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Views and Personal Photos on the Vikes from the Inaugural Hall of Fame fan.
Brought to you by Mr. Cheer or Die and the Vikes Geek, welcome to theAs successful NFL personnel people will attest, NFL games are won as much in the front office as on the field, for it is the successful front office that tends to correlate with the successful team. In the NFL, a successful front office is measured by three criteria—contract management, free-agent signees, and draftees.
With few meaningful contract issues this season, the Minnesota Vikings’ personnel people are most aptly judged in 2006 on the basis of their free-agent signings and their draft acumen. After a respectable free-agency period, whether the Vikings would keep pace with their division rivals came down to a question of how the Vikings did in the draft. And upon further review, the returns are as much disappointing as they are promising.
In yesterday’s column, I noted that one could argue that the Vikings had a respectable draft. After selecting a consensus starter in Chad Greenway in the first round, the Vikings proceeded to add two more players in the second round—Cedric Griffin and Ryan Cook—who potentially fill extant holes. But it is with these picks that questions begin to arise about the draft skills of the Vikings’ draft coterie—head coach Brad Childress and personnel men Scott Studwell and Fran Foley. For beginning with the Griffin pick, the Vikings tranformed from a team intent on optimizing their selections to a team bent on proving that counter-intuitiveness trumps conventional wisdom. And that transformation could be the difference between the Vikings merely keeping pace with their division and conference rivals and gaining an edge on those same adversaries through a draft in which the Vikings purportedly had a numbers edge.
The problem with the Vikings’ draft picks from the second round on is not necessarily who they drafted—though there are some clear concerns in that area—but what the team paid to get those players and whether the team optimized its selections. And no matter how one dissects the draft, it is clear that the Vikings’ personnel people made several gaffes once they moved from selecting, in round one, a consensus player at a position that they desperately needed to fill, to drafting in the murkier waters of the post-round one realm.
The Picks and the Prices
Having addressed their primary need at linebacker with the selection of Chad Greenway the Vikings next moved to address their need at cornerback. With Brian Williams gone the Vikings needed a corner capable both of starting at nickel back and pushing the enigmatic Fred Smoot. There were several comparable cornerbacks of reasonable quality still on the board when the Vikings selected at forty-eight. But rather than selecting the more highly regarded Ashton Youboty, the Vikings opted for Cedric Griffin. That Youboty lasted until the seventieth pick suggests that taking Griffin at forty-eight was an unnecessary reach.
As I’ve said many times in the past, a reach is only a reach if it adversely affects your bottom line. And Griffin’s selection at forty-eight affected the Vikings’ bottom line. For, had the Vikings not drafted Griffin at forty-eight, they still could have taken him at fifty or drafted any number of other comparable cornerbacks in round three. The reach on Griffin would be virtually meaningless, however, were it not for the Vikings’ desperation to select a quarterback in round two and the team’s subsequent comedy of errors made in an attempt to ensure that they landed a player that they could have landed without having to trade away a valuable third-round pick.
Purportedly, the Vikings had Oregon quarterback Kellen Clemens as their target in the second round. The Vikings erroneously assumed that Clemens would still be available when they next selected at fifty-one. When the N.Y. Jets swung a deal with the Dallas Cowboys to move into the number forty-nine position to take Clemens, the Vikings’ draft room imploded, with those who wanted to take Clemens at forty-eight at odds with those who did not.
The Vikings reacted to the Jets’ move by making two moves of their own. First, they inexplicably took center Ryan Cook with the fifty-first pick. Barring either a revelation that Matt Birk will not be ready to play at the beginning of the 2006 season or a determination to move Birk to right guard, a position that the Vikings purportedly filled with the trade for Artis Hicks, the move makes little sense as center is not a need for the Vikings. With several legitimate NFL players still on the board at positions of need for the Vikings, the selection of Cook—widely regarded as a round-five pick before the draft—therefore is mystifying.
Adding to the Vikings’ second-round intrigue was the Vikings’ trade of their two third-round picks, numbers eighty-three and ninety-five, to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the Steelers’ number sixty-four pick. With the sixty-fourth pick, the Vikings selected a major quarterback project, Alabama State quarterback Tarvaris Jackson.
