February 2009 Archives

From Wired: Feb. 25, 1919: Oregon Taxes Gas by the Gallon

Shot dead before it was even born ...

Via Techdirt, from Fox: Obama Administration Shoots Down LaHood Mileage Tax Idea

The Mileage tax, proposed in Oregon and some other states, and due to be proposed nationally, had the following debut for the US:

From the article:

"We should look at the vehicular miles program where people are actually clocked on the number of miles that they traveled," the former Illinois Republican lawmaker said.

Asked about the claim, transportation department spokeswoman Lori Irving immediately shot it down.

"The policy of taxing motorists based on how many miles they have traveled is not and will not be Obama administration policy," she said.

While I might think it a good idea from the point of view of managing traffic and replacing the gas tax as a source of funding, it will likely be more expensive to administer and politically unpopular, suggesting now is not the right time to pursue such a strategy.

The gas tax should be milked for all it is worth, until enough vehicles have switched away that it ceases to be viable. Scientific experiments on the technology underlying road pricing, and on the behavioral response are all worthy endeavors, but deployment is clearly premature.

From the European Commission (via JM)
Travel time to major cities: A global map of Accessibility

From Memestreams Cloudy With a Chance of Satellite

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1145 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

...POSSIBLE SATELLITE DEBRIS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS RECEIVED CALLS THIS EVENING FROM THE PUBLIC CONCERNING POSSIBLE EXPLOSIONS AND...OR EARTHQUAKES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION HAS REPORTED TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT THESE EVENTS ARE BEING CAUSED BY FALLING SATELLITE DEBRIS. THESE PIECES OF DEBRIS HAVE BEEN CAUSING SONIC BOOMS...RESULTING IN THE VIBRATIONS BEING FELT BY SOME RESIDENTS...AS WELL AS FLASHES OF LIGHT ACROSS THE SKY. THE CLOUD OF DEBRIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE RECENT IN ORBIT COLLISION OF TWO SATELLITES ON TUESDAY...FEBRUARY 10TH WHEN KOSMOS 2251 CRASHED INTO IRIDIUM 33.

(h/t to CV)

From last week:

For decades, space experts have warned of orbits around the planet growing so crowded that two satellites might one day slam into one another, producing swarms of treacherous debris.

It happened Tuesday.

Nexus group (Pavithra Parthasarathi and David Levinson) recently completed a study for MnDOT on the
Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy. A version of this was recently presented at TRB.

The net is, in the Twin Cities, freeway traffic was underestimated while non-freeway traffic was overestimated. The reasons are many.

Abstract:
This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010 or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of Transportation Data and Analysis at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the inaccuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast inaccuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as highway type, functional classification and direction playing an influencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classifications such as freeways are subject to underestimation compared to lower volume roadways and lower functional classifications. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes.

Dubai Metro Lines and Stations Naming Rights Advertising Project

I have not seen this elsewhere in transportation (though obviously with stadia, the University of Phoenix was brilliant in this regard, implying they are a real university whose stadium the Arizona Cardinal happen to play in). The Dubai Metro is an investment of 15.5 billion AED (=4.2 billion USD). Some stations are already taken.

I can just see budget strapped cities doing this. No more 3rd street and Washington Avenue, we can now have Denny Hecker 'Nobody Walks' Street at Washington Mutual Avenue. And when the Twin Cities marathon goes by, we can say there is a 'run on WaMu.', or maybe there will be a 3 vehicle crash on 'Denny Hecker'.

From the AP China monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time

SHANGHAI, China (AP) — China overtook the U.S. in monthly vehicle sales in January for the first time, figures from China's auto industry association showed Tuesday, largely because of a plunge in American car sales.

China monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time
2 hours ago
SHANGHAI, China (AP) — China overtook the U.S. in monthly vehicle sales in January for the first time, figures from China's auto industry association showed Tuesday, largely because of a plunge in American car sales.

