November 2010 Archives

California may build train to nowhere : ""

A few days before this month's election, the federal government announced that California would receive an additional $715 million for its high-speed rail project, contingent on the money being spent quickly on a segment in the San Joaquin Valley.

Why? You'd have to be terminally naive not to believe that the splashy announcement, made personally by an Obama administration official in Fresno, was to help an embattled local congressman, Democrat Jim Costa, stave off a very stiff Republican challenge.

Costa, a longtime bullet train advocate, did, in fact, eke out a narrow re-election win. And last week, the California High-Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) announced plans to spend that money and some other federal and state funds, $4.3 billion in all, to build a 54-mile segment from Madera to Corcoran. It was instructive on two fronts. It illustrated the pork barrel aspects of the scheme, with financing, routes and station sites dependent more on political pull than objective criteria. It also underscored the eagerness of bullet train boosters to turn dirt, thereby creating a moral commitment to complete the project despite its deficiencies.

This is an interesting act of Hubris on the part of the CAHSRA. If the entire line were to be funded with 100% certainty in short order, it would not matter which segment were built first, as they would all ultimately get built.

But 100% certainty is certainly lacking in this case, the funding stars are hardly aligned (much less the right-of-way acquired or the lawsuits settled). The risk is that this line will indeed be a line to approximately nowhere from nowhere. It will be great for the Fresno exurbanites living in Corcoran, Hanford, or Selma, or perhaps the dozens of tourists seeking to go to the Italian Swiss Colony outside of Madera.

Like Cortés who scuttled his ships to eliminate any idea of retreat, the authority is burning the public's money on a useless segment. (Unfortunately for the Aztecs, Cortés succeeded, others who unsuccessfully applied the same strategy are generally unmentioned in the history books). Presumably this is to help ensure further lines are built. (You have to build the rest to get anything useful). In contrast, a more rational strategy (one hesitates to use an unqualified "rational") would be to build the lines out of Los Angeles or San Francisco, which would have fallback use as commuter rail lines. No one (who earned their own money from anything more complicated than a lottery ticket or rewriting a dying relative's will and who retains their faculties) spending their own money would do something so arrogant or risky. Historically, privately built railroads always built the best segments first (those leading into or out of major cities or connecting mines with ports, or other sources of supply and demand), and then extended their systems treelike to connect more and more markets, eventually interconnecting. This is the natural order of emergent infrastructure systems, and ensures viability at the first and all subsequent stages. By forgoing the mostly rational strategy, the CHSRA, playing with OPM (Other People's Money) seeks to leverage future money from politicians who don't want an albatross-like white elephant around their necks. If all infrastructure that were begun were ultimately finished, this would be fine, but history is rife with half-finished and abandoned projects, begun with fanfare, sealed with ignominy. A few are below.

• Superconducting Super Collider
• Second Avenue Subway
• Zombie subdivisions
• Unfinished bridges
• Dead malls
• Unused highways

Nullspace (Chris Briem), a Pittsburgh-based urban economics blog discusses value capture and land value tax in Remembering when the Henry George Club ran Pittsburgh.

At the end he writes

Alas.. all that and the truth is even more complicated. If you really parse it, Henry George may be having a revival of sorts right here in Pennsylvania. When you really deconstruct the tax-math-accounting of it, a lot of TIF's and tax incentives are really a tiered tax by other means, though some Georgists react a bit badly to the analogy. We can debate TIF implementation, here and elsewhere, another day. That and things like the Pittsburgh tax abatement program (modeled a bit loosely on Philadelphia's groundbreaking tax abatement program) are effectively Georgian in intent, if not name.

Urbangram has A Short History of Intersection

"The Egyptian symbol for 'city', Richard Sennett points out in Conscience of the Eye (p. 46), consisted of a cross bounded by a circle, providing one of the earliest signs of the urban; intersection and enclosure -- grid and boundary -- come together in this hieroglyph. The notion of the urban as an intersection offers an insight into one of the longest-running themes in urbanism - centrality. Whilst Egyptians made a point of right-angled street intersections, the Roman grid plan (Hippodamus) was designed to explicitly generate centers at different scales, with the earliest phase of settlement locating itself at the intersection of two prominent axial streets, the cardo and the decumanus. To this day cores, hubs, and centers form ever-present concepts in urban discourse; all relate or allude to a set of slippery spatial phenomena we call 'centrality'." ...

