Recently in Network Growth Category

ICAheader

I am on the program committee for the ICA Workshop on Street Networks and Transport:

"Street networks, as one of the oldest infrastructure of transport in the world, play a significant role in modernization, sustainable development, and human daily activities in both ancient and modern times. Although street networks have been well studied in a variety of engineering and scientific disciplines including for instance transport, geography, urban planning, economics and even physics, our understanding of street networks in terms of their structure and dynamics is still very limited to deal with real world problems such as traffic jams, pollution, and human evacuations in case of disaster management. Thanks to the rapid development of geographic information science and related technologies, abundant data of street networks have been collected for better understanding the networks’ behavior, and human activities constrained by the networks. This ICA workshop is intended to gather researchers together to present the state of the art research and studies, in an interdisciplinary setting, on street networks and transport. Suggested topics include, but not limited to as long as they address issues related to street networks and/or transport:
  • Spatial statistics and spatial analysis along networks
  • Topological analysis and space syntax
  • Pattern recognition with street networks
  • Map generalization on street networks Complexity measurement of street networks
  • Human evacuations and simulations
  • Transport modeling based on street networks
  • Geospatial analysis of the OpenStreetMap data

Submission

All manuscripts in a length of 6000-7000 words should be in English, single column, single-spaced with figures and tables within the text. The manuscripts in MS Word 2003 format should contain authors’ affiliation and email, abstract (no longer than 200 words), and up to five keywords. To submit, please use EasyChair at http://www.easychair.org/conferences/?conf=icaworkshop2013
"

SkywayOverTime

Recently Published:

We study the structure and evolution of the downtown Minneapolis, Minnesota skyway network. Developed by private building-owners, the network evolved from tree-like to grid-like over the course of 50 years. We find that decentralized forces with the goal of maximizing individual buildings’ profitability shaped the network. Our analysis shows that a building with greater office size, a sign of greater accessibility, was more likely to be connected earlier. The distribution of existing skyway segments is found to follow a power-law function of the average degree, closeness, and eigenvector centralities of the vertices. We further explain and model the evolutionary process using an agent-based model. The simulation results suggest that the model replicates the network structure and its evolutionary process.

Underground 150

Happy Sesquicentennial to the London Underground. In its honor, I relink to a movie of London's growth from 1801.

More movies and higher resolution here.

The Genius of Dirt Roads

In City Journal, Brandon Fuller writes: The Genius of Dirt Roads :

"Angel writes that governments in the developing world, whose financial capacity is often limited, should focus on what may sound unglamorous: establishing an arterial grid of dirt roads throughout each city’s future territory, much as the commissioners did in Manhattan. The grid should connect to the city’s existing network of roads, of course, and it should cover an area that the city expects its future population growth to require. These arteries will one day carry public transportation and private traffic, and such infrastructure as water mains, sewers, storm drains, and telecommunications networks will follow their routes."

The grid has advantages and drawbacks. In Planning for Place and Plexus we write:

The morphology and queuing properties of the plexus (its supply and demand) ultimately determine both the efficiency of the network in moving people and the efficiency of the land use. Radial (hub-and-spoke) networks allow easy access to the center but create inconvenient sharply angled parcels. In contrast, 90-degree grids maximize travel times (for anyone traveling in a diagonal direction) but create efficient parcels. A major issue with network topology is the interconnectedness of the network. Interconnected networks, be they grid or radial in nature, enable and even encourage through traffic, while a tree-like network discourages that problem. The topology of the network, grid, radial, organic (curvilinear) or otherwise, affects its performance.

The regular grid (with occasional interruptions) is arguably the most common topology for cities. It has been employed in cities for millennia. In the United States, the most influential legislation affecting the morphology of roads was the Land Ordinance of 1785. In many respects, it laid the foundation for future land use-transportation policy by adopting the Public Land Survey System, creating townships and subdividing them into 36 sections of one square mile (259 hectares) and 144 quarter-sections of 0.25 square mile (65 hectares) each. Roads delineating each of the sections were referred to as “section roads.” Subsequently, many urbanizing areas continued to use the centerlines of those roads as the location of present day arterials; the arterial networks are often further broken down into a finer grid of blocks.

