November 14, 2013

GENMOD vs. other procs


In simple linear models, PROC GENMOD gives different coefficient standard errors, and also seems to be working with different degrees of freedom than other procs. This may be due to use/non-use of maximum likelihood or 'bias correction'.

Results from a class data set:





































Model Estimate SE Test stat Pr>|test stat|
REG -9.34937 6.05465 -1.54 0.1375
GENMOD -9.3494 5.7854 X^2=2.61 0.1061
MIXED -9.3494 6.0547 -1.54 0.1375
GLM -9.3493685 6.05465219 -1.54 0.1375

October 7, 2013

Catching up

Oct 6 - TC marathon
Oct 5 - Club boat pull, Julie's pasta party
Oct 4 - Soap Factory Haunted basement
Oct 3 - Murder at the Museum with the Whodunnits
Oct 2 - Sailing with Sarah
Oct 1 - Sailing with the club, dinner at the Red Cow
Sep 30 - Sailing solo
Sep 29 - Sailing with Jean
Sep 28 - pulled 3 boats
Sep 27 - Friday night at home, doing nothing
Sep 26 - Skipped tango, burned out
Sep 25 - Sea Salt with Erin
Sep 24 - Sailing with the club, dinner at the Lowbrow
Sep 23
Sep 22 - St. Paul farmers' market with Erin
Sep 21 - Walked Keely to tennis/King's Fair, Whodunnit at Hilary's until midnight
Sep 20 - Friday night at home, doing nothing? Or tried to swim Harriet, but got frozen out. That led to an interesting talk with Sarah
Sep 19 - Tango
Sep 18 - Tried to swim Harriet, but got frozen out.
Sep 18 - "Nicollet Island" at the Riverview
Sep 17 - Most of the club chickened out due to high winds and cold rain. Three boats went out.
Sep 15 - Walk and talk with Sarah
Sep 13 - Birthday party with too many people.

September 9, 2013

XX Nokomis

Exercise - Core 22, partial arm 22, swam
Errand - None
Fun - Swam Nokomis

September 8, 2013

Blahg

Exercise: None, yet.
Errand: None, yet
Fun: Dinner with Erika and Abby

I took Keely to the dog park where she got over her fear of large bubbles. Then I wasted my Sunday on-line. Then I took her back to Judith's to pull out a baby bunny again. Now they have fur, so I think it was probably okay when I put it back. Boy, they can cause a racket.

September 7, 2013

70th Birthday

Exercise: Ran Keely to the river and back
Errand: None?
Fun: Summit Ave walking tour and WAFrost with the family

I went down to Harriet to help out with a capsize drill. We had to row out, the wind was so light. Then I sailed with Laura(?). It was quiet and kind of awkward at first, but she works in environmental policy for the state and we eventually got quite a conversation going. I stayed out longer than expected. The Summit tour was neat. There are side streets and alleys there that I'd like to bike through.

September 5, 2013

Blahg

Exercise: Core 22, leg 22 (Finally)
Errand: Signed up to skipper on the OSS
Fun: Walked Keely over to Jean's for dinner with all the aunts and uncles

August 30, 2013

TGIF

Exercise: Core 21,
Errands: CSA, life jackets, massage appt,
Fun:

August 28, 2013

Blahg

Exercise - Core 20, arm 20
Errand - Groceries
Fun - None

It seems like all I do is walk the dog, go to work, come home, walk the dog, run around for some errand or activity, make dinner, walk the dog, go to bed. I don't know how it uses up the whole evening, especially if I leave work early and don't make it to teh river and stay up late. Part of it may be the heat sapping my energy.

August 27, 2013

Skip to my Lou

Errand: Farmer's market
Exercise: Core 19
Fun: Skippered out

Christy brought her son's horshoeing friend's daughter Helen to club night. I needed to skipper for a day, so I was skippering with them. Helen had taught sailing a few years back, so she pretty much knew what she was doing. She seemed familiar, and then I discovered that she ran UTango and I met her last spring. She is thinking of spending the next year in Buenos Aires tangoing.

Winds were gentle and we cruised around the lake talking for a few hours with Helen at the tiller. Then I aced the exam and became a skipper.