Read the rest

At the intersection of Harvard and Washington Avenue, adjacent to the University of Minnesota campus, there is a safety problem with traffic signal pre-emption, described below. I reported this to the University of Minnesota Transportation and Parking, whom I am sure dutifully passed this up the line. However, I looked online to figure out who to report to directly, it is not obvious.

I go to MnDOT's page which says:

Question: I know of a traffic signal that has indications out or appears to be malfunctioning. Who do I contact?

Answer: First, you need to know which government agency owns and operates the traffic signal (city, county or MN/DOT). Generally, if a state highway has an approach to the traffic signal, then MN/DOT is likely to operate the signal. If no state highway is present, only county or city roads approach the signal, then the county in which the signal is located is likely to operate the signal. If no state highway or county road is present at the signal, only city streets approach the signal, then it is likely that the city in which the signal is located will operate the signal. Once the operation and ownership of the signal is determined, you can contact the agencies [sic] Traffic Engineering/Public Works department. Click here

Now if you "Click Here", you would expect to see who owns which signals. E.g., one would hope to see a map, I could click on the intersection in question, and it would tell me who owned the signal. The best I get is a list of counties and cities. Well even if I know which county and city I am in, (and I do, but I suspect most U of Mn students are only vaguely aware of the existence of Hennepin County) I still don't know who owns the signal, and the links are just to the county and city websites, not the traffic engineering groups. I think Washington Avenue is a city rather than county road, though the Washington Avenue bridge is a county facility. My next step is calling 311, so I hope that gets through (my confidence level is low).

Now the problem:

The design of a traffic signal pre-emption for emergency vehicles is supposed to save emergency vehicles time, by turning a red light green, subject to constraints. Typical verbiage is

• A green light is not guaranteed. Emergency vehicle drivers need to use caution not to over-rely on the system and need to be prepared to stop if provision of the preemption phase is delayed (i.e., awaiting time out of an in-progress pedestrian phase). Emergency vehicle preemption operation and limitations must be a part of initial and recurring emergency vehicle driver training.

Similarly New Jersey requires

If pre-emption is approved, a timing sequence needs to be developed that provides adequate time to allow for safe egress of the fire/rescue vehicles. Care should be taken to ensure that all timing plans have a sufficient guaranteed minimum green time to the main street to avoid the display of a “flash” green. All vehicular and pedestrian clearances times must be guaranteed.

The problem is that the in-progress pedestrian phase at this location is not in fact given time to clear. I was walking NB on the sidewalk adjacent to Harvard Ave. at the intersection with Washington (Thursday, Nov 18 about 12:30). The pedestrian phase gave me a walking man indicator. I and others began to cross. The phase should be at least 12 seconds (4 lanes at 12 ft each, at a human walking speed of 3 ft. per second). It normally is. However speeding along Washington Ave EB is an emergency vehicle with lights and siren blaring. The light immediately (say about 2 seconds into the ped phase) changes from green to red (red to green on Washington). The pedestrians have now been stranded, since unlike vehicles, they cannot clear the intersection in 2 seconds. So I and others are now on a pedestrian crosswalk, which we entered legally with the light, while cars on Washington think they have a green light, and being cars driven by drivers, and being treated like idiots, behaving like idiots proceed to go, trusting the traffic light rather than observing conditions around them (like the mass of pedestrians in the crosswalk). Even if the pedestrian were there illegally, the car would not be legally allowed to hit them.

