Yes, Cheer Or Die is taking the day to journey to his beloved Irish pub to quaff a few ales and celebrate taking another step closer to extinction. And he'll probably end the day with a few spoonfuls of ice-cream. So, raise a toast to COD and wish him well so that he can return Thursday to bring you the unveiling........

....we now join our movie in progress.

With the number seventeen pick in the 2006 NFL entry draft, the Minnesota Vikings stand at an organizational crossroads—play for today or build for tomorrow. Still needing at least a middle linebacker and probably an outside linebacker to be a legitimate contender for a championship, but also needing a backup quarterback with a high learning curve, the Vikings are in a position to draft for 2006 or to defer returns to 2007 or later.

Drafting a linebacker that is capable of playing in the middle in year one is a dicey proposition in most drafts. This year, however, there appear to be two such players—Ohio State’s AJ Hawk and Iowa’s Chad Greenway. Speculation continues to swirl regarding the Vikings’ prospects of obtaining either Hawk or Greenway. Given the linebacking needs of teams currently drafting ahead of Minnesota, the closest thing to a certainty is that neither player will be in Minnesota purple next year if Minnesota does not move up in the draft.

By standing pat, the Vikings probably would miss out on an opportunity not only to draft Hawk and Greenway, but also to draft Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and B.J. Cutler. And that would mean that the Vikings will have left the off-season without filling their most glaring weakness for four seasons running and without filling a suddenly urgent need at quarterback.

The Argument for Standing Pat

Despite the fact that, by not moving up in the draft, the Vikings might forfeit their opportunity to address their most glaring needs in this year’s draft, the Vikings might be better served retaining their number seventeen selection spot and their subsequent first-day selections. The argument favoring such a decision rests on both math and numbers.

The math portion of the equation is fairly simple. By moving up in the draft the Viking will be assured of signing a player that they covet. They also will be assured of spending large on that player’s signing bonus. To nab Hawk, the Vikings probably would need to move into the top four of the draft. Last year, the number four pick, Cedric Benson, received a signing bonus in the neighborhood of $18 million. Conversely, last year’s number seventeen pick, David Pollack, received a signing bonus of $5.45 million. While both represent sizeable bonuses, Pollack’s clearly is more cap friendly and significantly more manageable. The stark contrast in dollar figures between a high and middle first-round pick might, alone, warrant a Vikings’ decision to stand pat this year.

But the difference between the Vikings trading up and retaining their number seventeen pick must be considered not only in financial terms, but also in terms of what the Vikings would have to cede in exchange for the number four pick in the draft. The price tag for such largesse likely would include not only the Vikings’ number seventeen selection in the draft, but also their two second-round selections. And that’s a price that the Vikings ought to deem prohibitive.

While obtaining an immediate starter at a position of need is a nice haul in the NFL draft, there is reason to believe that the Vikings—should they break from recent tradition—can accomplish what the successful organizations around the NFL routinely accomplish. Namely, the Vikings should be able to identify at least one bona fide NFL player in the second round.

The 2003 draft offers a gauge for this contention. Of the thirty-two players selected in the second round of the 2003 draft, twenty-seven remain in the league and twenty-four are with the team that drafted them. The numbers are even better for third-round selections with thirty of thirty-two players drafted still in the league and twenty-four with the team that drafted them.

What the numbers suggest, albeit from a small sample, is that even average personnel departments enjoy success drafting in the second round. Given the Vikings’ recent track record, this conclusion would appear to argue for the Vikings trading up in the draft. In fact, based on the Vikings’ recent draft history, the team probably would be better served trading away all of its picks for a couple of proven NFL starters.

Rather than dwell on their past draft failures, however, the Vikings need to focus on getting this draft and those from here forward correct. And that starts with maximizing utility. With a deep draft at linebacker, the Vikings should be able to select one or two quality linebackers in the first two rounds of the draft. That won’t include the likes of AJ Hawk, but it might include a player with the potential to be even better than Hawk, Chad Greenway.

Even if Greenway is gone, however, the Vikings probably will have an opportunity to select Ohio State’s Bobby Carpenter in round one and Abdul Hodge in round two if they opt to add quantity to their linebacking corps. And the Vikings certainly will have a host of very good football players from which to select at seventeen should they opt to draft the best available player, with players such as Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams, Nick Mangold likely still to be available.

The mandate for the Vikings’ front office in this year’s draft is not necessarily to move up or to take a particular player. Instead, the mandate is to make judicious decisions for a change. That means getting value whether through a trade or by standing pat. And when one considers the financial commitment that comes with taking a top-five player, having pick seventeen and two second-round picks in a reasonably deep draft might just make more sense for the Vikings in both the short and the long term.

Up Next: Pre-Pick Picks.

Other Stuff: from Mr. Cheer Or Die

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Posted by maasx003 at April 26, 2006 01:28 AM