Minnesota ranks among worst in DWIs, study shows
"Minnesota has one of the nation's worst drunken driving rates, said a government report that says 15 percent of adult drivers nationally report driving under the influence of alcohol in the previous year. Here are the states with the worst records:
1. Wisconsin, 26.4 percent
2. North Dakota, 26.4 percent
3. Minnesota, 23.5 percent
4. Nebraska, 22.9 percent
5. South Dakota, 21.6 percent"
Note, these are also almost exactly the states with the highest social capital according to Robert Putnam's index (see the book Bowling Alone)
Table 4.1 Social capital scores by state
Rank State Score
1 North Dakota 1.712
2 South Dakota 1.693
3 Vermont 1.424
4 Minnesota 1.325
5 Montana 1.296
6 Nebraska 1.157
7 Iowa 0.988
8 New Hampshire 0.779
9 Wyoming 0.6710
10 Washington 0.6511
11 Wisconsin 0.5912
12 Oregon 0.57
(Source: Putnam 2000)
(Kevin Krizek and I discuss Putnam's social capital idea in the book Planning for Place and Plexus
This raises the interesting question: does alcohol lubricate Putnam's social capital?
From a social perspective, drinking alone at home may be better than drinking away from home. But what do I know, I am a teetotaler.
As I was thinking about a new road design, I found a number that had been patented. The idea of patenting a road may seem a little strange, but it has happened a number of times. In very few cases have the patented designs become widely used. Some references below:
Traffic intersection - Patent 3915580
Simultaneous left turn vehicular intersection - US Patent 5795095
Traffic interchange - US Patent 5921701
Some additional prior art cited in patents above:
1173505
February 1916 - Hale
1515251 November 1924 -Graves
1543080 June 1925 - Graves
3107590
October 1963- Cedeno
3272097
September 1966 -
Gazis et al.
3915580 October 1975 - Kaufman
4592673
June 1986 - Lee
4630961 December 1986 - Hellwig
5049000 September 1991 - Mier
Stillwater Lift Bridge is up, but when's it coming down?
From the article in the Strib:
"McFarland said that the lift bridge getting stuck "has happened a lot. It's an old bridge. You kind of expect this.""
Gives one lots of confidence in Minnesota's infrastructure.
An article in the St. Cloud Times announces the 2008 MnDOT construction program, including replacement of the DeSoto Bridge.
The state list includes 135 projects
The Metro area list is given in the Pioneer Press
Special license plates shield officials from traffic tickets
"Muir discovered that drivers covered under the Confidential Records Program abuse the system by evading toll road charges, running red lights at intersections with red light cameras, parking illegally, and breaking other traffic laws with impunity."
From the Telegraph:
15mph speed limit to force people out of cars
The UK is planning a series of 15 new "eco-towns". As part of their design, a 15mph (Britain is not consistently metric) speed limit in the heart of these new towns hopes to discourage auto use, in stark contrast to the older new towns (Stevanage to Milton Keynes) which made freeflowing traffic a centerpiece.
From Freakonomics: Your City Needs You to Blow Through Red Lights
Apparently too much enforcement induces too much compliance, so there is not enough revenue to pay for the enforcement. There must be an equilibrium between revenue and compliance.
I heard this a few years ago, and going through old notes, decided to post, from the CBC series: As It Happens
To listen: Real Audio file, go to minute 21m:20s
The introductory text: "For as long as most of us can remember, the citizens of North America have been firmly entrenched on the right. Now, a bold and shocking proposal in the state of Ohio may result in a wild shift to the left. And it will come as no surprise that the French are involved.
The Ohio Department of Transportation is currently mulling over an unprecedented traffic diversion. If a recent recommendation comes to fruition, drivers on U.S. Highway 224 may find themselves driving -- if only briefly -- on the left side of the road. The lane-reversal plan is a proposed import from the city of Versailles, France, where Gallic drivers have found it to be "la rue juste"."
This is a clever idea to avoid left-turn conflicts (or at least put them where you want them and make the crossovers seem like through movements. Wikipedia has an article.
