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August 26, 2009

Open House for Franklin Ave/East River Road Intersection | Bridgeland News

I attended the Open House for Franklin Ave/East River Road Intersection, where the County and consultants revealed their plans. These are described in the (what I thought was defunct) Bridgeland News article.

My views are here.

In short, instead of a Monderman-esque Shared Space, or even a roundabout, they are tweaking the signal timings and reconfiguring the approach lanes. The main change there is on the Franklin Avenue bridge, which will reduce to 1 lane in each direction on the west side, and flare to two lanes at the approach. This will no doubt improve things (in terms of vehicle delay from most approaches and pedestrian delay) over the baseline, and at least it is relatively cheap, but this, as they officials admit, is a short-term fix, and the intersection will need to be revisited post-Central Corridor.

August 24, 2009

Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth

Recently published:

Xie, Feng and David Levinson (2009) Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth. Networks and Spatial Economics 9(3) 459-483. [doi]

Transport infrastructure evolves over time in a complex process as part of a dynamic and open system including travel demand, land use, as well as economic and political initiatives. As transport infrastructure changes, each traveler may adopt a new schedule, frequency, destination, mode, and/or route, and in the long term may change the location of their activities. These new behaviors create demand for a new round of modifications of infrastructure. In the long run, we observe the collective change in the capacity, service, connectivity, and connection patterns (topology) of networks. This paper examines how a fixed set of places incrementally gets connected as transport networks are constructed and upgraded over time. A simulator of network incremental connection (SONIC) is constructed to model the process of incremental connections and examines how networks evolve differently under centralized versus decentralized jurisdictional initiatives. Exploring the mechanism underlying this dynamic process can answer questions such as how urban networks have developed into various topologies, which network patterns are more efficient, and whether and how transport engineers, planners, and decision makers can guide the dynamics of land uses and infrastructure in a desired direction.

Keywords Network growth - Transport economics - Incremental connection - Jurisdictional control

July 21, 2009

Driven to Distraction - In 2003, U.S. Withheld Data Showing Cellphone Driving Risks - Series - NYTimes.com

NY Times: In 2003, U.S. Withheld Data Showing Cellphone Driving Risks

In 2003, researchers at a federal agency proposed a long-term study of 10,000 drivers to assess the safety risk posed by cellphone use behind the wheel. They sought the study based on evidence that such multitasking was a serious and growing threat on America's roadways.

This makes no sense, withholding data that supported an already well-known (and one might add, fairly obvious) finding. This is evidenced by the literature reviewed in the first few pages of the Official Documents

...
The former head of the highway safety agency said he was urged to withhold the research to avoid antagonizing members of Congress who had warned the agency to stick to its mission of gathering safety data but not to lobby states.

Urged by whom? Since when did publishing a report constitute lobbying?

All the more reason the Executive Branch should not conduct science, which should be left to independent organizations (like universities).

July 1, 2009

Value Capture for Transportation Finance

Our Value Capture for Transportation Finance study is now out.

Detailed reports will be placed online soon.

About the Study

Large public investments in state transportation infrastructure--such as new freeway interchanges, highways, or transit stations--can increase the value of adjacent private land, sometimes substantially. Capturing the value of this benefit through various tools is gaining interest as a finance mechanism for infrastructure investments. But many questions remain: Does "value capture" promote or hinder economic development? How high should the tax rate be? How stable is the revenue?

To answer these and other questions, the state legislature appropriated funding to CTS to study the public policy implications of value capture.

Researchers reviewed the relationship between transportation and land values, including the measurement of benefits from a transportation improvement, as well as the legal and economic frameworks for capturing the value gains. They explored the major financing techniques associated with value capture--such as joint development of infrastructure and adjacent private parcels, rezoning and reselling, impact fees, special assessment districts, and tax increment financing--and some examples of their implementation. They then evaluated several of the proposed policies and their suitability for implementation locally, based on the criteria of economic efficiency, social equity, adequacy as a revenue source, and feasibility.

June 19, 2009

Transportation and Infrastructure Committee

Details on the Oberstar et al. Transportation Bill

June 7, 2009

Lord Adonis becomes Transport Secretary

From the Telegraph, the embattled Gordon Brown decides Lord Adonis becomes Transport Secretary

I don't know anything about him, but I love the name.