To summarize the Vikings’ round two blunders, it is easiest to work backwards at this point. If the Vikings had wanted Clemens there was no excuse for not taking him with the forty-eighth pick. If that meant that another team snuck in between forty-eight and fifty-one to nab Griffin, so be it. There were many other viable cornerbacks still available—Youboty among them.
If the Vikings were content with obtaining Jackson, however, Griffin was a credible selection at forty-eight and the Vikings still could have had Jackson at fifty-one. And that would have left the Vikings with picks eighty-three and ninety-five—where they could have selected Cook or, if Cook was gone, another center such as the much more highly rated Greg Eslinger, or another player that filled a need.
Who would have been available to the Vikings in the third round? To name just a few, Rashad Butler, Maurice Stoval, Greg Eslinger, Dominique Byrd, Will Blackmon, Elvis Dumervil, and Mark Setterstrom. Even if the Vikings believed that these players were redundant or stretches, they were free additions—the price was merely proper management of selections in round two. That the Vikings failed properly to manage their selections in round two meant, at a minimum, that the team forfeited the opportunity to add at least one more third-round caliber player. That’s a peculiar luxury to afford oneself in an era in which third-round picks more often than not make the squad and stay with a team for at least three years.
Ultimately, what might be a decent draft for the Vikings on the basis of a solid first-round pick might as well be regarded as a highly disappointing pick for the loss of at least one pick in the third round without benefit of any meaningful return. And if the purported return is a bust, the second-round maneuvers in this year’s draft will look even more amateurish and could lead to a recall of personnel people.
Up Next: More Questions. Plus, remaining needs.
Posted by maasx003 at May 2, 2006 6:07 AMVG
"proving that counter-intuitiveness trumps conventional wisdom"
I think this is exactly what they were trying to do in the war room.
We wasted picks that is the bottom line. Even if the players we took pan out, we wasted picks to get them. That is an ultimate frustration. I agree with you it isn't so much who we took it is how we got them which is the ultimate blunder of this draft. There was still a lot of value in the third round.
--ajj90
Well I totally agree. But there is a learning curve, and the old regime never did learn. So hopefully they will do a after action review and figure out how to do it better next year. Yes there was some "wasted picks" but the damage was minimal. We actually got two starters day one with the trade of our 6th round pick. Which makes up for the bone head decisions in round 2-3.
Posted by: Lonnie at May 2, 2006 7:38 AMThat's a very good summary. The only way they didn't screw up on this draft is if both the following scenarios are correct:
1)Both Ryan Cook and Tarvaris Jackson would have gone much sooner than expected (both in the 2nd round or early 3rd round), so much sooner that the Vikes couldn't have gotten them if the held off
2)Both Ryan Cook and Tarvaris Jackson will be much better players in the NFL than comparable selections, and Griffen will have to do better than Youboty in the NFL as well
We'll never know if they would've gone sooner than expected, we'll have to trust that the Vikings had tips that they would've or thought they were so good they didn't want to risk it. And we'll have to wait a few years to see if they are better than comparable picks (Childress implied we'll have to wait up to 5 years for Jackson.) We'll hope they are better informed than the draft pundits. It's seemed they went strictly for the bigger, stronger, and faster guys figuring they can teach skills to them but they can't make skilled guys more athletic.
It's obvious they panicked somewhere, because as it's been pointed out they most likely could've picked Tarvaris in the 2nd round (with their 3rd pick) and Cook in the 3rd round (or vice versa) and had an extra 3rd pick. Heck they probably could've picked them both in the 3rd round and used their extra 2nd round pick on a top tier talent. Whether this panicking was good or not is up to speculation, rumor has it Studwell is furious.
Posted by: Jake at May 2, 2006 9:42 AMVikes Geek, excellent analysis and, as usual, very well written. With the facts available to us, it is very difficult to figure out any reasonable way to view the Cook pick as anything other than wasted. If they were hell bent on Jackson, they should have taken him with the Cook pick. Period. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the Griffin pick and I like the Jackson pick alot but they clearly lost a third round pick due to the way they managed things. I hope someday we learn something more about what it is that somebody must have seen in Cook that nobody else on the planet understands.
Keep up the great work COD and VG!