My former classmate, Joe Bared, now at FHWA did a study with colleagues:
TechBrief: Drivers' Evaluation of the Diverging Diamond Interchange, FHWA-HRT-07-048
The Hwy 224 proposal in Ohio was rejected. The proposal for Kansas City seems alive.
Via Amateur Ramblings From Weburbanist, some more cool photos: 7 Urban Wonders of the World: Amazing and Record-Setting City Roads and Streets
MnDOT has closed the DeSoto Bridge in St. Cloud:
From MPR: Officials weigh next steps for the DeSoto Bridge
From Pioneer Press: St. Cloud Minnesota 23 Over The Mississippi River / New DeSoto Bridge given a top priority
From Strib Replace St. Cloud bridge? Or repair it?, complete with the quote from the local State Senator:
"State Sen. Tarryl Clark, DFL-St. Cloud, hopes that a replacement bridge can proceed with some of the speed that's been the hallmark of the 35W bridge reconstruction. State funding is available, federal help might be possible and a design-build process could be used to speed things up, she said.
The Hwy. 23 bridge is a major link not only for St. Cloud but also for the state, she said. Much of the bridge's traffic comes from outside the local area, she said, and if it takes several years to get a new crossing, "I don't know how the community is going to make it.""
(Perhaps St. Cloud will cease to exist?)
and from the local paper, a more interesting discussion: The St. Cloud Times:
Plans in Work
Note the discussion of earmarks for a related bridge. And the problems when trying to use that earmark money (two of three bridges would be closed at once). Why the federal government would even consider allocating funds to a state highway remains puzzling (from a normative, not a positive, point of view).
Via Digg: If you ignore all of the annoying advertising, there are some really cool intersection photos here:
Incomprehensible Intersections
and here:
From New Scientist Shockwave traffic jam recreated for first time.
Yes, when a car taps its brake and a road is at capacity, shockwaves ensue. Yes not all drivers are identical, and yes some drivers are random. Candidate for Ignobel prize?
In real life, we don't drive on circular test tracks, and there are gaps, allowing traffic to eventually recover. One could have looked at race cars for a similar experiment.
Another study on Using GPS Mobile Phones as Traffic Sensors, this from Berkeley. See earlier Transportationist post for some discussion of this. Also see Evaluation of Cell Phone Traffic Data, a study underway by my colleague Henry Liu.
From the Evening Standard: Camera that can catch lone drivers in car-sharing lanes.
This has always been a difficult problem for authorities, as enforcement has in the past required human eyeballs. Researchers have experiment with infra-red to determine the heat profile inside the car, but that was apparently problematic. But in the home of the panopticon, cameras (with appropriate recognition systems) will be able to identify the number (and apparently race) of passengers in the vehicle.
Another one of those fun stories about how following GPS can ruin your day (or your car) (via Engadget): Man follows GPS directions onto train tracks, into dummy hall of fame
From the AP: Study: Drivers on Cells Clogging Traffic
In addition to being a hazard, it seems drivers using cell phones also slow down traffic. I wonder if this delay is offset by the faster response times to incidents because cell phones are ubiquitous.
In response to letters from the President of the University of Minnesota, former U of Mn Regent, Peter Bell, currently Chair of the Metropolitan Council now endorses Central Corridor on Washington Avenue at grade.
Now maybe someone will seriously consider getting private cars off of Washington Avenue if it is such a safety and congestion trap (which of course it would be were cars, buses, trucks, light rail, pedestrians, and bicyclists trying to simultaneously use that space). The price would be much lower than a tunnel (some paint, some bollards, and a "Do Not Enter" sign for starters).
Think about it this way, construction is effectively going to close Washington Avenue to traffic anyway for some period of time, just keep it closed.
This not too technical link might help some university officials rethink the issue.
From Induced Demand to Reduced Demand
OR
Effects of Roadway Capacity Reductions.
The I-35W Bridge collapse provides another example. 140,000 trips crossed the Mississippi River Bridge before the collapse, according to MnDOT's Nick Thomson (presented at a seminar at the University of Minnesota), only 90,000 can be accounted for on other crossings.
Should Washington Avenue really be carrying traffic through campus? Should campus have a major thoroughfare in its midst?
