A Portfolio Theory of Route Choice

PortfolioTheory

Recently published:

Although many individual route choice models have been proposed to incorporate travel time variability as a decision factor, they are typically still deterministic in the sense that the optimal strategy requires choosing one particular route that maximizes utility. In contrast, this study introduces an individual route choice model where choosing a portfolio of routes instead of a single route is the best strategy for a rational traveler who cares about both journey time and lateness when facing stochastic network conditions. The proposed model is compared with UE and SUE models and the difference in both behavioral foundation and model characteristics is highlighted. A numerical example is introduced to demonstrate how such model can be used in traffic assignment problem. The model is then tested with GPS data collected in metropolitan Minneapolis–St. Paul, Minnesota. Our data suggest there is no single dominant route (defined here as a route with the shortest travel time for a 15 day period) in 18% of cases when links travel times are correlated. This paper demonstrates that choosing a portfolio of routes could be the rational choice of a traveler who wants to optimize route decisions under variability.


JEL-Code: R41, R48, D63
Keywords: Transportation planning, route choice, travel behavior, link performance

David Levinson

Network Reliability in Practice

Evolving Transportation Networks

Place and Plexus

The Transportation Experience

Access to Destinations

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Financing Transportation Networks

View David Levinson's profile on LinkedIn

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by David Levinson published on April 18, 2013 8:20 AM.

Moving beyond mobility: measuring accessibility in U.S. cities was the previous entry in this blog.

The case for (and against) public subsidy for public transport is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.

Categories

Monthly Archives

Pages

Powered by Movable Type 4.31-en