Posted by: Jake at May 2, 2006 12:38 PM"take Clemens, the Vikings’ draft room imploded, with those who wanted to take Clemens at forty-eight at odds with those who did not."
Please tell me you were in the draft room... otherwise you just look rediculous.
If these picks turn out to be solid NFL players, then I think alot of people should lose thier jobs, I.E Mel Kiper, or any other so called "expert". I think we did a great job of selecting players this past weekend, and Maurice Stovall?? are you joking? Please tell me you were.... Hank Baskett our URFA is much more sensable than paying a 5th or 6th string reciever. I know it's easy to sit here and make alot of statements about how the Vikings effed up the draft but, I'm certian you or me could not have done better then they did. I think you are just a name slut, well let me tell you something, Tom Brady wasn't a highly touted QB coming out of the draft, and look where he is.
One more general comment, I think the Vikes are in great shape overall so I am definitely not reading much doom and gloom into the fact that the Vikes pretty clearly lost a 3rd round pick to poor draft management. That is not the end of the world. I don't know the exact number but there's probably only a 50/50 shot whoever they missed out on would have played much anyway.
They got great players in free agency. They've completely beefed up the O-Line. The coaching staff AS A GROUP, at least on paper, is better than anything the Vikes have ever had as far as I can recall (possibly in hindsight the Green/Billick combo was up there as well).
I think the Vikes have likely improved by leaps and bounds over last year. Time will tell and there will probably be hiccups in the implementation of the new O and D schemes but there's a lot of legitimate talent out there on both sides of the ball. If you think back to what our D looked like a few years ago, it's a much better outlook today.
I can't wait for next season. I think the Vikes will be very competitive. To me, the biggest risk is Johnson getting hurt. I'd like to see them get someone other than McMahon behind Johnson before the season starts.
Posted by: Jake at May 2, 2006 12:48 PMReach. That seems to be the buzz word after this draft. Let me ask you draft geniuses this. Who should they have drafted with their 2nd round picks? Another higher ranked corner? Why would they draft two corners. You guys keep saying it's wasted pick. What if...God forbid, they wanted those players, they were available, and they took him. What's wrong with that logic? Should they have played around traded this pick here, moved that player there. Would that have made you happy? Ridiculous. They got who they wanted without games. I'm a fan, I'm happy with our draft. So there you go!
Posted by: VikesStud at May 2, 2006 1:24 PMYou previous posters are failing to realize the complaint that COD is wagering. It is not WHO we drafted...COD is saying nothing about how good the players are. It's merely WHEN we drafted them. We could have drafted the same exact players PLUS an extra 1 or even 2 3rd round picks. How can you say that giving up valuable 3rd round picks for basically nothing is justifiable? It doesn't matter how good these players turn out to be. If Griffin is the next Deion, Cook seemlessly replaces Birk, and Jackson breaks Peyton's touchdown record, we STILL would have been better off with these same exact players AND 1 or 2 more 3rd round prospects. Plain and simple.
Posted by: Brett at May 2, 2006 2:37 PMI love it when the draft shakes out differently than what everyone expects. This year is no different than other years. There is more hot air blown out before and after the draft then any other time of the year. Well, except maybe an election year.
If you were in the draft room, did player interviews, attended workouts and watched countless hours of video, then I'll respect your opinion. All other viewpoints are purely entertainment and should be taken that way.
I liked our choices. We went and got the players we wanted. Statements like "we didn't get value" or "this player was rated below that one" is bullshit. I understand, because anyone with a draft guide thinks they're an expert on draft day. It's that time of year, feel the breeze.
Posted by: pa viking at May 2, 2006 2:56 PMMost people don't know a good pick from a hole in the ground. Everyone is so damn dependant on Kiper and other draft "experts" to tell them who should go where. If a guy is drafted in a position that doesn't agree with a mock draft or a draft site, fans go NUTS!
Don't you guys realize that each NFL team rates all the players in the draft... WITHOUT looking at NFL draft websites??? It is VERY possible/probable that they will NOT have the same player rankings as the popular draft "experts."
Here's some fact. The 32 teams send scouts to games and practices to actually watch players. I HIGHLY doubt that these NFL draft websites are sending scouts to games and practices. I don't know what their sources are, but I'll bet they don't have scouting departments like NFL teams do.