From Wikipedia Adonis comes from the Hebrew Adon meaning lord, so his name is really Lord Lord. (His real name is Andreas (or Andrew) Adonis.)

February 8, 2009

LaHood: No 'boondoggles' in stimulus: The Swamp

From The Swamp and CNN LaHood: No 'boondoggles' in stimulus

December 6, 2008

Obama infrastructure plan

From today's radio address: President-elect Barack Obama lays out key parts of Economic Recovery Plan

" ... Second, we will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s. We’ll invest your precious tax dollars in new and smarter ways, and we’ll set a simple rule – use it or lose it. If a state doesn’t act quickly to invest in roads and bridges in their communities, they’ll lose the money."

Oddly this comes after making federal buildings energy efficient, I would think this is a bigger deal, but still it should be a large inflow for maintenance and rehabilitation projects, and hopefully won't be wasted.

December 3, 2008

NJO Transportation Blog

National Journal Online has a new blog:
Transportation Experts
.

Posters include current and former Secretaries of Transportation.

November 6, 2008

Transport World Eyes Obama DOT

From TrafficWorld: Transport World Eyes Obama DOT ... the list of mentioned possible USDOT people.

October 30, 2008

Obama won't let those robots eat me

Found in South Minneapolis

...

Her name is Yoshimi
she's a black belt in karate
working for the city
she has to discipline her body

'Cause she knows that
it's demanding
to defeat those evil machines
I know she can beat them

Oh Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots eat me
Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots defeat me

Those evil-natured robots
they're programmed to destroy us
she's gotta be strong to fight them
so she's taking lots of vitamins

'Cause she knows that
it'd be tragic
if those evil robots win
I know she can beat them

Oh Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots defeat me
Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots eat me

Yoshimi

'Cause she knows that
it'd be tragic
if those evil robots win
I know she can beat them

Oh Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots defeat me
Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots defeat me

Oh Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots eat me
Yoshimi, they don't believe me
but you won't let those robots eat me

Yoshimi

by The Flaming Lips

August 30, 2008

Candidate Issue Comparison

A comparison of Obama and McCain's positions on transportation from Bookings: Candidate Issue Index: Transportation

August 27, 2008

Derailing the Boondoggle

An article appears in the magazine Miller-McCune by Ryan Blitstein Derailing the Boondoggle, which discusses Bent Flybjerg, reference-class forecasting, and the trouble with mega-projects.

Clearly engineering based estimates of project costs built up cubic yard by cubic yard ought to be compared with economic-based estimates of the costs of the same project using comparable cases. Similarly for demand forecasts. Ideally the two methods (economic and engineering) would be the same, or close. Practice indicates otherwise.

One wonders whether estimates showing benefits < costs would actually derail many of these projects. Hiawatha LRT in Minnesota had a published B/C ratio of 0.42 and went forward and is now heralded (politically) as a success. Whether the B/C would actually exceed 1.0 is a class project for my transportation economics class this Fall.

Nevertheless, not all forecasts are high. In the Twin Cities, our study "Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy" show they tended to underestimate traffic.

August 4, 2008

GOP hopes to skirt Minn. bridge issue

According to Politico: GOP hopes to skirt Minn. bridge issue

With an expected opening in Mid-September to Mid-October, it will be interesting to see if the media does avoid re-examining the bridge collapse.

July 18, 2008

Transportation Professor runs for Mayor

Apparently University of Hawaii Transportation Professor Panos Prevedouros (co-author of a well known undergraduate engineering textbook) is running for mayor of Honolulu: Panos for Mayor

He is an opponent of the ~$4 Billion Honolulu rail project, to the extent there is a blog entitled Fire Dr. Panos Prevedouros: UH Please fire him NOW!, clearly a very focused theme.

If he succeeds, he will join President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as transportation Ph.Ds in politics.

June 26, 2008

Obama's Metropolitan Policy Speech

Ezra Klein's comments and the full text of Obama's Metropolitan Policy speech (June 21) can be found here

June 23, 2008

Clean Car Challenge

From Washington Post Sen. McCain offers $300 million prize for new auto battery

McCain's energy policy is described in a speech today.

Key points:

"The Republican presidential nominee-in-waiting is proposing a $300 million government prize to whomever can develop an automobile battery that far surpasses existing technology."