A key point that has not been generally considered is the flexibility that the uniform and undifferentiated mesh networks (termed “grids” here) provide to changes in land use. A uniform grid allows alternative spacing between activities, spacing that can change with economies of scale. For instance, consider retailing. As described in Chapter 9, many stores—especially grocery stores—have been getting larger, while their numbers have dropped. Many New Urbanists, who advocate small-scale neighborhood retail, bemoan this phenomenon. Suppose that economies of scale indicate that it is efficient for the average retail store of a certain kind to increase in size from 1,000 to 2,000 ft2 (93 to 186 m2). Previously there may have been one such store every 10 blocks (one for every 100 square blocks); now there can be one every 14 blocks (one for every 200 square blocks). A grid allows the flexibility for re- spacing while keeping nearly optimal size stores. ...

A tree network, in contrast, fails to provide such flexibility; a store can locate either at the neighborhood center, at the community center, or at the regional center; it can serve perhaps 5,000 people, 15,000 people, or 60,000 people. A store optimally sized to serve 10,000 people cannot be located at a consistent node level—or, if it is, it cannot be efficient. A firm may need to locate stores in some neighborhood centers and not others, causing people to go into other neighborhoods in some places.
Recognizing that grid-based road networks might not lend themselves to locations that were not situated on flat, featureless plains, designers introduced several variations. To conform to the contours of the land, Frederick Law Olmstead employed curving streets in many of his designs (e.g. Roland Park, Maryland). Permutations continued to evolve over the years, and the “loop” and “lollipop” designs became the standard in suburban settings

I think the idea of a particular network topology (grid vs. tree) depends a lot on the topography. Getting this right is important. The idea of laying something out in advance (Angel's main point), so that property rights and development can occur on that lattice, seems a very good one.

Newspaper Advertising

NewspapersRevenue

The Transportationist just loves him some S-curves. This via Business Insider: CHART OF THE DAY: Newspaper Advertising It is self-explanatory (and speaks to dematerialization and substitution of the electronic for the physical).

Susan Fecht @ SciAm: Track Record: Do Major Urban Subway Networks Evolve along Similar Patterns?:

"No two subway systems have the same design. New York City’s haphazard rail system differs markedly from the highly organized Moscow Metro (above), or the tangled spaghetti of Tokyo’s subway network. Each system’s design is the result of many factors, including local geography, the city’s layout and traffic distribution, politics, culture and degree of urban planning."

Nice summary of recent research by Roth, Kang, Batty, and Barthelemy "A long-time limit for world subway networks" in Journal of the Royal Society: Interface (which might be behind a firewall if you don't have library access)

I am interviewed in the SciAm article.

Tim de Chant on Strano et al.Seeing historical processes in road networks' patterns:

"By themselves, these discoveries are clever and insightful. But the interesting stuff will happen when urban planning completes the transition from an observation-based science to a mathematical one, much as ecology did in the recent past. Then we’ll have a real sense of how these models will change our understanding of cities.


Strano, E., Nicosia, V., Latora, V., Porta, S., & Barthélemy, M. (2012). Elementary processes governing the evolution of road networks Scientific Reports, 2 DOI: 10.1038/srep00296"


A Short History of Intersection

Urbangram has A Short History of Intersection

"The Egyptian symbol for 'city', Richard Sennett points out in Conscience of the Eye (p. 46), consisted of a cross bounded by a circle, providing one of the earliest signs of the urban; intersection and enclosure -- grid and boundary -- come together in this hieroglyph. The notion of the urban as an intersection offers an insight into one of the longest-running themes in urbanism - centrality. Whilst Egyptians made a point of right-angled street intersections, the Roman grid plan (Hippodamus) was designed to explicitly generate centers at different scales, with the earliest phase of settlement locating itself at the intersection of two prominent axial streets, the cardo and the decumanus. To this day cores, hubs, and centers form ever-present concepts in urban discourse; all relate or allude to a set of slippery spatial phenomena we call 'centrality'." ...

Read the rest

I will be in New York on Friday April 30 giving a talk on Transport, Land Use, and Value hosted by the local University Transportation Center at City University of New York.

Given transportation creates land value, and recognizing the problem of underfunding transport infrastructure, new funding sources can be used to increase transport investment, create additional land value, and improve social welfare. This presentation considers co-evolutionary process between the development of land and transport networks. Using data from the rail and Underground in London and the streetcar system in the Twin Cities, the empirical relationship is established statistically under several different contexts, and hypotheses about the positive feedback nature of the interaction are tested.

Time & Location
Baruch College Conference Center
151 E. 25th Street, 7th Floor, New York, NY

9:30 am - Breakfast & registration
10:00 am - Seminar

From New Scientist: Designing highways the slime mould way

... Jeff Jones and Andrew Adamatzky, specialists in unconventional computing at the University of the West of England in Bristol, wondered if biology could provide an alternative to conventional road planning methods. To find out, they created templates of the UK using a sheet of agar on which they marked out the nine most populous cities, excluding London, with oat flakes. Then, in the place of London, the pair introduced a colony of P. polycephalum, which feeds by spawning tendrils to reach nutrients, and recorded the colony's feeding activity (see picture).

