Hindsight Bias is common

user-pic
Vote 0 Votes

hindsight.jpg

When a test is over and the answer is posted online, I always heard my classmates complain like that "I knew it! The answer of that question should be B!" or "I knew professor will choose that question from chapter 5, I should review it!" and I also heard many claims like those above. That's all hindsight bias. And I think if we surface on the internet and see people's facebook, twitter or blog, we will find this phenomenon is widely common.

Hindsight bias is one concept I consider is important. Hindsight bias, or so-called know-it-all-along effect, in my words, is the propensity to judge things have already happened as being more likely than the time when this event didn't occur. It's one of our human cognitive biases that can lead us to get misleading conclusions. Because we all human beings, we can find this biases, but we can't totally prevent it naturally.

The reason I believe this conception is that I find it can apply most of my friends' everyday life. For example, when my friends and I watch a basketball game, before the start of the game, we always like to guess which team will be the winner. If they are right, they will so confident that it can not have more evident that why the team they choose is over the other. Or they lose the guessing game, they will not mention this again.

On the other hand, I suppose sometimes we can benefit from hindsight bias. When one events occur, though it is easy to predict, we will think of the whole things and analyze the flaw in order to prevent the same thing from happening again.

But I wonder is there someone in the world doesn't have hindsight bias and what kind of people he or she will be?

1 Comment

| Leave a comment

Interesting question. I wonder what it would be like without any hindsight bias... I love the comic.

Leave a comment

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by zhao0452 published on September 28, 2011 11:53 PM.

Writing assignment 1 was the previous entry in this blog.

Cell Phones Cause Cancer is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.