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July 19, 2008

I'm less valuable to USDOT than to EPA

From WaPo Cosmic Markdown: EPA Says Life Is Worth Less

"Last week, it was revealed that an Environmental Protection Agency office had lowered its official estimate of life's value, from about $8.04 million to about $7.22 million. That decision has put a spotlight on the concept of the "Value of a Statistical Life," in which the Washington bureaucracy takes on a question usually left to preachers and poets."

What interest me is that this value is still much higher than in the transportation community. USDOT in an official report recently raised its value to $5.8 million from $3 million previously (set in 2002)

So saving me from dying from pollution is more important than saving me from dying in a car crash. While some deaths are more horrible than others, this doesn't make much sense, especially when you recognize that pollution reduces life at the end, while a car crash takes you out in the middle. I would much rather lose a day or week or month of life when I am already old than 30 or 40 years.

June 18, 2008

Diffusion of Wal-Mart

An interesting paper on the spatial diffusion of Wal-Mart across the United States by Thomas Holmes: The Diffusion of Wal-Mart and Economies of Density

and

A YouTube Movie

June 15, 2008

Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy

I have drafted a Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy.

The memo outlines ten visions, which are summarized here, for fuller discussion, see the full memo:

  1. Within eight years more cars sold in the United States will be powered primarily by electricity and bio-fuels than by fossil fuels. All buses and passenger trains will use electricity or bio-fuels.
  2. Within eight years Americans will be able to ride autonomous smart cars that drive themselves in mixed traffic.
  3. Within a year, an independent federally-funded Bridge Inspection Service will begin to inspect and publicly report on the quality of all bridges on the National Highway System.
  4. After thorough evaluation, within eight years, bridges and pavements on the US Interstate Highway System will be upgraded to handle trucks carrying up to 100,000 pounds, increasing the efficiency of the trucking industry and by reducing the number of vehicle trips, increasing safety for other road users. These improvements will be paid for by the trucking industry, which directly benefits from the improved system. In heavily traveled corridors, a system of truck-only toll lanes will be constructed.
  5. Within eight years American travelers can choose to travel congestion-free by car or bus through America's largest metropolitan areas.
  6. Within four years American travelers will enter airports and transit, and train stations and cross borders, passing both security and immigration controls without delay while ensuring security.
  7. Within eight years a new source of transportation revenue based on time and place of use will be deployed, replacing the federal and state gas tax. This funding will support highway and transit networks.
  8. Returning to the vision of Democratic President Andrew Jackson, items in federal transportation legislation that do not serve a national purpose will be vetoed.
  9. Extending the bipartisan efforts of transportation deregulation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, within four years, highway and transit services and infrastructure will begin to be competitively provided by independent (public, private, or non-profit) organizations under appropriate local or federal oversight. Infrastructure will be provided under a public utility model, ensuring quality of service in exchange for earning a rate of return.
  10. Within one year, the United States federal government will establish separate capital and operating budgets. This will be coupled with a federal program to guarantee loans and bonds for highway and transit infrastructure projects.

  11. Full memo after the jump

    Continue reading "Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy" »

August 16, 2007

Is the 80:20 rule recursive?

The 80:20 rule is a heuristic that people use to suggest that 80% of the benefit comes from 20% of the effort (the values of the parameters may change, but the idea is that a relatively small share of effort gets a majority of the benefit). In one sense this is the idea of diminishing marginal returns, as the last 20% of the benefit requires 80% of the effort. This idea is related to the Pareto principle.

If this is true, the question arises: is the 80:20 rule recursive? Of the first 80% of benefit, does 80% of that only require 20% of the first 20% of effort? In other words, is there a 64:4 rule. Or worse, is there a 51.2: 0.8 rule. If so, then less than 1% of effort gets more than half the benefit.

That sounds like a really good deal to me.

April 05, 2007

Are sunk costs sunk, is salvage value salvageable? A paradox in engineering economics analysis

Salvage value is defined as "The estimated value of an asset at the end of its useful life."
Sunk cost is defined as "Cost already incurred which cannot be recovered regardless of future events."

It is often said in economics that "sunk costs are sunk", meaning they should not be considered a cost in economic analysis, because the money has already been spent.

Now consider two cases

In case 1, we have a road project that costs $10.00 today, and at the end of 10 years has some economic value remaining, let's say a salvage value of $5.00, which when discounted back to the present is $1.93 (at 10% interest). This value is the residual value of the road. Thus, the total present cost of the project $10.00 - $1.93 = $8.07. Clearly the road cannot be moved. However, its presence makes it easier to build future roads ... the land has been acquired and graded, some useful material for aggregate is on-site perhaps, and can be thought of as the amount that it reduces the cost of future generations to build the road. Alternatively, the land could be sold for development if the road is no longer needed, or turned into a park.