Most of the resulting "maps" mimicked the real inter-city road network, but some offered new routes. For instance, the motorway between Manchester and Glasgow passes along the west coast of the UK, but the slime mould preferred to travel east to Newcastle and then north to Glasgow ( /arxiv.org/abs/0912.3967 ). "This shows how a single-celled creature without any nervous system - and thus intelligence in the classical sense - can provide an efficient solution to a routing problem," says Jones.

The Block

Recently published:

Zhang, Lei, David Levinson, and Shanjiang Zhu (2008) Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks. . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy Sept. 2008 42(3) pp. 435-461. [download]

Using consistent agent-based techniques, this research explores the welfare consequences of product differentiation on congested networks. The economic analysis focuses on the source, evolution, measurement, and impact of product differentiation with heterogeneous users on a mixed ownership network. Path differentiation and space differentiation are defined and measured for a base scenario and several variants. The findings favour a fixed-rate road pricing policy compared to complete pricing freedom on toll roads. It is also shown that the impact of production differentiation on welfare is not always positive and depends on the level of user heterogeneity.

Recently published:

Zhang, Lei, and David M. Levinson (2008) Investing for Reliability and Security in Transportation Networks. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board #2041 pp.1-10 [doi]

Alternative transportation investment policies can lead to very different network forms in the future. The desirability of a transportation network should be assessed not only by its economic efficiency but also reliability, because the cost of incidental capacity loss in a road network can be massive. This research concerns how investment rules shape the hierarchical structure of roads, and affects network fragility with regard to natural disasters, congestion, and accidents and vulnerability to targeted attacks. A microscopic network growth model predicts the equilibrium road networks under two alternative policy scenarios: investment based on benefit cost analysis or bottleneck removal. A set of Monte-Carlo simulation runs, in which a certain percentage of links are removed according to the type of network degradation analyzed, are carried out to evaluate the equilibrium road networks. It is found that hierarchy exists in road networks for reasons such as economic efficiency, but an overly hierarchical structure has serious reliability problems. Throughout the equilibrating or evolution process, the studied grid network under benefit cost analysis has better efficiency performance, as well as error and attack tolerance. The policy implication from these findings is that benefit-cost analysis should be preferred to myopic bottleneck-removal type of investment rules, no matter how the planning horizon is specified.

Keywords: Transportation network dynamics, road growth model, reliability, vulnerability, fragility, road investment and financing policy

Recently published:

Xie, Feng and David Levinson (2008) The Weakest Link: A model of the decline of surface transportation networks. Transportation Research part E 44(1) 100-113. [doi]

This study explores the economic mechanisms behind the decline of a surface transportation network, based on the assumption that the decline phase is a spontaneous process driven by decentralized decisions of individual travelers and privatized links. A simulation model is developed with a degeneration process by which the weakest link is removed iteratively from the network. Experiments reveal how the economic efficiency of a network evolves during the degeneration process and suggest an "optimal" degenerated network could be derived during the decline phase in terms of maximizing total social welfare.

Keywords: Decline; Transportation network; Simulation; Welfare; Accessibility


New UK high-speed rail plan unveiled

From the BBC New UK high-speed rail plan unveiled

The line would serve Birmingham and Manchester, getting passengers from Glasgow to London in just two hours and 16 minutes, the rail firm said. It rejected several alternative routes, including the east of England.

Judging from the map (linked below), the architecture of the line is clearly to feed London, all of the ancillary cities are as if on a tree with the xylem and phloem oriented to London, it would not be terribly good for say Manchester to Edinburgh or Manchester to Birmingham.

"The firm said that the line would account for 43.7 million journeys per year by 2030, which would result in 3.8 million fewer vehicle journeys and fewer carbon dioxide emissions.".
In other words, more 90% of the trips are switching from rail or air to HSR. Providing better rail service to existing rail passengers is a good thing, but CO2 is hardly a rationale (as more CO2 has to be used going faster than going slower if the electricity is from the same place ... diesel to electric conversion is a separate matter).

