The over-the-Thanksgiving-weekend announcement from the World Health Organization about the potential for an avian flu pandemic is distressing. One WHO regional director (Dr. Shigeru Omi) said yesterday that a pandemic of avian flu could kill 50 million worldwide and as many as 100 million in a worst case scenario.
WHO officials in Geneva later said they did not know what research Omi used to arrive at his estimate, nor did they know why he believed a pandemic is likely. The NY Times quoted WHO spokesperson Dick Thompson: "WHO is trying to raise concern because we're concerned, but WHO is not trying to scare the planet."
Well guess what just may have happened to anyone following the story?
Klaus Stohr, WHO's influenza expert, told the Times, "The numbers [estimating deaths from avian flu] are all over the place." He added that Omi's estimate is "unscientific, unjustified and an inaccurate extrapolation from the current situation."
Journalists are often blamed for sensationalism and for failing to give proper context. This WHO adventure shouts out the need for better coordination, context and communication from anyone representing the international public health agency.
CORRECTION -- December 2: Dr. Stohr did not say that Shigeru Omi's estimate was "unscientific, unjustified and an inaccurate extrapolation from the current situation." He said that about an estimate attributed to Henry L. Niman, a Pittsburgh researcher. The Times wrote that Niman said "the death toll could in theory exceed a billion people if the disease were to spread rapidly among people with little if any reduction in current mortality rates." I apologize for linking Stohr's criticism to the wrong person.