Were this the only problem at this intersection, I would just assume I missed something. In fact this is the second problem I have observed and reported in just over a week. On Nov. 10 just before 1:30 I observed that the light was mishandling pre-emption, in this case I think it was transit pre-emption. Basically the pedestrian phase (on the north side of Washington) went from "hand" to "flash" and then back to "hand", as a bus was coming through (hence my thought it is related to signal pre-emption, buses pre-empting the gap-out or max-out condition). The queue on Harvard was quite long, and the pedestrians were backed up at the signal (I pushed the actuator several times, but it didn't seem to come through).

Old Hecker dealership turns to transit : ""

H/T Daring Fireball, from MSNBC Chance of Dying From Airport Backscatter Radiation About the Same as Chance of Getting Killed by Terrorists

"Peter Rez, a physics professor at Arizona State University in Tempe, did his own calculations and found the exposure to be about one-fiftieth to one-hundredth the amount of a standard chest X-ray. He calculated the risk of getting cancer from a single scan at about 1 in 30 million, "which puts it somewhat less than being killed by being struck by lightning in any one year," he told me.

While the risk of getting a fatal cancer from the screening is minuscule, it's about equal to the probability that an airplane will get blown up by a terrorist, he added. "So my view is there is not a case to be made for deploying them to prevent such a low probability event.""

I'm quoted in Popular Science: Still Waiting: Will America's Next-Gen Bullet Trains Ever Leave the Station?

I assigned a group project in CE3201, Introduction to Transportation Engineering to predict boardings at the proposed Central Corridor LRT stations. Each group had one station, and was free to develop a methodology (after having learned about travel demand models). The predictions (in the final column) can be compared with official forecasts. I promised dinner to whichever group was closest to the actual boardings after the line opens (but they must claim it). The forecasts were widely varying in methodology and quality (the same can be said for some official forecasts in general, though the consistency of official forecasts here is much greater of course).

Scientists propose one-way trips to Mars to jump-start new era of humans in space

By NICHOLAS K. GERANIOS , Associated Press Last update: November 15, 2010 - 9:01 AM

PULLMAN, Wash. - Invoking the spirit of "Star Trek" in a scholarly article entitled "To Boldly Go," two scientists contend human travel to Mars could happen much more quickly and cheaply if the missions are made one-way. They argue that it would be little different from early settlers to North America, who left Europe with little expectation of return.

...

"humans must begin colonizing another planet as a hedge against a catastrophe on Earth."

Finally some clear thinking on space exploration. The point isn't science (which is wonderful, but not cost effective, we can do better science with the resources), or exploration for the sake of exploration (which is wonderful, but really should be done with private money), but one of risk aversion in case we or someone (Vogons) or something else (giant meteorites, solar flares, etc.) screws up the earth.

From the Pioneer PressNorthstar rail line's birthday wish: more riders

"As the Northstar Commuter Rail line nears its first birthday, ridership has fallen below expectations.

A week after it was announced that plans to expand the rail line to St. Cloud have been shelved, officials released numbers showing ridership is about 5 percent below projections. Officials blame the economy and expect the gap to widen.

For the first nine months of 2010, about 560,000 people rode the Northstar line, said Metro Transit spokesman Bob Gibbons. That figure is below the expected 590,000 riders.

Throughout the summer, the Northstar was used by Twins fans attending sold-out games at Target Field. But now that the baseball season is over, officials expect overall ridership for the year to fall about 20 percent below the original projection of 890,000 riders, to 715,000.

"We have always considered commuter rail a long-term investment meant to attract jobs and complement our region's quality of life," Felix Schmiesing, a Sherburne County commissioner and member of the Northstar Corridor Development Authority, said last week when it was announced thathat the expansion plans were put on hold.

The NCDA said last Friday that it will not apply for federal funds to extend the 40-mile line, which currently runs from downtown Minneapolis to Big Lake. The agency said the decision was made because the projected ridership of such an expansion did not meet the Federal Transit Authority's "strict standards.""

Notably also Jim Oberstar lost his seat in Congress just before the agency made its decision. Somehow the article failed to note this.

"Despite the ridership shortfall, expenses for the commuter line will be within the 2010 budget of $16.8 million. Gibbons attributes this to the effective management of costs as well as distance-based fares.