Finally, the cost is esimated at $55B for 1500 miles of rail (presumably including triple or quadruple tracking in some sections. Planning will take 5 more years. It is hoped by the promoters the first section (London to Birmingham) will open in 2020. Speeds will max at 200 mph.


rail plan

Birmingham: 45mins, down from 1h 22mins

Liverpool: 1hr 23mins, down from 2hrs 8mins

Manchester: 1hr 6mins, down from 2hrs 7mins

Edinburgh: 2hrs 9mins, down from 4hrs 23mins

Glasgow: 2hrs 16mins, down from 4hrs 10 mins


Also see: London to Glasgow in five minutes, a video showing the West Coast Main Line (which this proposal seems to duplicate) and was recently modernized for 9 billion pounds.

Recently published:

Xie, Feng and David Levinson (2009) Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth. Networks and Spatial Economics 9(3) 459-483. [doi]

Transport infrastructure evolves over time in a complex process as part of a dynamic and open system including travel demand, land use, as well as economic and political initiatives. As transport infrastructure changes, each traveler may adopt a new schedule, frequency, destination, mode, and/or route, and in the long term may change the location of their activities. These new behaviors create demand for a new round of modifications of infrastructure. In the long run, we observe the collective change in the capacity, service, connectivity, and connection patterns (topology) of networks. This paper examines how a fixed set of places incrementally gets connected as transport networks are constructed and upgraded over time. A simulator of network incremental connection (SONIC) is constructed to model the process of incremental connections and examines how networks evolve differently under centralized versus decentralized jurisdictional initiatives. Exploring the mechanism underlying this dynamic process can answer questions such as how urban networks have developed into various topologies, which network patterns are more efficient, and whether and how transport engineers, planners, and decision makers can guide the dynamics of land uses and infrastructure in a desired direction.

Keywords Network growth - Transport economics - Incremental connection - Jurisdictional control

The following was recently published:

Xie, Feng and David Levinson (2009) Modeling the Growth of Transportation Networks: A comprehensive review. Networks and Spatial Economics. 9(3) 291-307. [doi]

This paper reviews the progress that has been made over the last half-century in modeling and analyzing the growth of transportation networks. An overview of studies has been provided following five main streams: network growth in transport geography; traffic flow, transportation planning, and network growth; statistical analyses of network growth; economics of network growth; and network science. In recognition of the vast advances through decades in terms of exploring underlying growth mechanisms and developing effective network growth models, the authors also point out the challenges that are faced to model the complex process of transport development.

The following was recently published:

Xie, Feng and David Levinson (2009) The Topological Evolution of Road Networks.
Topological evolution of surface transportation networks
Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems 33(3) 211-223 [doi]

This study explores the topological evolution of surface transportation networks, using empirical evidence and a simulation model validated on that data. Evolution is an iterative process of interaction, investment, and disinvestment. The temporal change of topological attributes for the network is also evaluated using measures of connectivity, density, heterogeneity, concentration, and connection patterns. The simulation model is validated using historical data from the Indiana interurban network. Statistical analyses suggest that the simulation model performs well in predicting the sequence of link abandonment in the interurban network as well as the temporal change of topological attributes. The simulation model is then applied on different idealized network structures. Typical connection patterns such as rings, webs, hub-and-spokes, and cul-de-sacs emerge in the networks; the spontaneous organization of network hierarchies, the temporal change of spacing between parallel links, and the rise-and-fall of places in terms of their relative importance are also observed, providing evidence for the claim that network topology is an emergent property of network dynamics.

PACS numbers: 89.75.Fb, 89.75.-k, 89.75Kd

A special issue of Networks and Spatial Economics on the Evolution of Transportation Network Infrastructure, for which I was the editor, is now out. Many thanks to my co-authors and the journal for making this happen. (I cannot however see the final version, as it is behind a pay-wall and my university does not yet subscribe to the journal. I have read all of the articles though, and it is well worth reading if you do have access).

Introduction to the Special Issue on the Evolution of Transportation Network Infrastructure
David Levinson
289-290

Modeling the Growth of Transportation Networks: A Comprehensive Review
Feng Xie and David Levinson
291-307

Inter-Modal Network Externalities and Transport Development: Evidence from Roads, Canals, and Ports During the English Industrial Revolution
Dan Bogart
309-338

The Efficiency of the Victorian British Railway Network: A Counterfactual Analysis
Mark Casson
339-378

Graph-Theoretical Analysis of the Swiss Road and Railway Networks Over Time
Alexander Erath, Michael Löchl and Kay W. Axhausen
379-400

Co-evolution of Density and Topology in a Simple Model of City Formation
Marc Barthélemy and Alessandro Flammini
401-425