"The Arizona senator is also proposing stiffer fines for automakers who skirt existing fuel-efficiency standards, as well as incentives to increase use of domestic and foreign alcohol-based fuels such as ethanol."

"In addition, a so-called Clean Car Challenge would provide U.S. automakers with a $5,000 tax credit for every zero-carbon emissions car they develop and sell."

June 15, 2008

Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy

I have drafted a Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy.

The memo outlines ten visions, which are summarized here, for fuller discussion, see the full memo:

  1. Within eight years more cars sold in the United States will be powered primarily by electricity and bio-fuels than by fossil fuels. All buses and passenger trains will use electricity or bio-fuels.
  2. Within eight years Americans will be able to ride autonomous smart cars that drive themselves in mixed traffic.
  3. Within a year, an independent federally-funded Bridge Inspection Service will begin to inspect and publicly report on the quality of all bridges on the National Highway System.
  4. After thorough evaluation, within eight years, bridges and pavements on the US Interstate Highway System will be upgraded to handle trucks carrying up to 100,000 pounds, increasing the efficiency of the trucking industry and by reducing the number of vehicle trips, increasing safety for other road users. These improvements will be paid for by the trucking industry, which directly benefits from the improved system. In heavily traveled corridors, a system of truck-only toll lanes will be constructed.
  5. Within eight years American travelers can choose to travel congestion-free by car or bus through America's largest metropolitan areas.
  6. Within four years American travelers will enter airports and transit, and train stations and cross borders, passing both security and immigration controls without delay while ensuring security.
  7. Within eight years a new source of transportation revenue based on time and place of use will be deployed, replacing the federal and state gas tax. This funding will support highway and transit networks.
  8. Returning to the vision of Democratic President Andrew Jackson, items in federal transportation legislation that do not serve a national purpose will be vetoed.
  9. Extending the bipartisan efforts of transportation deregulation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, within four years, highway and transit services and infrastructure will begin to be competitively provided by independent (public, private, or non-profit) organizations under appropriate local or federal oversight. Infrastructure will be provided under a public utility model, ensuring quality of service in exchange for earning a rate of return.
  10. Within one year, the United States federal government will establish separate capital and operating budgets. This will be coupled with a federal program to guarantee loans and bonds for highway and transit infrastructure projects.

  11. Full memo after the jump

    Continue reading "Memo to the Next President of the United States on Transportation Policy" »

May 8, 2008

Voters seem to reject gas tax holiday pander

As even Paul Krugman notes: Talleyrand and the gas tax holiday

"I’m on record as saying that Hillary Clinton’s advocacy of a gas-tax holiday, while it wasn’t good policy, didn’t rise to the level of a crime.

Judging from last night’s results, however, it was worse than a crime: it was a mistake."

If it wasn't a crime, perhaps Clinton should suggest a "social security tax holiday", to give taxpayers a break.


April 17, 2008

The War of Don Young's Ear(mark)

From TPM, an article on Don Young's Earmark for the I-75 - Coconut Road interchange in Lee County, Florida. Don Young (Republican) is from Alaska, about as far from Florida as you can get and still be in the United States.

April 16, 2008

Why are roads favoured by the right and trains by socialists?

From Christian Wolmar's blog: Why are roads favoured by the right and trains by socialists?

An interesting question, I posted a reply, repeated below.

"From the US, I think part of the problem is the definition of "subsidy". Here, auto users pay a user fee, most of which is in the form of a gas (petrol) tax, that is dedicated (hypothecated) to road construction, and pays in most places essentially 100% of the cost for major roads (freeways, state highways). (Local roads are largely paid for with property tax, but you would have these even without cars). So rather than thinking about it as a public subsidy, it is a service in exchange for a fee.

In contrast public transit users pay about 1/3 of the operating cost (and about 0/3 of the capital cost) in most systems, the remainder is paid for out of general funds, dedicated sales taxes, and from highway user fees. The system is thus more subsidized by non-users.

Also in the US 90+% of taxpayers are regular auto users, about 1% to 2% are regular transit users, so the cross-subsidy from transit users to highway users when using general revenue is relatively small and the cross-subsidy from highway users to transit users is relatively large.

All of which sets the stage for the left/right divide. Things that are subsidized by the general public for the disadvantaged few (and riders of buses generally have much lower incomes than average, trains are different) are consistent with a "left"/Democratic point-of-view. People left to their own devices paying for what they use is a more "right"/Republican point-of-view.

