. To sustain a large population in a small area, waste must be managed.
The example of Amsterdam may be worth visiting. Receptacles there are port-holes into a much large waste storage dumpster under the ground that is cleared every morning by giant mechanical cleaning machines in a fascinating example of advanced technology for seemingly mundane uses. This applies to recycling as well.
Four pictures I took in Amsterdam of waste collection in 2003
- 
- 
Pictures of recycling bins in Amsterdam from Pushpullbar forum
Some more pictures here:
Christelle: Another Dutch thing... Garbage!
and
An article in the St. Cloud Times announces the 2008 MnDOT construction program, including replacement of the DeSoto Bridge.
The state list includes 135 projects
The Metro area list is given in the Pioneer Press
From the (UK) GuardianCO2 map zooms in on emissions in the United States. US CO2 emissions are more important in Europe than the US judging by media play.
See this YouTube for the really cool visualizations:
Special license plates shield officials from traffic tickets
"Muir discovered that drivers covered under the Confidential Records Program abuse the system by evading toll road charges, running red lights at intersections with red light cameras, parking illegally, and breaking other traffic laws with impunity."
Via BoingBoing:
Artist beats ticket for 'driving' pedal car
Is it transportation or is it art?
Via BoingBoing:
Artist beats ticket for 'driving' pedal car
Is it transportation or is it art?
From the campus Minnesota Daily: Oberstar talks transportation on campus
From New York Times: $8 Traffic Fee for Manhattan Gets Nowhere
The London Mayor's race is "hotting up" (not heating up, as in American English). Each of the candidates, current mayor Ken Livingston (labour) and Boris Johnson (conservative) have issued "transport manifestos".
While Ken Livingstone may now be somewhat well-known to Americans interested in congestion pricing, Boris Johnson is himself a celebrity of sorts in the UK, a British version of a young William F. Buckley perhaps? He manages to attract publicity for whatever he does.
An article on Ken Livingstone's campaign and manifesto are linked to from here:
London: Mayor & More: Livingstone's Transport Policy Launch
Boris Johnson's Manifesto can be found here:
Transport : Back Boris for Mayor of London
One of the major issues is "Bendy Buses" (Articulated Buses), which have in recent years been introduced to London's streets, and are not terribly popular, especially with cyclists.
Johnson has also called for reconsideration of the western extension of the congestion charging region implement in 2007.
What Will Life Be Like in the Year 2008? written in 1968. ...