June 2012 Archives

Debunking the urban revival

David King debunks @ Getting from here to there: : Some Thoughts on City v. Suburban Growth:

Lots of media outlets are picking up the story first reported in the Wall Street Journal that cities are growing faster than suburbs. See herehere, and here for samples. A few things about these data that suggest we should interpret the results with caution. First, these are growth rates, not absolute numbers. Because central cities make up a minority share of regional population most population growth--by a lot--is happening in the suburbs. Consider Atlanta, the second faster growing city compared with its suburbs according to the chart at top. Atlanta has 432,427 people as of July 2011 and grew at 2.4%. The suburbs have 4,926,778 in July 2011 and grew at 1.3%. Here is the data source. This means that the metro growth was 74,426 for the year, 10,378 settled in Atlanta and 64,048 settled in the suburbs. In percentage terms, 14% of the growth happened in the central city and 86% happened in the suburbs. That doesn't suggest a sea change in attitude

I agree with David, it would be nice if it were true, but the evidence is not there.

Linklist: June 29, 2012

xkcd

My research into Schoolhouse Rock made it onto today's POLITICO Morning Transportation

Congress passed the transportation bill with all deliberate speed, a mere 1003 days late. Somehow this is symbolic of our transportation dysfunctions. "MAP-21 will modernize and reform our current transportation system to help create jobs, accelerate economic recovery, and build the foundation for long-term prosperity." This one will expire in 730 days, I am told. In short, everyone hates it.

CultivatingChange

Recently published:

Huang, Arthur and David Levinson (2012) STREET: Where simulation meets reality Cultivating Change in the Academy (eds. Duin, Ann Hill et al.)

Simulations and games are receiving increasing attention in teaching in higher education. In this context, we developed a series of simulation modules (STREET) in transportation engineering education and applied them in teaching undergraduate and graduate transportation courses at the University of Minnesota. After several years, we contend that they represent an effective pedagogical tool in transportation education. In this chapter we describe our motivation for this work, the program's development process, dissemination and impacts, and our future work.

Asha Weinstein Agrawal: What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 3 of a National Survey :

"The survey results show that a majority of Americans would support higher taxes for transportation—under certain conditions. For example, a gas tax increase of 10¢ per gallon to improve road maintenance was supported by 58 percent of respondents, whereas support levels dropped to just 20 percent if the revenues were to be used more generally to maintain and improve the transportation system. For tax options where the revenues were to be spent for undefined transportation purposes, support levels varied considerably by what kind of tax would be imposed, with a sales tax much more popular than either a gas tax increase or a new mileage tax.
"

Linklist: June 27, 2012

Time: Physics of the Love Parade Stampede Dirk Helbing on the stampede.

AT sends me to OpenPlans: Visualizing urban accessibility with OpenTripPlanner Analyst [These are what we call mobility maps, but are nice nonetheless, see http://a2d.umn.edu .]

Alexis Madrigal @ The Atlantic: The Mechanics and Meaning of That Ol' Dial-Up Modem Sound

[I well remember the mating calls of modems in love from my days working at Hayes Microcomputer Products, when 2400 baud was high speed.]

I am just a Bill on Capitol Hill

Schoolhouse

I rewatched Schoolhouse Rock with my kids last night. I had not realized that the Bill, sitting on Capitol Hill, was in fact a bill to make school buses stop at railroad crossings. I don't know if this is an actual federal law, or there is some federal monetary incentive to ensure states pass such laws, (Spoilers: in the cartoon, it is in the end passed), but it is a state law almost everywhere.

Fewer travelers take off from MSP

Adam Belz @ StarTribune interviewed me about: Fewer travelers take off from MSP :

"Air travel was hurt by the April spike in fuel prices, said David Levinson, a professor at the University of Minnesota's Center for Transportation Studies.

'The price of fuel is certainly very volatile, and that doesn't necessarily say something about the broader economy,' Levinson said. 'The sensitivity of enplanements is in part due to the airfares that are charged.'"

Domestic aviation is another sector that has matured and is likely near if not at peak. MSP's position is not helped by the Delta near-monopoly in lots of markets, but at least we have a hub and direct flights.


USDomesticEnplanements

I got interviewed by Rupa Shenoy of Minnesota Public Radio a few weeks ago:

Where's the logic of construction season?:

"There are those who ask if all of this is necessary. David Levinson, a civil engineering professor at the University of Minnesota who has worked with MnDOT, points out that once a road is closed it is cheaper to perform as many repairs as possible. On the I-94 project, MnDOT did not just increase capacity, it used the opportunity to upgrade the drainage system even though it might not have been at the point where it was absolutely needed.