Trains, especially commuter trains, have attracted Republican support. This is because the users are well-to-do suburbanites who often vote Republican. Transit advocates endorse this as a way to broaden the base for transit support (though of course it will take resources away from other transit investments).
-- David Levinson, http://blog.lib.umn.edu/levin031/transportationist/
"

April 7, 2008

Oberstar on campus

From the campus Minnesota Daily: Oberstar talks transportation on campus

April 6, 2008

Transport Manifestos

The London Mayor's race is "hotting up" (not heating up, as in American English). Each of the candidates, current mayor Ken Livingston (labour) and Boris Johnson (conservative) have issued "transport manifestos".

While Ken Livingstone may now be somewhat well-known to Americans interested in congestion pricing, Boris Johnson is himself a celebrity of sorts in the UK, a British version of a young William F. Buckley perhaps? He manages to attract publicity for whatever he does.

An article on Ken Livingstone's campaign and manifesto are linked to from here:
London: Mayor & More: Livingstone's Transport Policy Launch

Boris Johnson's Manifesto can be found here:
Transport : Back Boris for Mayor of London

One of the major issues is "Bendy Buses" (Articulated Buses), which have in recent years been introduced to London's streets, and are not terribly popular, especially with cyclists.

Johnson has also called for reconsideration of the western extension of the congestion charging region implement in 2007.

March 27, 2008

Obama endorses congestion pricing

From Streetsblog: Obama Endorses Pricing as “Thoughtful and Innovative� after meeting with Mayor Bloomberg. (Obama/Bloomberg 08?)

With both major parties support, maybe pricing will become mainstream rather than fringe. (Still leaving private roads to the Libertarians).

March 25, 2008

The Really Revolutionary Engine (Thomas from a revolutionary perspective)

From BUYO The Really Revolutionary Engine

Funny, especially for the Thomasistas in the crowd.

March 21, 2008

The Man Who Loved Roads

Harry S. Truman was one of the leaders of the "Good Roads" movement. He inherited this interest from his father John, who was road overseer in Washington Township Missouri in 1913. Harry Truman later became county judge in Jackson County, and was in charge of appointing road overseers. After losing re-election in 1924, he sold memberships in the Kansas City Automobile Club and then became President of the National Old Trails Road Association. After being re-elected in 1926, he helped get Jackson County out of the mud, with one of the largest local road-building programs in the US ensuring an all-weather (i.e. paved) road served every farm.

Ultimately as President, he could have been father to the Interstate System, which was planned, but not funded during his administration, had the Korean War not intervened and made funding scarce.

References:

The Man Who Loved Roads , May/June 2002 Public Roads

Harry S. Truman on Good Roads

March 10, 2008

The Terrorist Engineering Connection

EETimes.com - 'Jihad' study roils engineering

It has been noted here (and here before that Osama Bin Laden and Yassir Arafat and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were all Civil Engineers, but according to sociologists, that is not mere coincidence, it is a sociologically predictable phenomenon.

I have long said Transportation Engineering is the last bastion of socialism in the US (almost all the roads are state-owned, and queues are quite common due to undersupply and lack of a price signal, attributes of a socialist economy), but who knew we civil engineers were also the source of Islamo-Fascism. Of course, to a post-modernist those are both the same, as being parts of "totalizing narratives" as my Marxist Geography professor would have noted (not that he was a post-modernist).

Perhaps the critical question is why do would-be terrorists want to have engineering as their back-up job? Is there something about the terrorist mindset that causes engineering to be an appealing second choice should bombing innocent civilians not work out or not pay as well as hoped? Perhaps the skills obtained in trying to make bombs (wiring, systems thinking, etc.) and destroy are easily transferred to making durable structures.

Or maybe we should ask what it is about non-terrorists that make them less likely to be engineers? Clearly engineers are in general useful to society, what personality trait are non-terrorist wannabes missing that discourages them from undertaking an education in engineering.

The original article would appear to be reasonably well-researched given the dearth of data about the nebulous underworld. Yet of course correlation is not causality.

February 25, 2008

Obama's Transportation Plan posted

Obama's Transportation Plan is now posted here (pdf).