Metro Transit expects Northstar's ridership next year to be about 750,000"

$16.8 million for 715,000 riders is $23.50 per rider. Note that most trips are two-way, so this is $47.00 per person. The fare on Northstar is $7.00 weekday from Big Lake and decreasing on distance and on the weekend, or roundtrip is worst case $14, assuming no other subsidies, passes, etc. So the subsidy per day per person is at least $33, which is even worse than I imagined.

Somehow the article failed to note this as well.

Timothy Lee bets against self-driving cars, suggesting they won't be up and running within 16 years.

From MnDaily Nice Ride program tops first-year goals

Nice Ride Minnesota, the largest bicycle-sharing program in the United States, ended the season with 100,817 checkouts, beating its goal by 817.

The organization has 14 employees (who balance bikes across the network), so they are serving over 7000 rides per employee per season, or if they did this year round 20 rides per employee per day (probably closer to 30 rides given they are closed for 1/3 of the year). This is less productive than buses, but more productive than taxis.

Alan Pisarski onLivability and All That

Livability is one of those once innocuous words, like sustainability, that now receive almost unquestioned acceptance in the bureaucracy, academia and the media. After all, words like sustainability and livability have no acceptable negative form. Who could be in favor of anything unlivable, insensitive, unhealthy or unsustainable?

Back in the late seventies, when I served as Special Assistant for Information Policy in the Office of the Secretary, our shibboleth was "balanced". Can anyone be in favor of unbalanced transportation? It didn't matter that the word had no meaning and we couldn't explain it to others, it still became standard in the rhetoric of secretarial officers. In an unkind moment a reporter asked the present DOT Secretary Ray LaHood what he meant by livable, given that the department had just added it to its criteria for giving away money. He replied vaguely it was something about being able to walk to work and the park and a restaurant, to a doctor and a few more things.

well worth reading the rest ... a full dismantling of the flavor of the month.

Heritage Foundation doesn't like HSR either. The High-Speed Case for State Control of Transportation Funding

That brief article links to a longer one by Ron Utt which I had not previously seen: America's Coming High-Speed Rail Financial Disaster

I don't know why HSR support breaks down along party lines, there should be a good political science theory in here somewhere though.

Robin Hanson on the future of transportation and cities

Strategic misrepresentation is not just for High-speed rail projects, Chuck Marohn deconstructs a benefit/cost analysis for a TIGER-II grant and finds it wanting ...Costs and Benefits See the previous parts as well:

part 4

part 3

part 2

part 1

Via David King from 3quarksdaily

Our paper on The effects of daylight saving time on vehicle crashes in Minnesota, which has just been accepted to the Journal of Safety Research was discussed on today's John Hines show on WCCO radio.

Daylight saving time (DST), implemented as an energy saving policy, impacts many other aspects of life; one is road safety. Based on vehicle crash data in Minnesota from 2001 to 2007, this paper evaluates long- and short-term effects of DST on daily vehicle crashes. To provide evidence to explain the causes of more/fewer crashes in DST, we examine the impact of DST on crashes in four periods of a day: 3 am-9 am, 9 am-3 pm, 3 pm-9 pm, 9 pm-12 pm. The effects of risk and exposure to traffic are also separated. Our statistical models not only include weather conditions and dummy variables for days in DST as independent variables, but also consider traffic volumes on major roads in different periods of a day. Our major finding is that the short-term effect of DST on crashes on the morning of the first DST is not statistically significant. Moreover, it is interesting to notice that while DST per se is associated with fewer crashes during dusk, this is in part offset because it is also associated with more traffic on roads (and hence more crashes). Our path analysis shows that overall DST reduces crashes.

From the Strib (h/t HumanTransit) Metro area is in line for color-coded transit

University of Minnesota graduate Cole Hiniker is quoted:

"As we have a more complicated system that includes different modes, such as light rail and commuter rail, we need to illustrate to the customer how they can use all the services in an efficient manner," Cole Hiniker, a Met Council transportation planner, told Dakota County Board members recently as they learned how the plan could affect transit on Cedar Avenue

There are currently 127 bus routes, 1 LRT and 1 CR line in the Twin Cities, I can get a box of crayons with 128 colors, but somehow I don't think that is the best way to proceed. Clearly colors can be used for the top lines, but the rest of the network is confusing to non-regular users.