'The question is: are our standards too high,' Levinson said. 'We demand that lanes be certain widths and we demand that pavements be certain thicknesses and drainage be certain ways — which are really all nice things to have, but are also costly.

'And the cost is not just the money spent but the delay and people who suffer through the construction process.'"

Linklist: June 25, 2012

Prescott Morrill @ streets.mn: Nicollet, the Greenway and K-Mart: A Vision for Discussion

Strib: Ramsey to allow golf carts on city streets [This is the City of Ramsey, in Anoka County, not Ramsey County]


GGW: Citizens make big impact with low-cost bus stop seating (See also this from the idea's developer.)


Linklist: June 19, 2012

Reading Sky Mall

Sky Mall is full of useful products, those which we ask "how could we live without?". To wit, from my most recent travels, the following transportation products were on offer:

Carlashes (To bring the automobile anthropomorphic into the real world)

Carlashes

Street Strider (to combine exercise with travel, since we don't have anything which does that already) [This is not so terrible, I suppose for the kinesthetically challenged]

StreetStrider

Skate sail (called by Gadling the worst SkyMall product ever)

Skatesail


Orbit wheels


Orbitwheels

Linklist: June 18, 2012

NY Times: Experimental Campaigns Pay Drivers to Avoid Rush-Hour Traffic

[This idea has been around for a while in various forms. The problem is, it can be gamed (I won't drive in peak hour, pay me ... even though I wouldn't have anyway), and who pays for the carrot.]

Places: Design Observer gives us some recent book reviews: Reviews: ReThinking a Lot, Reinventing the Automobile

Two views on Transit in Apple Maps: Greater Greater Washington: Apple dropping Google Transit is actually good for transit and Cocoanetics Public Transit in iOS 6

Now at streets.mn: Notes on Walking about Harvard Square: ""

LInklist: June 15, 2012

Lewis Lehe @ PriceRoads: Nassim Taleb and Infrastructure. He complains about lack of what OR folks would call "slack" in the system. We have so optimized the network that it is no longer robust to slight disruptions.

Alex Tabarrok @ Marginal Revolution The Google-Trolley Problem [will the Google smart car kill the big guy to save five small guys?]

The Lorry Anthropomorphic


Uhaulx


Firetruck

Imatruck


Elizabeth


Trucks, like other vehicles, have been anthropomorphized. The Anthropomorphic Uhaul has drawn ire. On Sodor, Elizabeth the Vintage Lorry was already old stock. Trucks of course were major rivals to trains, so Thomas and Friends' prejudices are understandable.

To be clear, the anthropomorphic vehicle is not always goodness and light, e.g. Maximum Overdrive. There is an entire genre of horror movies about possessed vehicles, including: "Car, Maximum Overdrive, Duel, Christine, Black Cadillac and Blood Car to name just a few."

One should also see: The Taco Truck Anthropomorphic

Carticulate


A new design firm, Carticulate, has pieced together planning documents and laid out Twin Cities (GreaterMSP for corporate types) transit maps in a much nicer way than the Metropolitan Council has … The Metro: Twin Cities Transit Visualized. Their white paper is here.

While there are still bugs (I assume Bottineau is the Blue Line extended, and will go to Brooklyn Center, not Maple Grove; Northstar has not exceeded projections; not all the fonts are consistent in size), the elements of the improved design can be seen on this and other maps they have on their website.

[I have complained about bad maps before. With better design like Carticulate's we can just argue the substance of the lines.]

I would love to see this for buses, and their work on improving bus stop signage.

Linklist: June 13, 2012

PeerJ Blog A new, respectable, open-access journal (in biology and medicine) that charges authors "memberships" rather than publication charges. Memberships on the order of $100.

Wired: Apple, Google Just Killed Portable GPS Devices

wfaa.com Dallas - Fort Worth: Pedestrians face danger on Orange Line 'path' in Las Colinas

"Meanwhile, joggers question why the rails are so accessible if they’re intended to be off-limits. DART says it may consider changing the design if it becomes a bigger problem."

AbbeyRoad


In 1968 there was a famous Computer Science article Go To Statement Considered Harmful by Edsger W. Dijkstra (of algorithm fame). It says in part:

My second remark is that our intellectual powers are rather geared to master static relations and that our powers to visualize processes evolving in time are relatively poorly developed. For that reason we should do (as wise programmers aware of our limitations) our utmost to shorten the conceptual gap between the static program and the dynamic process, to make the correspondence between the program (spread out in text space) and the process (spread out in time) as trivial as possible.

