A recent New York Times column addressed innumeracy - "the arithmetic equivalent of illiteracy." The columnist asked, "Why do so many people have trouble with the notion of probability and chance? ... Simply put, people are uncomfortable with mathematical concepts like probability because they never learned them in the first place. Innumeracy explains much of the public's confusion about the risks of various drugs and medical treatments."
Innumeracy is fed by even some respected conduits of health information, such as the Journal of the American Medical Association, which sent out a video news release last week headlined, “IN BREAST CANCER PATIENTS, WALKING 3-5 HOURS PER WEEK MAY REDUCE RISK OF DEATH FROM BREAST CANCER BY UP TO 50 %." But 50% of what absolute risk? Did 2 in 10,000 become 1 in 10,000?
That kind of incomplete math doesn't help. JAMA should do better.
Posted by schwitz at May 23, 2005 07:56 AM | TrackBack