From NYT (via Slashdot) Left-Hand-Turn Elimination UPS is trying to eliminate left-turns, which typically have more delay (and thus fuel consumption and air pollution) than through or right-turn movements. This of course should be true primarily at permitted rather than protected lefts, it wasn't clear from the article whether UPS has signal timings in its database.
From Techcrunch: Google Mobile Maps PinPoints Your Location Without GPS
This technology uses cell phone towers (and triangulation) to locate you. While not as perfect as GPS, it should be useful for general navigation, especially with added algorithms to smooth out the jumpyness. It is an idea long speculated on (in the transportation community see: this article by my late colleague YB Yim for a review and this for one of the earliest papers on the idea. ) that is finally seeing commercialization.
From the Guardian, via Slashdot: Japan's melody roads play music as you drive
If you drive at a fixed speed the road will play a tune via grooves cut into the pavement. One can envision this as a way to get drivers to stick to the speed limit, though surely there are more practical means.
From Ars Technica: Google at the gas pump translates to happy motorists, retailers.
So getting lost will be less common, since maps will be more available. Whether these will be printable was unclear. Of course there are about 180,000 gas stations in the United States, so this is at best an experimental, first stage deployment, but it might be deployed more quickly than GPS with mapping software in every vehicle.
Via The Register:
Carnegie Mellon wins the robotic Urban Challenge
Two articles on speeding, one from Techdirt about how GPS can dis-prove a speeding allegation:
GPS Tracking: Drivers' New Best Friend?
The second from the New York Times about police over-enforcement and beating (stemming from alleged traffic violations) leading to a drivers' rebellion in Russia.
Weary of Highway Bribery, Russians Take on Police.
They are both rebellions against extortion, one extortion has a slightly greater veneer of legitimacy (it is the state seeking the payoff rather than the individual officers), but in the end it is the state's monopoly on the use of force as Max Weber put it, that enables this practice.
(Yes of course, speeding is wrong, but wrongful enforcement is also wrong).
MnDOT made the right decision by avoiding a groundbreaking ceremony for the I-35W bridge ...
Ceremony for new bridge skipped - Minnesota Daily
Will there be a "ribbon cutting" though?
The Oberstar Forum on Transportation Policy and Technology: The Condition of Our Nation's Transportation Infrastructure: Heading Toward a Crisis? was held this past Sunday and Monday. The CTS website advertises the public Monday session, but there was a double-secret, super private, unadvertised, invitation only session attended by the elites in the transportation community (i.e. I was invited). These private sessions are more interesting in that there is less speech-making and more discussion, though one can hardly say there was no speech making. In fact, I gave a talk on the Cost of Frugality, which I have posted.
MnDOT unveiled plans for the new I-35W replacement bridge day before yesterday... Interstate 35W Bridge in Minneapolis, MN, The main distinction in alternatives seems to be which way the piers are oriented. I think the best you can say about it is that it is unimaginative, but probably better looking than what went before. One never can truly visualize the bridge until it is complete, but I am not optimistic. There are opportunities to do interesting things in the space along the water under the bridge, Sydney does some great things under highway bridges there. It is not clear if those opportunities will be taken, but that is something that can be done later.
Clearly MnDOT missed the boat on the opportunity to use airrights over the bridge for some positive good (in addition to avoiding snow removal and de-icing costs) which is too bad, but not surprising.
Nevertheless, I am amazed that if Aesthetics/Visual Quality amounted to 20% of points available for technical evaluation, that something so mediocre will be built though.
From the Washington Post: Infrared Scans May Regulate HOT Lanes. The latest technology used to detect cheaters in HOV/HOT lanes.
(1) Hopefully they won't throw out this data after its collected (see previous post on LA), it does have valuable planning uses in predicting mode utilization.
(2) Any semblance of privacy you thought you had is gone, hopefully we can watch the watchers just as easily as they watch us. David Brin's Transparent Society is interesting in this regard.