I quote it in its entirety:

" BARACK OBAMA: STRENGTHENING AMERICA’S TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE


TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Strengthen Core Infrastructure: As our society becomes more mobile and interconnected, the need for 21st-century transportation networks has never been greater. However, too many of our nation’s railways, highways, bridges, airports, and neighborhood streets are slowly decaying due to lack of investment and strategic long-term planning. Barack Obama believes that America’s long-term competitiveness depends on the stability of our critical infrastructure. As president, Obama will make strengthening our transportation systems, including our roads and bridges, a top priority.

Support Amtrak Funding: Barack Obama has been a strong supporter of federal financial support for Amtrak. Obama believes we need to reform Amtrak to improve accountability. In many parts of the country, Amtrak is the only form of reliable transportation. In the U.S. Senate, Obama is a cosponsor of the Passenger Rail Investment and Innovation Act of 2007, a leading act to provide long-term federal investment to Amtrak. As president, Barack Obama will continue to fight for Amtrak funding and reform so that individuals, families and businesses throughout the country have safe and reliable transportation options.

Support Development of High-Speed Freight and Passenger Rail: Barack Obama supports development of high-speed rail networks across the country. Providing passengers with safe high-speed rail will have significant environmental and metropolitan planning advantages and help diversify our nation’s transportation infrastructure. Our domestic rail freight capacity must also be strengthened because our demand for rail transportation has never been greater, leaving many key transportation hubs stretched to capacity. Obama is committed to renewing the federal government’s commitment to high speed rail so that our nation’s transportation infrastructure continues to support, and not hinder, our nation’s long-term economic growth.

Strengthen Metropolitan Planning to Cut Down Traffic Congestion: Barack Obama believes we must take steps at the front-end as well as the back-end of the planning process to cut down traffic congestion in our large and medium-size cities. Obama supported a measure authored by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) to mandate states and Metropolitan Planning Organizations create policies that incentivize greater bicycle and pedestrian usage of sidewalks and roads. As president, Obama will work to provide states and local governments with the resources they need to address sprawl and create more livable communities.

Strengthen Air Transportation in Underserved Areas: Obama has worked across party lines to protect funding for the Essential Air Service program, which provides vital funds for air transportation in rural areas. Obama supports the continuation of the Small Community Air Service Development Program that helps small and mid-sized communities attract new air service, which is critical to local economic development. Obama will work to improve the effectiveness of these programs and increase the availability of rail transportation options for residents of rural communities.

Modernize Infrastructure on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Obama strongly supported the Water Resources and Development Act, which will provide funding for modernizing the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers’ system of locks and dams. The bill will also provide funding for environmental restoration along the upper Mississippi. The decay of existing locks and dams has led to stagnating economic development for areas along the river, including Iowa, because of the decreasing ability of farmers and other producers to ship their goods both domestically and internationally. Obama’s work to pass the Water Resources and Development Act has been praised by the National Corn Grower’s Association and the American Soybean Association. As president, Obama will continue to ensure that the federal government invests in upgrading our national transportation infrastructure for agricultural and commercial goods.

Improve Transportation Access to Jobs: Three-quarters of welfare recipients live in areas that are poorly served by public transportation and low-income workers spend up to 36 percent of their incomes on transportation. Barack Obama has spent years working to improve transportation access for low-income Americans. As an Illinois state senator, he was the chief sponsor of the bill that created the Interagency Coordinating Committee on Transportation, a body that was charged with building public-private partnerships to help connect low-income Americans with jobs. As president, Obama will work to eliminate transportation disparities so that all Americans can lead meaningful and productive lives. Obama will double the federal Jobs Access and Reverse Commute (JARC) program to ensure that additional federal public transportation dollars flow to the highest-need communities and that urban planning initiatives take this aspect of transportation policy into account. JARC funds have been used to connect low-income workers around the country with job opportunities.

Improve and Modernize Air Traffic Control: Because of an outdated air-traffic control system and overscheduling at airports already operating at full capacity, there were a record number of flight delays during the first half of 2007. Moreover, the Federal Aviation Administration has failed to work well with our nation’s air traffic controllers, neglecting to treat them with the respect they deserve. There are nearly 1,100 fewer air traffic controllers working in U.S. air traffic facilities today than three years ago, despite increasing air traffic.

Obama will work with Congress to modernize the nation’s air traffic control system and he will direct the new FAA Administrator to work cooperatively with the frontline air traffic controllers to restore morale and improve working conditions and operations at the agency.