In early 21st Century America, pedestrian crosswalks may be marked or unmarked. Whether a crosswalk is marked is functionally based on the whim of the traffic department. A fuller discussion of issues about "how" to use crosswalks (from the Town of Brookline, Massachusetts) is here, but not "when" to use them, hence my use of the term "whim", which says engineering studies are required, but does not have hard and fast rules about application.

Interesting the Brookline document asserts:

Marked crosswalks are viewed widely as "safety devices," and most municipalities give the pedestrian the right-of-way when within them. However, there is strong evidence that these facts prompt many pedestrians to feel overly secure when using a marked crosswalk. As a result, pedestrians will often place themselves in a hazardous position by believing that motorists can and will stop in all cases, even when it may be impossible to do so. It is not unusual for this type of aggressive pedestrian behavior to contribute to a higher incidence of pedestrian accidents and cause a greater number of rear-end collisions. In contrast, a pedestrian using an unmarked crosswalk generally feels less secure and less certain that the motorist will stop and thereby exercise more caution and waiting for safe gaps in the traffic stream before crossing. The end result is fewer accidents at unmarked crosswalks.

Implicitly the document blames pedestrians for asserting their rights, rather than drivers for violating them.

I posit that if you are a trained, but human driver, whose "intellectual powers are rather geared to master static relations" you will generally respect crosswalks. You will believe, just as all stop signs are marked, all legal crosswalks are marked. As "our powers to visualize processes evolving in time are relatively poorly developed" you will disrespect unmarked crosswalks, since if they were legitimate, you reason, they would be marked. You may not even notice them if they come from side streets for which you have no stop sign of traffic signal. They only appear relevant when there is a person surprising you in the road. Hence you will be aggressive to pedestrians trying to cross at unmarked crosswalks, as you will (wrongly) believe you have the right-of-way. Pedestrians will in turn be intimidated as suggested by the Brookline document above. Research about driver and pedestrian behavior can be found in this paper by Mitman et al. It notes:

Driver yielding behavior was a statistically significant variable at all six observation sites. For all road types, pedestrians in the marked crosswalk were more likely than pedestrians in the unmarked crosswalk to have drivers immediately yield the right-of-way to them.

and

Average gap acceptance was a statistically significant variable at five of the observation sites. At all five locations, pedestrians in the unmarked crosswalk were more likely than pedestrians in the marked crosswalk to wait for larger gaps in traffic before crossing. This finding was consistent across all road types.

The empirical findings are sound as far as they go. I disagree with the recommendations.

The problem is inconsistent ambiguity.

Solution A. Mark all crosswalks.

If we were completely consistent about where pedestrians might be found, (i.e. crosswalks) that would be acceptable, drivers and pedestrians would both understand the law. It would be clearly spelled out to drivers where pedestrians might be, including smaller intersections that might otherwise be raced by. It would be bad from a pedestrian rights perspective, as it over channelizes walkers and gives too much power to cars.

By implication, it requires pedestrians to use only marked crosswalks. It in a sense delegitimizes jaywalking. It increases pedestrian travel times. As Peter Norton notes in Fighting Traffic:

"Before the American city could be physically reconstructed to accommodate automobiles, its streets had to be socially reconstructed as places where cars belong." "Until then, streets were regarded as public spaces." [Quoted in Planning Pool]

In practice, we will not mark all crosswalks. The vast majority of intersections in the US are unmarked, and no one wants to spend the money to mark them all. Hence if we claim to adopt solution A, we will in fact resign ourselves to inconsistent ambiguity (false certainty) or crosswalk markings.

Solution B. Unmark all crosswalks.

In contrast, if we were completely (i.e. consistently) ambiguous about where pedestrians would be, that would be good from both a safety perspective, and in the long run, a pedestrian rights perspective. While in the mixed environment, pedestrian might wait more, in the no crosswalks environment, pedestrians will be cautious where they are now reckless. But pedestrians would also be more assertive in more places (those without crosswalks now) as they would know that drivers would be also be more cautious. This strategy will make both drivers and pedestrians more aware of their surroundings since pedestrians might be anywhere. (See shared space.)


