Republican base too narrow?

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The day after the election, one of my political science professors said that Romney lost because the "U.S. electorate just is not white enough anymore." I immediately thought of a blog entry by Nate Silver in late August, where he basically argued the same thing. The post can be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/30/base-turnout-strategy-may-be-too-narrow-for-romney/
In the article, Nate Silver uses voter turnout rates from 2004 and 2008 to support his argument that Romney's strategy to focus on turning out his base would not work. He goes on to compare Romney's likability among Hispanic voters to Bush's likability. Given Romney's history and stance on issues such as immigration, Silver predicted that he would not capture a sufficient number of Hispanic votes.
Chapter 11 of our book discusses why there is a racial distortion in voting. "It is remarkable that blacks and whites participate at virtually the same rates overall even though African Americans are typically less educated and have lower incomes than whites. Part of the explanation for black electoral activism is mobilization that occurs in black churches. Another part of the explanation is idiosyncratic to 2008: blacks were more excited than whites about Barack Obama's candidacy," (Campaigns & Elections 334). The book goes on to explain that voting rates among Latino and Hispanic voters are low due to lower levels of education, lower incomes, struggles with the English language, and growing up in countries that do not celebrate political participation.
So I am excited to see where the Republican Party takes things in the next few months. I am anticipating some major shifts in issue focus and a shift towards more moderate issues stances.

2 Comments

It will definitely be interesting to see what the GOP decides to do with this information. I agree that they may shift moderate, but there is another great possibility. I think the Republican Party will stay where its platform already lies and only alter a few issue positions. Every minority group (whether racial, religious, etc.) has a few issues where most members hold "extreme" views. I think that the Republicans may try to narrowcast and take the more extreme members that lead a minority group.

I am also interested to see what the Republicans will do in the next couple years before the next elections. I believe that Republicans do need to change their views to be a bit more moderate. In doing so, maybe the Republicans won't have to win over as many swing states or make it at least easier for them to compete. I also think that they probably won't shift the base of what they stand for but rather shift on some key issues slightly.

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This page contains a single entry by prono003 published on November 9, 2012 1:57 PM.

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