SAFEGUARD TRANSPORTATION FROM TERRORISM
Protect Transportation Infrastructure from Terrorism: The federal government’s National Asset Database, which is intended to guide homeland security priorities, lists 77,069 potential U.S. targets including petting zoos and popcorn factories. Experts say this database is not useful for homeland security planning. Barack Obama's Department of Homeland Security will develop a meaningful critical infrastructure protection plan across the nation and will work with the private sector to ensure that all high-risk targets are prepared for disasters both natural and man-made.

Bolster Airport Security: Between October 2005 and January 2006, Government Accountability Office investigators were able to smuggle bomb components past federal screeners at all 21 airports they targeted. And airline passengers are still not screened against a comprehensive, accurate terrorist watch list. As a result, almost six years after 9/11, we still have a security system that results in eight-year olds and grandmothers being repeatedly questioned and even stopped from flying. Developing a comprehensive, accurate list must be a priority and used in a way that safeguards passengers' privacy while ensuring the safety of air travel. As a member of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, Barack Obama believes we must redouble our efforts to determine if the measures implemented after 9/11 are adequately addressing the threats our nation continues to face from airplane-based terrorism. Obama has supported increased numbers of federal airport screeners and improved funding for aviation security.


Safeguard Mass Public Transportation: Every weekday, Americans take 34 million trips on public transportation systems to get to work, school and beyond. Even though recent attacks have happened on public transit in Madrid, Mumbai and London, the Bush administration has invested only a small fraction of the $6 billion that transportation officials have said is necessary to implement needed security improvements. Barack Obama believes that this critical hole in our homeland security network must be addressed. He will fight for greater information-sharing between national intelligence agents and local officials and provide local law enforcement agencies with the everyday tools they need to protect their transportation systems. As a U.S. Senator representing Chicago, Illinois, one of the nation’s major rail transportation hubs, Obama has consistently advocated stronger rail and transit security programs. "

Obama's transportation plan is long on "strengthening" "improving" and "modernizing". It is a little short on "funding", or on tying revenue to benefits. As a proponent of transparency in government, Obama should be in favor of direct user charges where possible and against hidden subsidies (which lead to over-consumption and economic externalities).

February 14, 2008

McCain and Transportation Policy

John McCain looks to be the Republican nominee for President in 2008.

What are his transportation policies?

As with Obama, there is no explicit transportation policy tab on the candidate's web page. But we can ascertain a few things from his website and other sources: (quotes from website unless otherwise attributed)

(1) He is against earmarks. The good people of Arizona have been blessed by a Senator who refuses to bring home bacon on moral grounds.

"Ending Pork Barrel Spending: Year after year, powerful members of Congress divert taxpayer dollars to special interest pet projects with little or no national value. This practice is especially egregious during wartime, when any federal spending wasted on parochial programs to satisfy special interests represents a failure by the federal government to properly steward tax dollars. John McCain has steadfastly fought to reform this broken system and end the self-serving largesse that defines the current budget process.

As president, John McCain will oppose spending money on projects that siphon away tax dollars collected to fund these important commitments. Setting priorities, and keeping them, is a crucial step toward fiscal restraint and an important priority for a McCain presidency. Every dollar irresponsibly spent by Congress is a dollar diverted from pressing national priorities including lowering the tax burden on working Americans, supporting the men and women fighting the war on terror, making good on the nation's financial commitments at home, including to senior citizens, and paying down the national debt."

To wit: McCain voted against SAFETEA-LU, the last surface transportation bills on the grounds of pork. He does not however oppose in principle federal highway spending (McCain's statement) , rather the specifics of the particular legislation, which he argues was inequitable.

(2) John McCain is a conservationist who is for clean air and believes in the existence of global warming (for a Republican, this is progress) and who "has offered common sense approaches to limit carbon emissions by harnessing market forces that will bring advanced technologies, such as nuclear energy, to the market faster, reduce our dependence on foreign supplies of energy, and see to it that America leads in a way that ensures all nations do their rightful share."

