July 24, 2006

Avoidance strategy

Last week's Minnesota Poll in the Star Tribune revealed something a little odd, but nevertheless predictable (and predicted): Tim Pawlenty is slightly ahead of Mike Hatch in the governor's race, and Amy Klobuchar has a big, big lead in the Senate race. Who are those Pawlenty-Klobuchar voters? My guess is they are largely found in the western and southern suburbs of the Twin Cities, where voters are familiar with Klobuchar from her role as Hennepin County attorney, less familiar with Mark Kennedy, and well-disposed towards our archetypically suburban governor, Tim Pawlenty.

So, I would like to reprise my campaign prediction from 2 months ago. The dynamic between the Senatorial and gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota is going to be interesting. Look for Tim Pawlenty to steer well clear of Mark Kennedy during the campaign, but look also for Mike Hatch to try and tag along with Amy Klobuchar. Although Pawlenty was slightly ahead of Hatch, there were two warning signs for the incumbent. Hatch had lower name recognition and higher favorability ratings, yet was still only just behind. If I had more time for this kind of thing I'd keep a running tally of joint campaign appearances by the top-of-the-ticket candidates ...

Posted by eroberts at July 24, 2006 6:41 AM