In A Study of History, Toynbee tries to explain why great civilizations "stumble and fail in mid-career." What he says is remarkable: great civilizations fail because of problems in the way they appropriate and replicate the virtues and values of their leaders and heroes. The point is of quite general application, and it suggests a task that demands the combined talents of historians and moral philosophers. Indeed, Toynbee suggests that the serious moral philosopher must be a kind of historian, if he or she is to make a contribution to the maintenance of his or her civilization.
"Growth is the work of creative personalities and creative minorities; they cannot go on moving forward themselves unless they can contrive to carry their fellows with them in their advance; and the uncreative rank and file of mankind, which is always the overwhelming majority, cannot be transfigured en masse and raised to the stature of their leaders in the twinkling of an eye. That would be in practice impossible; for the inward spiritual grace through which the unillumined soul is fired by communion with the saint is almost as rare as the miracle that has brought the saint himself into the world. The leader’s task is to make his fellows his followers; and the only means by which mankind in the mass can be set in motion towards a goal beyond itself is by enlisting the primitive and universal faculty of mimesis. For this mimesis is a kind of social drill; and the dull ears that are deaf to the unearthly music of Orpheus’ lyre are well attuned to the drill sergeant’s word of command. When the Piper of Hamelin assumes King Frederick William’s Prussian voice, the rank and file, who have stood stolid hitherto, mechanically break into movement, and the evolution which he causes them to execute brings them duly to heel; but they can only catch him up by taking a short cut, and they can only find room to march in formation by deploying on the broad way which leadeth to destruction. When the road to destruction has perforce to be trodden on the quest of life, it is perhaps no wonder that the quest should often end in disaster.
Moreover, there is as weakness in the actual exercise of mimesis, quite apart from the way in which the faculty may be exploited. For, just because mimesis is a kind of drill, it is a kind of mechanization of human life and movement." (276)