August 26, 2013

Picnics are no day at the beach

Exercise - core @ 18, swam 4 lengths at Nokomis
Errand - Getting stuff for picnic
Fun - PhD student picnic and swimming

We chose to have our PhD student picnic on a day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90's.
Leave work after 3
Walk dog briefly until 4
Race to grocery store for corn, another watermelon, and ice for lemonade
Grab the dog and race to Minnehaha Falls
Take Keely into the creek, then wait around for a few minutes
Start setting up with Hilary and Jessica and Jennifer
Remember I don't have a knife for cutting the watermelon, our grilling tools are insufficient, and paper plates are missing. Hillary says we need more ice.
Race home with Keely to get these things, check my answering machine but there are no messages asking for more things.
Race to the liquor store. Liquor store clerk asks me "What do you need, Honey?" She looks like she might be 30 - isn't honey for people younger than you? Get 36 pounds more ice.
Zip into the parking lot. Hilary is not there - she left the veggie patties in the freezer at WBOB. Coals are coming along nicely. People have arrived. I cut the watermelon.
The first batch of Kielbasa is done and I am selected to announce that.
Announcement 1: Food is ready.
Hilary shows up with the veggie patties. Gas grill runs out of gas. Full size paper plates run out. Coals start to cool down. There is no more lighter fluid. Everyone gets food. Discover the paper plates on a different table.
Discover I am not good at MCing events.
Announcement 2: Welcome people.
Everyone is served. No one remembers to put the corn on.
Announcement 3: Thank the hostesses, pass around the diagnosis cards and start the outbreak investigation.
Announcement 4: Tell those new to the area to check out Minnehaha Falls.
7 PM my alarm goes off. Start trying to extricate myself and gather my things.
Leave at 7:30 and race home to change into swim trunks and ditch Keely.
Race over to Nokomis to meet Sarah at 8:01. Go from totally stressed out by the picnic to joyfully calm at swimming.
Call Julie, who left an upset message. She had a hard day teaching.

August 23, 2013

Baseline-adjusted change score

This is generally a bad idea

Y1-Yo = B1 + B2X + B3Yo

Why might you do this?

When can it bias results? See Glymour at al 2005.


  • Regression to the mean:

  • Horse racing:

Note that if the predictor is instrumental (randomly assigned) then I believe the biases mentioned by Glymour et al will not apply.

Change vs. Baseline-adjusted

Y1 = B1 + B2X + B3Yo is baseline adjusted model
Y1-Yo = B1 + B2X is change model according to PH?
Y1-B3Yo = B1 + B2X is change model according to JW?

If change is the concept of interest then it is convenient to use change. Does forcing B3=1 make sense? It will add precision.

In a very simple model using Box Lunch data I found that baseline-adjusted and baseline-adjusted change models gave identical results.

August 22, 2013

Monthly dinner

Errand - Grocery shopping
Exercise - arms (16), ran to and from the river
Fun - Monthly dinner

I haven't had a really good night of sleep in a week, so I was worn out. Not much fun.

August 21, 2013

I scream

Errand:
Exercise: None
Fun: Block club ice cream social at Louis and Andrew's

More than a dozen people showed up for the social. We got to peak in the VW camper van, which is in great shape.

I took two classes from HR: Communications skills for managers and informal feedback. Apparently the business and HR worlds now call people "direct reports". I guess that's better than underlings or minions, but I don't like it. Here are some thoughts from communications:



  • We start listening, then speak, then read and lastly write. But we have minimal formal instruction in listening, and only some in speaking.

  • Listening is a key trait of being liked

  • Tell people you are working on a skill so they can give you feedback

  • I should try listening and taking notes in meetings instead of evaluating ideas

  • I should try asking Jacob open-ended questions to get more info.


Some thoughts from feedback

  • I should ask Jacob how he wants feedback - public/private, written/oral, etc

  • Many millenials don't know what the role of a manager is and need to be told that it involves feedback

  • Formal (annual) evaluations should be themes from informal feedback throughout the year

  • Jacob and I don't know if we set any goals at his last evaluation!


August 20, 2013

The girl who sniffed the hornets' nest


Exercise
Errand
Fun

Heading down the hill under the Lake Street bridge Keely ran off into the brush. I heard some weird shakes of her head, and I thought she was sneezing. I called her over to see what was going on and saw a half dozen bees on her head, including one in her ear. I paused to think what to do, then decided I needed to get them off. How do you kill bees that are on your dog? I slapped one off and started brushing the others, but they were clinging tight. Then one stung my calf, so I told her "Go, go, go!" and we took off running down the trail. I guess my hamstring is ready for a brisk run now. We ran on until we reached a spot I could grab rocks and throw them in the water, out by the beaver's nest. She enjoyed that, but when I stopped throwing she came up limping, holding a foreleg in the air. It must have hurt, because she let me hold it and leaned against me. After a minute there I heard a buzzing, and we took off again for the beach. There I threw rocks for her in the shallow zone, and then we drove home.