I recently saw this image on TV:

Note, it is a high definition segment (of Thomas and Friends), embedded on a low-definition program, broadcast on a high-definition digital television channel (Twin Cities Public Television, TPT-2), filtered through the low-definition analog channels of my cable-TV system (Comcast) onto a low-definition television (Sharp). The picture was taken with an iPhone.

This is progress. If there is a new generation of high definition television, will my programs, to retain backward compatibility, be even smaller, until eventually it is only a pixel on my screen?

From BBC Government plans travel database. The UK will be tracking everyone entering and leaving. My first thought was "cool, can we get access to the data", though of course "privacy concerns" will ensure only the security apparatus will have the data.

Just released, the Regent's Draft of the 2009 University of Minnesota Master Plan: Capital Planning and Project Management, University of Minnesota: Twin Cities

(I co-chaired the transportation advisory group, though did not write the document).

The relevant transportation section is here (17 MB pdf)

From NYT: In Renewed Hard Times, New Deal Architecture Faces Bulldozer

Green Hills, one of the New Deal new towns, is starting to see demolitions. Columbia, Maryland, much more recent, has already seen some. The balance between cities as living organisms and cities as historic monuments has to be drawn.

On Bruce Schneier Hacking an Electronic Road Sign. Now maybe someone can change the "Suspicious Activity Call 911" signs near the MSP Airport and this parody of a police state.

From The Swamp and CNN LaHood: No 'boondoggles' in stimulus

From TrafficWorld.Com

U.S. Air Cargo Falls 17 Percent

A collapse in trans-Pacific trade pushed cargo traffic for U.S. airlines down 17 percent in December, leading American carriers with their worst year for freight since 2001.

Class 8 Orders Drop 12 Percent

Total net orders for class 8 vehicles from all heavy truck manufacturers in North America dropped 12 percent in January, said an industry preliminary report.

Last month was the weakest January in the 30 years records have been kept, according to FTR Associates. The data includes the United States, Canada, Mexico and exports.

Net orders were down 66 percent from January 2008. Final data for January 2009 will be available from FTR later this month.

Traffic World OnLine - Rail & Intermodal

U.S. rail traffic fell 17.3 percent in the fourth week of 2009. Carloads were off 18.4 percent while intermodal loadings fell 16 percent. The Association of American Railroads estimated ton-miles decreased from 33.6 billion a year ago to 27.8 billion in the week ending Jan. 31.

Port Container Traffic Fell 8 Percent

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.06 million TEU in December, the last month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 13.9 percent from November and 17.2 percent from December 2007, and made December the 18th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. The last month to see a year-over-year increase was July 2007, when the 1.44 million TEU moved through the ports was up 3.4 percent from July 2006.

On today's New York Times, an ad:

Politics E-Mail

Keep up with the 2008 presidential election with the daily Politics e-mail newsletter. See Sample
XXXXXXXX@XXX.edu
Change E-mail Address | Privacy Policy

What is wrong with this picture? I seem to have read that Obama has been inaugurated and all? (I realize the 2008 Minnesota Senate election is not resolved)

I assume this is evidence that the Old York Times is not selling advertising, and therefore is likely to be losing money.

From WaPo Reduced Rail Hours Among Possible Cuts

And, from December 2008,

New Ridership Record Shows U.S. Still Lured to Mass Transit

More demand and a large fixed cost, low variable cost operation should lead to low marginal costs per additional rider and more revenue. External factors (more demand, declining petroleum costs) should make the deal even easier. WMATA raised fares last year.

Why can't WMATA make the math work? Is there a management problem?

From the Pioneer Press: Customers plan 'Save our Starbucks' rally in Stillwater

The company released this statement this afternoon in response to a Pioneer Press inquiry about the rally:

"Our Stillwater location is scheduled to close. The lease was set to expire on this store at the end of February, and we decided not to renew it. We are humbled by the support we've received from our partners and customers regarding the closure of this store. We recognize the impact this has on the community, and we value the feedback that we have received from our customers."