People put so much stock in what draft sites say. Well, draft sites put Dwayne Robertson and Jonathan Sullivan AHEAD of Kevin Williams... and those 2 guys look like real busts right now. Tice and his staff obviously saw something in KWill that the draft boards missed, so please don't get upset if Kiper and co. don't LOVE our picks.
I mean honestly, ask yourself the following question.
"Are you hating certain picks b/c they don't coincide with mock drafts/draft "experts" or b/c you watched all the games/practices and you personally know that this guy isn't any good?"
Posted by: Mike at May 2, 2006 3:26 PMIn response to VikesStud et al, If you really think that Cook and Jackson were the players that they really wanted, why was there such a feeling of panic when the Jets took Clemens? In my opinion, it seemed like the only real plans that they had going into this was for the first round pick. It seemed like they were freestyling after that. Everyone knew that the Vikings wanted Kellen Clemens but for some reason, they didn't take him when they had the chance and they panicked. How else do you explain Tarvaris Jackson? He is a nobody who will be worse that Spurgeon Wynn and will be lucky to even make the practice squad.
This draft showed me that the proverbial "Three Headed Monster" concept is not going to work especially if that moron Studwell is in the mix. It just goes to show, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Good luck with that, Vikings fans.
Posted by: Irving at May 2, 2006 5:51 PMWhat really bothers me is this - The vikings would not give up a third round pick to move up to get Cutler but they'll happily give up and extra 3rd rounder for Jackson. I believe that Griffin was a solid second round pick for the Vikes but Cook was a reach. I mean who is he going to beat out? Whittle?? Who would you rather go to war with if Birk falters?- a rookie or a proven veteran? - this pick is a head scratcher. I just don't get it.
Posted by: Fraser M at May 2, 2006 6:44 PMJo,
What precisely is a "name slut?"
Tom Brady was a very well known commodity coming out of college. He just happened to slip down the board. What that has to do with the Vikings' failure to use their selections in a manner that ensured that they did not need to throw away a third-round pick is anyone's guess. I'd ask you to explain, but I suspect that you don't really have a clue.
VG
Posted by: vg at May 2, 2006 7:11 PMBrett,
Nice post. As you noted, this column has nothing to do with the ability of any player that the Vikings selected. It merely points out that the Vikings made mistakes that cost the team--at a minimum--one third-round pick. History suggests that third-round picks are valuable. That's bad draft management. And, yes, their was tension in the draft room over this very issue.
VikesStud, PA, and Mike, I suggest that you re-read the column. Each of you appears to have adopted a message that has nothing to do with the column. I'll do the same for your messages--thanks for the compliments!
VG
Posted by: vg at May 2, 2006 7:22 PMVG,
I understand your view. How can we know the value of certain picks in certain situations? Maybe a pair of threes were worth a Mr Jackson. Maybe they didn't like Clemens at #48. Maybe Cook was listed higher than you think on other team's draft boards? I can't and wont rely only on Kiper and his ilk.
Lighten up and wish Fran Foley good luck.
Posted by: pa viking at May 2, 2006 7:45 PMPA-
VG's comments had nothing to do with "Kiper and his ilk." It has to do with a third round pick. There is a lot of talent in the third round to be had and we wasted it for what seemed to be a brain trust break down in the war room. VG is obviously not attacking the people we picked and is certainly not alligning himself with "Kiper and his ilk," he is simply pondering the question of the overall cost of our draft day moves. If Cook and Jackson suck Foley, Childress, and or Robby B. might have to lose their job for the blunder. That was the jist of the article.
Trust me it is hard for me to find myself agreeing with VG on something but I think he is dead on with this column.
ajj
PA,
AJJ has laid it out as it is. If I truly were to reflect on "Kiper and his ilk," you'd probably discover that you and I differ little in our disdain.
AJJ, I'm glad you staid in the fold even if you hate my stuff 99.9% of the time, because when you agree it not only gives me a convert at least for a day, but it also makes it difficult for those in your camp to decide what to do--agree with VG, with whom they disagree nearly all the time, or with AJJ, with whom they agree nearly all the time, but who is supporting VG for the day. That's what keeps the site interesting.
Thanks for the note.
VG
Posted by: vg at May 3, 2006 12:14 AM