In addition to unmarking all crosswalks, we should put up periodic reminder signs/messages to drivers when entering new districts, leaving freeways, etc. that pedestrians have the right-of-way. We might put up markers where pedestrians have died to somber-up drivers. (Further, we ought to develop some hand-signal communication protocol so pedestrians can signal drivers they are about to enter the roadway. Reuben Collins has a nice discussion here.).



It is the false expectation of consistency that causes many of the 4,280 pedestrian deaths per year in the United States.

I strongly prefer Solution B. Do we have any examples of this in the United States over a widespread area? A single street with shared space would be insufficient to draw conclusions.


Comment: this is the same argument as about Class III Bikeways. Since Class III Bikeways give bicyclists no advantage, they imply to drivers that on any unmarked road, they have rights over bikes (when they don't).

Comment: Yes I did see a driver yell at a pedestrian for crossing an unmarked crosswalk again today, and the intimidated pedestrian ran after trying to yield the road.

I-94 open to traffic

I-94 across the Mississippi restored to its 2007-2008 capacity.



- dml

Thank you Transportationistas. According to Technorati, The Transportationist is ranked 5358. We have an Authority of 418.

Before you say, "5358, that's terrible", consider, this is out of all 1,302,266 blogs indexed by Technorati, which puts us in the top 1/2 of 1 percent.

Look out HuffPo, here we come.

Linklist: June 8, 2012

Via BS, from Do the Math MPG of a Human :

"On Do the Math, three previous posts have focused on transportation efficiency of gasoline cars, electric cars, and on the practicalities of solar-powered cars. What about personal-powered transport—namely, walking and biking? After stuffing myself over Thanksgiving, I am curious to know how potent human fuel can be. How many miles per gallon do we get as our own engines of transportation?"

Businessweek: The Gas Station of the Future Just Opened

TPM Idea Lab: Argonne National Laboratory Pivots From Electric To Natural Gas Vehicles:

"‘Our conclusion is that natural gas as a transportation fuel has both adequate abundance and cost advantages that make a strong case to focus interest in the technology as a real game changer in US energy security,’ said Mike Duoba, an engineer at the auto research center at Argonne National Laboratory near Chicago, Illinois."

The Omnibus Anthropomorphic

MagicSchoolBus

Continuing our multipart series, there are a few modes left.

Catbus

Magic School Bus is a transformer, who can not only be a bus, but take on other sizes and shapes to ferry its children on fantastical, yet educational, scientific field trips.

Cat Bus in My Neighbor Totoro is perhaps not anthropomorphized but feline-o-morphized. I am not sure if this is a bus-like a cat or a cat-like bus. Anyway, watch My Neighbor Totoro.

Bertie and Bulgy are two bus characters from Sodor, but they are diminished in the television versions of this rail-supremacist tale. Bertie merely is inferior to Thomas, but Bulgy is the butt of much jokes, being turned into a chicken coop. The magazine writers seem to have redeemed him into a play bus.


Playbus

Bertie

Linklist: June 7, 2012

Linklist: June 6, 2012

Opposition to the Gateway LRT is starting to get organized: RIP Gateway Corridor: There is a petition at the previous link. Sven Streat writes:

"If Central Corridor was misguided, a plan to put a light rail train in a residential neighborhood is absurd. Front yards should not be rail yards.

Gateway Corridor is a $1.2 billion, 25+ ton “light” rail train that would run through residential neighborhoods, very close to several schools and hundreds of homes, and cut access to streets and businesses -- zig-zagging from St. Paul's Union Depot to E. 7th St. to White Bear Av., then down to I-94 and out to Woodbury.

Putting a train on residential streets doesn't leave room for traffic, emergency vehicles, parking, school buses, truck access to businesses, and puts a giant barrier across the Eastside of St. Paul."

David A. King @ Getting from here to there: Queuing, Congestion and Productivity:

"Ultimately, however, not all queues are created equally, and in some cases congestion queues demonstrate economically vibrant areas, and in some cases congestion queues represent scarcity, lack of options and wasted opportunities. The optimal amount of congestion is not zero. If there isn't any congestion or queues in an area the area will seem dead, so we do want some congestion and waiting. A more nuanced understanding of the challenges presented by queues and congestion is needed."

Tim Lee @ Forbes: Infrastructure Socialism and the New York Subway:

"The New York metropolitan area has generated massive quantities of wealth over the last century, and the city’s wealth-creation capacity is enhanced by the network effects created by having a large number of smart people living and working in close proximity. A subway-less New York would not only have a smaller population, it would likely be poorer per capita, as each New Yorker would have fewer potential employers, employees business partners, customers, and so forth. Maybe over the long run, those subsidies paid for themselves through the expansion of the city’s tax base.

