Technion Prediction Tournament

How good a modeler are you?

The Technion Prediction Tournament seeks to find out ...

"Motivation and the basic idea

Classical behavioral decision research focuses on counter-examples to rational decision theory (like the Allais’ paradox), and simple models of sufficient conditions to these counter-examples (like original prospect theory, Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). We believe that this focus was highly effective in establishing the importance of behavioral decision research; yet, the future of our discipline depends on our ability to advance beyond counter-examples (see Budescu et al., 1998.

The current set of competitions tries to take one step beyond counter-examples by focusing on well defined spaces of choice problems. The set includes three independent competitions that will focus on three distinct choice tasks:

One shot decisions under risk (like the situations studied by Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) - Condition Description

One shot decisions from experience (like the situations studied by Hertwig et al., 2004) - Condition E-sampling

Repeated decisions from experience (like the situations studied by Barron and Erev, 2003) - Condition E-repeated

We ran one set of experimental studies (the estimation set) and will soon run a second set (the competition set). Both sets focus on choice between two alternatives, a safe choice and a risky choice:

Safe: Medium with certainty;

Risk: Low with probability p; High otherwise"

David Levinson

Network Reliability in Practice

Evolving Transportation Networks

Place and Plexus

The Transportation Experience

Access to Destinations

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Financing Transportation Networks

View David Levinson's profile on LinkedIn

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by David Levinson published on July 22, 2008 1:48 PM.

Foreclosures down under was the previous entry in this blog.

House to Consider $8 Billion Highway Trust Fund Shortfall Remedy is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.


Monthly Archives


Powered by Movable Type 4.31-en