The Topology of Transportation Networks: A Comparison Between Different Economies
Efrat Blumenfeld-Lieberthal
427-458

Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth
Feng Xie and David Levinson
459-483

Via WC: A series of historical photos and maps of Chicago and other
Streetcars

Via DK: A neat animation of NYC subway ridership from 1905-2006:
NYC Subway Ridership, 1905-2006

Diffusion of Wal-Mart

An interesting paper on the spatial diffusion of Wal-Mart across the United States by Thomas Holmes: The Diffusion of Wal-Mart and Economies of Density

and

A YouTube Movie

Russia Plans World's Longest Tunnel, a Link to Alaska

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Russia plans to build the world's
longest tunnel, a transport and pipeline link under the Bering Strait to Alaska, as part of a $65 billion project to supply the U.S. with oil, natural gas and electricity from Siberia. ... more.

This reminds one of Buckminster Fuller, who long ago advocated linking the world's electrical grids to balance loads (assuming low losses on transmission). Looking at his Dymaxion Map gives a new perspective on how close Alaska and Siberia are.

The Urban Economics blog has an interesting post by Efrat Blumenfeld-Lieberthal, who I met while visiting Michael Batty's CASA shop at UCL: Topology of urban transportation networks. It was nice to see correlations between economic development and network structure for intercity networks.

updated August 25, 2009:

For those of you who doubt I am doing work over in London, I have completed two other papers (in addition to "Too Expensive to Meter" based on my research over here):

  • Levinson, David (2008) The Orderliness Hypothesis: Does Population Density Explain the Sequence of Rail Station Opening in London? Journal of Transport History 29(1) March 2008 pp.98-114.[download]
  • Network growth is a complex phenomenon. Some have suggested that it occurs in an orderly or rational way, based on the size of the places that are connected. David Levinson examines the order in which stations were added to the London surface rail and Underground rail networks in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, testing the extent to which order correlates with population density. While population density is an important factor in explaining order, he shows that other factors were at work. The network itself helps to reshape land uses, and a network that may have been well ordered at one time may drift away from order as activities relocate.


  • Levinson, David (2008) Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London. Journal of Economic Geography 8(1) 55-57.
    JEG: [doi]
  • This article examines the changes that occurred in the rail network and density of population in London during the 19th and 20th centuries. It aims to disentangle the 'chicken and egg' problem of which came first, network or land development, through a set of statistical analyses clearly distinguishing events by order. Using panel data representing the 33 boroughs of London over each decade from 1871 to 2001, the research finds that there is a positive feedback effect between population density and network density. Additional rail stations (either Underground or surface) are positive factors leading to subsequent increases in population in the suburbs of London, while additional population density is a factor in subsequently deploying more rail. These effects differ in central London, where the additional accessibility produced by rail led to commercial development and concomitant depopulation. There are also differences in the effects associated with surface rail stations and Underground stations, as the Underground was able to get into central London in a way that surface rail could not. However, the two networks were weak (and statistically insignificant) substitutes for each other in the suburbs, while the density of surface rail stations was a complement to the Underground in the center, though not vice versa.


Perhaps more interesting for the non-academic, we (Ahmed El-Geneidy, Feng Xie, and myself of the Nexus group) have put together three quicktime movies


  • 1.The co-evolution of London population density and surface (National) rail

  • 2.The co-evolution of London population density and the Underground

  • 3.The co-evolution of London population density and surface (National) rail and the Underground


These can be accessed from here.

Clash of Speeds

In the Tofflers' new book "Revolutionary Wealth", the discuss the "Clash of Speeds", saying in an interview

"If you were a cop at the side of the road monitoring the speed of the cars going by, you would clock the car of business,which is always changing rapidly under competitive pressures,at 100miles per hour.But the car of education,which is supposedly preparing our young for the future,is only going 10mph.You cannot have a successful economy with that degree of de-synchronization. "

If education is going 10mph, one might posit surface transportation itself is going 1 mph. The networks we use are perhaps the slowest of institutions to change, the roads we use today are still where we put them a decade, a century, or a millenium (or two) ago. This slow pace of change is a two-way street. If you want to make rapid change, you will be frustrated, but if you want to make lasting change, you will be rewarded.

Understanding highway network growth

There is a nice summary of our recent empirical work on modeling network growth, the project "If They Come, Will You Build It," written up here:


Article


The final report is here:


Final Report

David Levinson

Network Reliability in Practice

Evolving Transportation Networks

Place and Plexus

The Transportation Experience

Access to Destinations

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Financing Transportation Networks

View David Levinson's profile on LinkedIn

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