In any event, I’d like to see more libertarian exploration of the tricky questions raised by this kind of infrastructure project. As far as I know, no libertarian has written a history of subways or a white paper describing an optimal regulatory scheme for subways. That seems like a significant omission."

USA Today: Public transportation use up across the nation in 2011 :

"Americans last year took 235 million more trips on buses, trains and subways than in 2010. That's the most ridership since 2008, when gas prices soared to a national average of $4.11 a gallon in July."
[Where are the press releases when transit ridership drops? Ridership rising and falling with gas prices hardly indicates it is people's preferred mode. David King has a more intelligent response.]

Kurzweil: Mars One plans to establish human settlement on Mars in 2023:

"Netherlands-based Mars One hopes to establish the first human settlement on Mars in 2023. It has created a technical plan for this ambitious mission that is ‘as simple as possible’ and says it has identified potential suppliers, such as SpaceX, for every component of the mission."

Urban Demographics: US Newspapers, 1690-2011: ""

Diana Lind @ Greater Greater Washington: Deregulate our streets! :

"If we opened our streets and rails more transportation operators, undoubtedly it would benefit our intertwined problems of high prices, congestion and slow service.
[The best book on this is Curb Rights by Klein Moore and Reja]

Matt Yglesias @ Slate: Passenger Aviation in the United States: 40 Years of Failure: "… basically the entire passenger aviation industry in the United States is [unprofitable over the long term]. For decades people have been flying around the country in airplanes and yet in the aggregate the whole thing is a stunning business failure. Southwest has made money and basically nobody else has. " [There is data on airline profitability going back to the 1920s I can no longer find (not at IATA, not at archive.org, and would appreciate a link to]

Yonah Freemark @ The Transport Politic: Chicago Plans to Shut Red Line South to Perform Quick Rehab:

"In less than a year’s time, the Chicago Transit Authority will eliminate service on the portions of the Red Line that run through the city’s south side, affecting roughly 80,000 daily journeys for a period of five months. The effort is designed to allow for the quick renovation of this rapid transit segment, replacing about 10 miles of degraded track with desperately needed new infrastructure. It’s a risky move, likely to enflame tensions in an area of the city that has suffered decades of economic difficulties. But if the CTA pulls the project off successfully, Chicago may be setting a precedent for other cities to follow."

Herbert Mohring

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Herb Mohring

Lee Munnich passes on news that famed transportation economist, Herb Mohring, passed away on June 4. His biography in wikipedia is below:

Herbert Mohring: "Herbert Mohring was a transportation economist who taught at the University of Minnesota from 1961-1994. He received his Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1959.

He is widely known for his identification of what was dubbed the Mohring effect of increasing returns in public transportation (see: Mohring (1972) for details).

Mohring and Harwitz (1962) also showed that the revenues from the first-best congestion tax exactly cover the construction costs of highways when highways possess constant returns to scale.

Important Works


  • Mohring, Herbert, Optimization and Scale Economies in Urban Bus Transportation, American Economic Review 62, no. 4 (September 1972): 591-604.

  • Mohring, Herbert, The Peak Load Problem with Increasing Returns and Pricing Constraints, American Economic Review 60, no. 4 (September 1970): 693-705.

  • Mohring, H. and Harwitz, M., Highway Benefits: An Analytical Framework, Ch 2, pp 57–90. (1962)"

Much of his widely cited scholarly work can be accessed here.

A review of a paper extending Mohring's work: Cost recovery from congestion tolls with random capacity and demand and risk aversion by Robin Lindsey was given at the session in honor of Herb Mohring International Transport Economics Conference. June 16, 2009.

A policy presentation by Herb's friend David Lewis presented at the same session: America's Traffic Congestion Problem: Toward a Framework for Nationwide Reform.


Update 6/15/2012: Obituary published in Star Tribune.

I am going to be at this Monday and Tuesday of next week, as a discussant on a paper about transport and land development.

Lincoln Institute of Land Policy:

"Infrastructure and Land Policies: The International Land Policy Conference

Date(s): June 4 - 5, 2012

Time: 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM

Location(s): The Charles Hotel, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Tuition: FREE

Participation in this program is by invitation only."


I wrote more about Accessibility Futures : @ | streets.mn.

David Levinson

Network Reliability in Practice

Evolving Transportation Networks

Place and Plexus

The Transportation Experience

Access to Destinations

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Financing Transportation Networks

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