(3) The amount of effort we go to in order to enforce minor rules is amazing. In the absence of congestion on the HOV lane, (and the presence of congestion in the general purpose lanes) it is actually efficient for there to be some small amount of cheating: it takes a car out of the congested lanes, puts it in the uncongested lanes (without congesting them) and produces a net benefit to society. Too much clearly would congest the HOV/HOT lanes. It reminds one of the expression "A Puritan is someone who is deathly afraid that someone somewhere is having fun." The point isn't that it is costing society to have some cheating, the point is that "free riding" is cheating and "unfair" whatever that means.
As with many large infrastructure projects, the estimated cost of the I-35W replacement bridge rises and rises. How come public officials never over-estimate initial costs? (Perhaps a question for my Transport Policy class).
Articles from the Strib and PiPress:
Sticker shock: Bridge tab soars by $143 million
From the front page of the LA Times web page, an article on traffic counts!: L.A. doesn't save data on traffic growth
"But although the sensors and computers collect massive amounts of data about traffic patterns and congestion, they do little to help engineers plan for the city's growing transportation needs -- or determine how development is affecting traffic.
That's because the city does not save the information for more than a few days, using it only to direct traffic in real time by adjusting the speed at which lights turn from green to amber to red."
This is true elsewhere (Minneapolis e.g.), and a damn shame. I have been in meetings about this, but people are frugal and the beneficiaries are in different departments/units than those who would do the work.
From the Strib: Nick Coleman: Let's call 'em 'faith-based bridges' -- pray you get across
Coleman (Nick) gets it right.
After bridge fall, engineers worry about undue alarm
"State highway officials around the country want the government to stop scaring the public by using dire-sounding phrases such as "structurally deficient" and "fracture critical" to describe bridges in need of repairs."
Perhaps they forgot a bridge fell down. This occurred in part because there was *not* enough attention to bridges. Perhaps scarier terms are useful here. Certainly the real problems should rank worse than the non-problems, but the previous problem of under-investment has not suddenly disappeared. As the average age of bridges increases, the likelihood of collapse also increases in the absence of rehabilitation.
Modeling themselves on car dealers ""Car dealers no longer have 'used' cars. They instead switched to 'previously owned.' Can't we similarly come up with nomenclature that is less of an issue?" Minnesota said in its response." is hardly reassuring. People hardly hold car dealers in high regard.
From CBC (via Zvi) Montreal mayor wants inspection reports for private buildings. It seems our neighbor to the north has crumbling infrastructure too. This is somehow reassuring (if it can happen to Canada it can happen anywhere, so it's not anything "we" did or didn't do), on the other hand it suggests there is no easy example to point to, if only we did like "so and so" we wouldn't have these problems.
Awareness of crumbling infrastructure is like a virus (whether the infrastructure itself is crumbling because of some contagion would be an interesting scientific hypothesis, but doubtful).
From today's Minnesota Public Radio: I-35W bridge collapse could produce U of M traffic headaches ... I am interviewed and the blog gets a mention.
One of the interesting scientific questions that emerges from the tragedy of the I-35W Bridge Collapse is how traffic responds. There are several time horizons for looking at this.
Most immediately are those who are on the link leading up to the bridge. MnDOT's traffic cameras show the cars turning around on the freeway within seconds of the bridge collapsing, before the dust clears literally. "Video footage of the collapse from Mn/DOT traffic camera 628. 6:05 p.m., Aug. 1, shows an edited two-minute clip from a traffic camera at the south end of the bridge. Initially, the camera is pointed to the south away from the bridge. When traffic comes to a stop, the camera pans to the north where the bridge has just collapsed. (wv file)". This is a rational response on the part of drivers who don't know what else may collapse. As my wife says, there are two types of people "those who run towards the meteorite and those who run from it". Survivors are those who ran from it.
Over the next few minutes and hours, word of the bridge collapse spread. My student Shanjiang Zhu has organized MnDOT's loop detector data into a movie that shows the 15 minute traffic counts on all the loop detectors in the Twin Cities, comparing that number with the previous Wednesday's count at the same time of day. Blue indicates lower volumes, red higher volumes. Clearly after the collapse, people heard quickly through various sources (cell phone, variable message signs, radio, etc.), and avoided large swaths of I-35W in the vicinity (which turns blue) and complementary feeder links, while competititve substitute links (Mn 100, I 35E, parts of I-94) saw an increase. We still have to compute how overall traffic volume and Vehicle Kilometers Traveled changed.