Assume the present value of the benefit of the road is $10.00. The benefit/cost ratio is $10.00 over $8.07 or 1.23. If we treat the salvage value as a benefit rather than cost, the benefit is $10.00 + $1.93 = $11.93 and the cost is $10, and the B/C is 1.193.

In 10 years time, the community decides to replace the old worn out road with a new road. This is a new project. The salvage value from the previous project is now the sunk cost of the current project (after all the road is there and could not be moved, and so does not cost the current project anything to exploit). So the cost of the project in 10 years time would be $10.00 - $5.00 = $5.00. Discounting that to the present is $1.93.

The benefit in 10 years time is also $10.00, but the cost in 10 years time was $5.00, and the benefit/cost ratio they perceive is $10.00/$5.00 = 2.00

Aggregating the two projects
the benefits are $10 + $3.86 = $13.86
the costs are $8.07 + $1.93 = $10.00
the collective benefit/cost ratio is 1.386
the NPV is benefits - costs = $3.86

One might argue the salvage value is a benefit, rather than a cost reduction. In that case
the benefits are $10.00 + $1.93 + $3.86 = $15.79
the costs are $10.00 + $1.93 = $11.93
the collective benefit/cost ratio is 1.32
the NPV remains $3.86

====

Case 2 is an identical road, but now the community has a 20 year time horizon to start.
The initial cost is $10, and the cost in 10 years time is $5.00 (discounted to $1.93). The benefits are $10 now and $10 in 10 years time (discounted to $3.86). There is no salvage value at the end of the first period, nor sunk costs at the end of the second period.
What is the benefit cost ratio?
the costs are $11.93
the benefits are still $13.86
the benefit/cost ratio is 1.16
the NPV is $1.93.

If you are the community, which will you invest in?
Case 1 has an initial B/C of 1.23 (or 1.193), Case 2 has a B/C of 1.16. But the real benefits and real costs of the roads are identical.

The salvage value in this example is, like so much in economics (think Pareto optimality), an accounting fiction. In this case no transaction takes place to realize that salvage value. On the other hand, excluding the salvage value over-estimates the net cost of the project, as it ignores potential future uses of the project.

Time horizons on projects must be comparable to correctly assess relative B/C ratio, yet not all projects do have the same benefit/cost ratio.

This "paradox" was first noted to me by Mark Snyder. I don't know how widely it is known or understood, but it does affect analysis.

December 20, 2006

Security is the enemy of efficiency, or attention is a scarce resource

"Security is the enemy of efficiency". I don't know if anyone has said it before, but it has become clear to me that the primary outcome of most security systems is to make my (and others') life less productive. Whether I am safer as a result I have no evidence to produce.

Continue reading "Security is the enemy of efficiency, or attention is a scarce resource" »

August 06, 2006

Markets Attack!

Randall Crane has a nice article on markets vs. planning. I put together a lecture notes on this topic once, which I post below.

Continue reading "Markets Attack!" »

June 17, 2006

An innovation too far?

MnDOT tried to get contractors to finance the reconstruction of the Crosstown Connector in Minneapolis and Richfield, a major bottleneck where the Crosstown Highway (Mn 62) and I-35W share real estate. This was clearly a move towards innovative financing, not just letting contractors build the project, but letting them pay for it, with no certainty about repayment. Clearly, Minnesota's "uninnovative" contractors were having no part of it. See the Strib for details: Crosstown project fails to draw a bid

Generally for financing, there needs to be some guarantee of repayment, with some interest earned, proportionate to risk.

May 27, 2006

A Dream of Fields

Minnesota's Governor Pawlenty signs Twins stadium bill , bringing to an end the incessant pestering/lobbying/threatening by the Minnesota Twins for a new ball field at the public's expense.

Continue reading "A Dream of Fields" »

May 15, 2006

DC Commuter Tax

The Washington Post notes Supreme Court Declines D.C. Commuter Tax Case. I am sure the court is right that the framers gave Congess full authority over the district. It is just too bad DC cannot exploit its monopoly power as national capital to tax those who live outside the district to pay for District services. This notion of "taxing foreigners living abroad" is a politically elegant way of off-loading costs in the toll-road context.

-- dml

May 10, 2006

Gas taxes are again in fashion

From The Becker-Posner Blog: Gasoline Prices--Posner's Comment the higher gas tax is again in fashion.

Continue reading "Gas taxes are again in fashion" »

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