That frappe has power. This vignette says something about the addictive qualities of caffeine, but more about what is important to some people of Stillwater.

Even in Stillwater, home of large homes, from the article: "The coffee shop has become a second home to a lot of people"; or as planners might say, a third place.

I'm quoted in Popular Mechanics today in an article by Erik Sofge Shovel-Ready Projects Show Shortsighted Thinking - Why Shovel-Ready Infrastructure is Wrong (Right Now)

... The programs that would meet the bill’s 90-day restriction are, for the most part, an unappealing mix of projects that were either shelved after being fully designed and engineered, and have since become outmoded or irrelevant, or projects with limited scope and ambition. No one’s building a smart electric grid or revamping a water system on 90 days notice. The best example of a shovel-ready project, and what engineers believe could become the biggest recipient of the transportation-related portion of the bill’s funding, is road resurfacing—important maintenance work, but not a meaningful way to rein in a national infrastructure crisis. “In developing countries, there are roads that are so bad, they create congestion, because drivers are constantly forced to slow down,�? says David Levinson, an associate professor in the University of Minnesota’s civil engineering department. “That’s not the case here. If the road’s a little bit rougher, drivers will feel it, but that’s not going to cause you to go any slower. So the economic benefit of those projects is pretty low.�?

That might be acceptable to people focused purely on fostering rapid job growth‹but, ironically, such stimulus spending could fall short on that measure, as well. “In the 1930s, when you were literally building with shovels, that might have made sense. That was largely unskilled labor. Today, it’s blue collar, but it’s not unskilled,�? Levinson says. “The guy brushing the asphalt back and forth is unskilled, but the guy operating the steamroller isn’t. And there’s an assumption out there that construction workers are interchangeable between residential and highway projects. But a carpenter isn’t a whole lot of help in building a road.�?

From Going Underground Blog , I am truly sorry I missed seeing London get a real amount of snow.

After yesterday's "Arctic" conditions, with London's worst snowfall in 18 years, looks like we will have an easier journey into work this morning. Most of the London Underground seems to be working and at time of writing (7.20am) only the Circle Line is completely suspended due to a broken down train. There are part suspensions on the District, Bakerloo & Hammersmith & City Lines, so check the Tube's website before you leave home.

Here's the view from my study today, with the District Line coming in from Richmond, so err... luckily, I'll be able to get into town.

I like how in yesterday's interview above Boris manages some clever avoidance. Johnson says "We've actually been quite successful with the Tube network". The interviewer responds rather quickly with "If this was successful I'd like to see what unsuccessful was like".

Two quotes from Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky

"Anyone who predicts the death of cities has already met their spouse". (p. 195)

"In a pedestrian setting, running into someone is a good thing; in a car, not so much" (p.201).

Okay, the article from Groklaw (via Clay Shirky) The Stupidest Lawsuit Since the World Began is over 3 years old, but I didn't see it before, and I don't know how it resolved ...

The women, who live in Moselle and work five days a week at European Union offices in Luxembourg, are being sued by Transports Schiocchet Excursions, which runs a service along the route. It wants the women fined and their cars confiscated.

Two years ago a business tribunal threw out the company's case. It is now pursuing the women in a higher court, saying their action has cost it €2 million ($3.2 million).

The women explained that for many years cleaners used the company line for the 40-minute ride across the border, which cost them €110 a month.

"Using our cars is quicker and at least twice as cheap. And on the bus we didn't have the right to eat or even to speak," said Martine Bourguignon.

Yes, they were sued for carpooling rather than paying to ride the bus.

While absurd, it is not so absurd as to be unknown.

Bus monopolies in the US generally prohibit competitive for hire jitney and shared taxi services, as well as competing bus routes. See Curb Rights by Daniel Klein, Adrian Moore, and Binyam Reja for further discussion.