Once people were informed, on subsequent days people searched for alternatives. The alternative the first day for some was to avoid driving, but that quickly changed, and different routes became natural substitutes. A second movie compares the counts on the 15 days after the collapse with the average of the previous 8 weeks same day of week (so a Thursday is compared with the eight pre-collapse Thursdays). This illustrates the changes network wide. The
movie is available.
Finally, there may be some longer term adaptations, but we don't have enough information only one month into the changed situation to know about this yet. With colleagues Henry Liu and Kathleen Harder, we have obtained a National Science Foundation Small Grant for Exploratory Research to look at all of these issues in some more depth.
Prior to leaving for London we sold our second car to cash up for the trip. On return, we had two children, two drivers and one car. As I usually walk to work, this is normally fine, but on occassion one has offsite meetings. For this
Zipcar has several locations on campus at the University of Minnesota where they keep cars. For a fixed fee, I get the opportunity to rent cars from Zipcar with a minimum of paperwork and contracts. I can reserve the car online (assuming it is available, which may turn into a problem if demand is high) and then can rent the car for $8 per hour plus tax. This sounds expensive, and requires planning, but in exchange I avoid all the fixed costs of auto ownership.
I am issued a Zipcard, which I swipe over the keyhole on the car I reserved, and electromagically, the car door unlocks. The key is in the car. I am responsible for fueling, parking etc., but presumably Zipcar takes care of maintenance and insurance.
Using the car yesterday went quite smoothly once I figured out the operation of the Zipcard in unlocking the door (it sounds obvious, but isn't quite, and didn't work immediately, though did a second time), and getting out of the garage (which requires the use of the parking garage contract card, which is in the car, but is again not obvious if you have not done so before.
Otherwise, the car was where it was supposed to be, ran fine, and I have had no problems with the experience.
The only problem I foresee is if demand outstrips supply, renting on-demand may become difficult. Zipcar could add vehicles to the fleet, but there may be some lag on this. However, like many network industries, the more members, the more valuable, as it will then be available in more places, and my likelihood of getting a car when and where I want will be easier.
In today's WaPo: China Bans Reporting on Bridge Collapse - washingtonpost.com
"Communist authorities have banned most state media from reporting on the deadly collapse of a bridge in southern China, with local officials punching and chasing reporters from the scene, reporters said Friday."
Apparently physics works in both communist and non-communist countries; but a free press only in non-communist ones.
Article from today's Strib: Phone call put brakes on bridge repair
"Plans to reinforce the bridge were well underway when the project came to a screeching halt in January amid concerns about safety and cost."
From BBC: Chinese bridge collapse kills 22
The I-35 W Bridge over the Mississippi River in Minneapolis collapsed at 6:05 pm CDT last night. The Strib reports: 9 dead, 60 injured, 20 missing after dozens of vehicles plummet into river
This is of course a tragedy for those directly involved. I myself was driving under the bridge earlier yesterday with family. Fortunately that was 3 hours earlier, and everyone in my immediate family is safe. It is of course shocking to think about this bridge that I have traveled hundreds of times (about 2 miles from my house) collapsing. Having just returned to Minneapolis about 36 hours ago (I was actually going to say something nice about Northwest Airlines), this was not the welcome I was seeking.
I have some random thoughts below,
== Network Effects ==
What will be the effects of the collapse on traffic?
Networks are complex things. MnDOT has suggested using the roughly parallel MN-280 as a bypass, and have (temporarily?) converted the road to a freeway by turning to green the only traffic light on the road (why was the light never replaced earlier?)
There are other possible substitutes, that MnDOT and the local neighborhoods will not want to encourage as bypasses. For long distance trips, the I-494/I-694 beltway, US-169, Mn 100, and I-35E will one suspect get additional traffic. (hypothesis #1).
For shorter distance trips, traffic that would have gone down I-35W may divert to Mn-280, Broadway to I-94, or Snelling Avenue (which is a limited access highway for a good stretch, and should be immediately have its traffic signals retimed to accommodate additional traffic)
It might take some time for a new equilibrium pattern of traffic to re-emerge. It is still summer vacation period, so the University of Minnesota has not started a full fall semester, and traffic levels are relatively low, giving some change to adjust. The day after Labor Day will be another time to test.