(3) John McCain supports space exploration
"John McCain is a strong supporter of NASA and the space program. He is proud to have sponsored legislation authorizing funding consistent with the President's vision for the space program, which includes a return of astronauts to the Moon in preparation for a manned mission to Mars. He believes support for a continued US presence in space is of major importance to America's future innovation and security. He has also been a staunch advocate for ensuring that NASA funding is accompanied by proper management and oversight to ensure that the taxpayers receive the maximum return on their investment. John McCain believes curiosity and a drive to explore have always been quintessential American traits. This has been most evident in the space program, for which he will continue his strong support. "

(4) He seems to oppose Amtrak funding, which is not surprising given Arizona's lack of service, and its consistent money-losing nature, see here , and supports state flexibility on using federal funds.

(5) He has generally opposed federal subsidies for ethanol, though he supports it if the price of oil is high enough to make it economically efficient.

February 13, 2008

Obama's National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank

From The Page - by Mark Halperin , Senator Obama is proposing a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank today:

"For our economy, our safety, and our workers, we have to rebuild America. I’m proposing a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank that will invest $60 billion over ten years. This investment will multiply into almost half a trillion dollars of additional infrastructure spending and generate nearly two million new jobs – many of them in the construction industry that’s been hard hit by this housing crisis. The repairs will be determined not by politics, but by what will maximize our safety and homeland security; what will keep our environment clean and our economy strong. And we’ll fund this bank by ending this war in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending billions of dollars a week trying to put Iraq back together and start spending the money on putting America back together instead.�

This may be based on the Hagel-Dodd bill: National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2007. Full text

The claim is that there is an under-investment in infrastructure, and this would channel some additional money that way. Clearly infrastructure investment levels as a share of GDP have been declining over time. This follows from it being a maturing sector of the economy, and if we had not had a decline in infrastructure spending as a share of the economy, we could not have a concomitant increase in the shares of other faster growing sectors (information technology for instance).

The key for a bank though is that it loans money and is repaid with interest. It tries to maximize return on investment. First, it needs to be depoliticized, which is promised by the Hagel-Dodd bill, but needs to be guaranteed. Second, there needs to be payback. It is not clear how "free" roads will be able to pay back loans for their construction. (No mention is made of toll roads or other repayment mechanisms). Clearly they may generate some economic growth, but with proposal suggesting that " The financing package could include direct subsidies, direct loan guarantees, long-term tax-credit general purpose bonds, and long-term tax-credit infrastructure project specific bonds." it seems more like additional federal disbursement than a conventional bank that gets a direct return.

The bill aims at large projects, the risk is they turn into mega-projects (like the Big Dig), whose benefits are elusive and costs are real. The opportunity is they do something great (like the original Interstate Highway System).

The key to note is that existing infrastructure is aging, and much of it does need to be repaired, rehabilitated, or replaced. One hopes this money is directed toward existing problems, rather on speculative new infrastructure. The United States highway system is mature. Until it can be replaced with something better (as railroad largely replaced canals), it needs to be maintained, and to some extent grown slowly, but if we are to make major new investments, they should lie along a new technological trajectory, not more of the same.

One of the positive attributes of such a bank however is that it moves infrastructure funding from a "pay-as-you-go" model (as with the current highway bill based on the gas tax) to one based on bonding. This helps temporally spread the costs across beneficiaries, and is how large long-term capital projects should be financed. (See my paper here (Published in Journal of Urban Planning and Development American Society of Civil Engineers 127(4) 146-157 (Dec))))

January 31, 2008

Obama

I am supporting Barack Obama for President.

What are his transportation policies?

The first thing to note is that Obama's campaign does not have a written statement devoted to transportation, clearly few people vote for President on transportation issues. So his positions need to be gleaned from a variety of sources.

From his website:

"Improve Transportation Access to Jobs: As president, Obama will work to ensure that low-income Americans have transportation access to jobs. Obama will double the federal Jobs Access and Reverse Commute program to ensure that additional federal public transportation dollars flow to the highest-need communities and that urban planning initiatives take this aspect of transportation policy into account."

Given that there are federal public transportation dollars to be allocated, they should go to places with the highest need. Far too many public transportation dollars are spent trying to attract choice riders rather than better serving those who actually rely on the system. Serving reverse commutes with public transportation is quite difficult (you are going to very dispersed destinations, generally not the most easily served areas by transit). If there are jobs going unfilled in the suburbs with unemployed workers living elsewhere, there is a spatial mismatch. There may also be a salary mismatch. Transportation is one solution, others include changing locations of origins and destinations, and changing the skill levels (human capital) of the workers, or the skills required and salaries provided on the other end.

