Super Bowl a Stock Market Indicator?

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Super Bowl a Stock Market Indicator?
It has been observed that of the past 41 Super Bowl games, 33 have successfully predicted how the stock market with perform over the following year.
How is this done?

If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins the super bowl, then the market is supposed to be a bear market. This is a general decline in stock prices across the market. However, if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins the super bowl, then the market is supposed to be a bull market, meaning high gains are expected.
This is a classic example of causation versus correlation mix-up. Instead of a popular football game actually affecting how the stock market performs, it is probably due to some third variable. This third variable could be such things as investor confidence or doubt, swings in the overall economy, and many other economic factors.
This myth can also be looked at through the extraordinary claims perspective. This says that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Supporters of myth try to answer this statement with facts. 33 of the last 41 super bowls were successfully predicted, including 28 out of 31 from 1967 to 1997. This correctly shows a correlation between the super bowl champion and the performance of the stock market, but it does not mean that it is the cause. Because this hypothesis can only be observed through naturalistic observation and cannot be manipulated in a laboratory, there is no way to prove a cause between the two factors.


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Do you think it is a real correlation though? Remember it is a 1 in 4 shot. Although it seems unlikely to be chance, lots of unlikely things happen all the time. How would economy fluctuations and investor confidence influence which conference wins the superbowl? My guess is that this is merely an illusory correlation and doesn't truly exist. Use the link function and include pictures.

Such indicators are wrong many times. It's much better to just follow some of the best hedge fund managers like: Felix Zulauf, Kyle Bass, Seth Klarman to know what will happen. For example the stock markets have been rising for quite sometime, but soon will face a huge correction according to Felix Zulauf:

We will see if he gets it right again as all of his previous bets have been right.

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This page contains a single entry by hans4300 published on October 24, 2011 6:46 PM.

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