As a result of this however, some other problem sections of road may no longer be as problematic. The merge from I-35W sb to I-94 wb should not cause problems for instance (hypothesis).
There might be interactions with the Crosstown reconstruction, as that is also discouraging traffic from using I-35W a few miles south. It might make more sense now to consider just closing all of I-35 W so they can do the reconstruction faster (assuming closure would make it easier to do the construction under the current design).
== Reconstruction ==
Some recent bridge collapses (I-580 in the Bay Area) were remedied quite quickly. I think this will be longer. First it is a much larger bridge. Second, it will clearly require redesign, as the first design failed for "unknown" reasons (as opposed to a a truck exploding, which may not be worth defending against).
== Structures ==
I am not a structural engineer. This report by my late colleague Bob Dexter is interesting
http://www.cts.umn.edu/Publications/ResearchReports/reportdetail.html?id=617
Fatigue Evaluation of the Deck Truss of Bridge 9340
Robert Dexter, Heather O'Connell, Paul Bergson
March 2001
Report no. Mn/DOT 2001-10
Of course the abstract, while noting problems with the design,it said "As a result, Mn/DOT does not need to prematurely replace this bridge because of fatigue cracking, avoiding the high costs associated with such a large project." This was published 6 years ago , probably finished 7 years ago, and things change. Reports in the news media say the bridge was structurally deficient. We still don't know what element of the bridge failed first, or if the construction on the bridge had any role (one suspects it does, but that is still speculation).
== Politics ==
(1) Allocation of resources to new facilities rather than repair and maintenance.
This is a classic problem in transportation funding. Ribbon cuttings on new projects are much more politically "sexy" than maintaining what we have. People are also more interested in road surface than the underlying structure. Yet pavement failure, while bad, is not nearly as bad as structural failure. "Failure" in the traffic level of service sense, while economically costly and personally annoying, and perhaps leading to more (or at least different) crashes, does not have anywhere near the same connotation as structural collapse.
(2) Vetoing the gas tax
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty recently vetoed a legislature-passed increase in the gas tax that could have raised money to repair bridges like this one. The latest gas tax would not have solved this problem, but previous taxes that were not passed (due in part to Pawlenty's previous veto threat) may have, had the money been spent on this kind of thing.
(3) Pointing fingers
It is too soon to say "J'accuse". Most people will probably want to wait for rescue and recover operations to be complete, and then for memorial services, and then for a more thorough investigation. However, MSNBC was starting early speculating in which direction the fingers would wind up pointing.
(4) Funding the stadiums
Minnesota is in the process of building 3 new stadiums (Twins, Gophers, and eventually the Vikings). Is this the best use of local funds? Hopefully this will be a shock to the system.
== U of Mn ==
Keeping with the University of Minnesota tradition, classes will go on today as scheduled. Classes were cancelled on 9.11, but that happened the same day.
== Crisis vs. Opportunity ==
Rebuilding the bridge is of course a crisis, but it is also an opportunity to do something interesting. I speak in particular of air rights. A bridge over the Mississippi is expensive. But imagine having a 2 or 3 story office building hanging from below, or built above the highway. A view of the river from offices is probably among the best in Minnesota. It will not impair other's view of the river especially much, and would generate a significant amount of revenue to pay for reconstruction.
An example would be the historic London Bridge, which had houses and stores along the side, encroaching on travelways. There are better ways to combine transportation arteries with development opportunities, and creative design can show the way.
From The Times (via Techdirt) Pensioners take cash and points to keep speeding drivers on the road
"It is the latest ruse on the roads of France: drivers are avoiding disqualification by trading licence points on the internet.
Complete strangers are taking the rap for speeding offences in return for up to €1,500 (£1,000), and police admit they are powerless to intervene. Even pensioners who have not driven for many years are getting in on the act."
Basically since the speed camera cannot see inside the vehicle, and the violation goes with the driver not the car, people can lie about who was driving. Whoever said the French were insufficiently entrepreneurial?