Super Bowl a Stock Market Indicator?
It has been observed that of the past 41 Super Bowl games, 33 have successfully predicted how the stock market with perform over the following year.
How is this done?
If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins the super bowl, then the market is supposed to be a bear market. This is a general decline in stock prices across the market. However, if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins the super bowl, then the market is supposed to be a bull market, meaning high gains are expected.
This is a classic example of causation versus correlation mix-up. Instead of a popular football game actually affecting how the stock market performs, it is probably due to some third variable. This third variable could be such things as investor confidence or doubt, swings in the overall economy, and many other economic factors.
This myth can also be looked at through the extraordinary claims perspective. This says that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Supporters of myth try to answer this statement with facts. 33 of the last 41 super bowls were successfully predicted, including 28 out of 31 from 1967 to 1997. This correctly shows a correlation between the super bowl champion and the performance of the stock market, but it does not mean that it is the cause. Because this hypothesis can only be observed through naturalistic observation and cannot be manipulated in a laboratory, there is no way to prove a cause between the two factors.