Obama has a very progressive space policy supporting continued exploration and expansion of scientific research. Space is important for the long term future. Eventually (and I am talking really long term), we may need to leave the planet. (Not even because we destroyed it through irresponsible human behavior (environmental catastrophe, nuclear war, though that may accelerate the day). Space exploration is a very expensive endeavor, with a possible benefit for a low probability (at least short term) but potentially very dangerous outcome (e.g. large asteroid crashing into the earth, or the sun going supernova). In addition to all of the scientific benefits, it is about ensuring flexibility and keeping options open.

Obama adopted most of the Democrat positions on energy policy. While Obama supports cap-and-trade as opposed to a carbon tax (i.e. regulation of CO2 emissions via quotas rather than taxes), he at least acknowledges there will be costs associated with it. For a discussion see Greg Mankiw's Blog. For a variety of reasons, I believe carbon taxes are more efficient, they give the market the right incentive, without establishing arbitrary property rights in pollution, and without specifying how carbon emissions be reduced, either carbon tax or the more burdensome cap-and-trade is an improvement over the current system giving a free ride to polluters.

Obama also has most of the "smart growth" positions on local transportation (see Streetsblog). It is a bit prescriptive and top-down in my view, as well as focusing on lots of micro-issues that divert attention from big policy shifts that could significantly affect transportation or environmental outcomes (among them real road pricing, appropriate carbon taxes, and decentralized decision-making and true federalism).

Selecting a President is not about rationally deciding which collection of written policies most closely matches your own preferences, but rather about how you believe an individual will react to events that emerge, and how they can shape those events, and provide leadership to shape people's reactions to them in a positive direction. Understanding how candidates stand on transportation policy is an interesting indicator of how they may act and react to events. Politics is about matching the ideal with the possible, I am not a politician so my view of the possible is not shaped by the hall of mirrors that constitute the state houses and government buildings throughout the country. However, I have found little evidence that experience is a virtue. Experience hardens the mind, and makes it more difficult to think in new ways. We need leaders who are open to ideas, not leaders who recoil at them.

March 3, 2007

The Co-Evolution of London's Land Use and Transport

updated August 25, 2009:

For those of you who doubt I am doing work over in London, I have completed two other papers (in addition to "Too Expensive to Meter" based on my research over here):

  • Levinson, David (2008) The Orderliness Hypothesis: Does Population Density Explain the Sequence of Rail Station Opening in London? Journal of Transport History 29(1) March 2008 pp.98-114.[download]
  • Network growth is a complex phenomenon. Some have suggested that it occurs in an orderly or rational way, based on the size of the places that are connected. David Levinson examines the order in which stations were added to the London surface rail and Underground rail networks in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, testing the extent to which order correlates with population density. While population density is an important factor in explaining order, he shows that other factors were at work. The network itself helps to reshape land uses, and a network that may have been well ordered at one time may drift away from order as activities relocate.


  • Levinson, David (2008) Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London. Journal of Economic Geography 8(1) 55-57.
    JEG: [doi]
  • This article examines the changes that occurred in the rail network and density of population in London during the 19th and 20th centuries. It aims to disentangle the 'chicken and egg' problem of which came first, network or land development, through a set of statistical analyses clearly distinguishing events by order. Using panel data representing the 33 boroughs of London over each decade from 1871 to 2001, the research finds that there is a positive feedback effect between population density and network density. Additional rail stations (either Underground or surface) are positive factors leading to subsequent increases in population in the suburbs of London, while additional population density is a factor in subsequently deploying more rail. These effects differ in central London, where the additional accessibility produced by rail led to commercial development and concomitant depopulation. There are also differences in the effects associated with surface rail stations and Underground stations, as the Underground was able to get into central London in a way that surface rail could not. However, the two networks were weak (and statistically insignificant) substitutes for each other in the suburbs, while the density of surface rail stations was a complement to the Underground in the center, though not vice versa.


Perhaps more interesting for the non-academic, we (Ahmed El-Geneidy, Feng Xie, and myself of the Nexus group) have put together three quicktime movies


  • 1.The co-evolution of London population density and surface (National) rail

  • 2.The co-evolution of London population density and the Underground

  • 3.The co-evolution of London population density and surface (National) rail and the Underground


These can be accessed from here.