We should think about simplifying the network structure or network presentation, not just branding, when we organize things.

Unfortunately, you still have attitudes like this:

"If you're going to make the branding look alike on [BRT] buses and LRT, make the actual vehicle look the same," Commissioner Paul Krause said. "I have said this many, many times, and it still scares me that we're going to get a [regular] bus or a bus-looking BRT."

Buses are not LRT, they should not look like LRT. If Krause were in London, he would not want buses to look like the Underground, or the DLR, would he?

From the Telegraph: Smart travel card to ease global travel - a proposal to standardize contactless payment for transit systems globally, which would reduce costs to operators and be convenient for world travelers. You would think the credit card companies would be on this already, but apparently not.

The wave overcomes Oberstar

Eighteen-term House Democrat James Oberstar of Minnesota has lost to Republican Chip Cravaack.

Oberstar, chairman of the powerful House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, was edged out of office by just more than 4,000 votes after surviving two GOP waves in his 25-year tenure, the first in the Reagan Era and the second in 1994.

Oberstar becomes the third chairman to be ousted from office, joining Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt of South Carolina and Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri.

Oberstar rarely, if ever, faced a difficult re-election bid. In 2008, for example, the veteran Democrat won his district with more than 67 percent of the vote, beating his challenger that cycle by approximately 116,000 votes.

The Telegraph reports on 50 years of traffic wardens

It was in September, 1960 - 50 years ago this year - that parking enforcement as we know it today began, when the first traffic wardens marched onto British streets.

In fact there were 40 of them and they inspired fear and fascination in equal measure as, in distinctive military-style uniforms with rows of gilt buttons, yellow shoulder flashes and yellow cap bands and with the power to issue £2 fines, they went in search of law-breaking motorists on behalf of the Metropolitan Police.

The very first ticket was issued to Dr Thomas Creighton who was answering an emergency call to help a heart attack victim at a West End hotel. The medic's Ford Popular, left outside as he tended the victim, was ticketed but - just as happens today when mean or thoughtless wardens ticket hearses, ambulances (or even rabbits in their hutches...) - there was such a public outcry that he was subsequently let off.

Some things never change. Today, in the Borough of Westminster, where it all started, 200 parking attendants - or Civil Enforcement Officers (CEOs), as they are now known - patrol the streets.

And while their appearance has changed - witness the blue jacket, polo shirt, jumper, black trousers and baseball cap - and they work for the council instead of the police, their intent has not.

Last year Westminster issued 500,272 parking tickets, generating £69,301,000 and a surplus of £30,170,000. But it's just one of 34 authorities issuing parking fines in London, which issued 4,151,901 tickets worth an estimated £337,911,693*.

A further 245 councils issuing tickets in England and Wales, by means of an army of about 18,000 parking attendants, issued 4,035,555 parking tickets in 2009, raising an estimated £267,761,347 in the process. Nationwide, Telegraph Motoring figures* suggest, drivers cough up £605,673,040 for parking misdemeanours.

Without driver or map, vans go from Italy to China

Four driverless electric vans successfully ended a 13,000-kilometre test drive from Italy to China -- a modern-day version of Marco Polo's journey around the world -- with their arrival at the Shanghai Expo this week.

The vehicles, equipped with four solar-powered laser scanners and seven video cameras that work together to detect and avoid obstacles, are part of an experiment aimed at improving road safety and advancing automotive technology.

Jason Hong identifies Four Common Misconceptions of Graduate School

1. Grades still matter in PhD programs.

2. In computer science, a lot of students think that the majority of their time will be spent programming.

3. Some students come into graduate school thinking that there will be a lot of structure and that they just need to do the work assigned to them.

4. Some students believe that graduate school is primarily an individual activity with just more coursework.

He is writing about CS, but it applies to other fields.