Philosophy

Causal oddities

It's election time and, like lots of people, I have my strong preferences. I am going to vote. And yet I have no settled opinion about which candidate is likelier to be good for the world, long term. And that is because the causal mechanisms are so twisty. Actions in public can bring about the exact opposite of their intended consequence. Consider, for example, a progressive critique of Bush: 'his pursuit of terrorists is inept, the war in Iraq will wreck American credibility in the Arab world, tie down U.S. military at a time when they need flexibility, and define America for the rest of the world as a rogue nation that has to be controlled. His domestic policies will doom any hope of government fixes for social security, health insurance, or the environment. His tax policies instituionalize the gap between rich and poor.' Now, suppose we elect a candidate, say, Ron Merry, who will do just the opposite of all this: 'he will pursue terrorists with vigor and intelligence, restore flexibility and effectiveness to the U.S. military, get the rest of the world to trust us again. His domestic policies will restore hope that government can save social security, provide universal health care at affordable prices, close the ozone hole, and reconcile the wealthy and the poor.' We know that, if Ron wins, he will win by a narrow margin; the polls have spoken. So something just a bit less than a majority is waiting in the wings, hoping that he fails. In four years, they will quite likely come to power; one cannot turn the country around in 3 years without making some embarrassing, politically dangerous mistakes. The new President, Marge Mush, will come into office facing terrorists who have been trained to act intelligently. She will have at her disposal a really useful military and a good bit of diplomatic power. And people will have come to trust government to address the big problems facing the United States, humankind, and the entire living world.

An ethics experiment: take any advocate for any change whatever. Give him or her a little plastic push-button and say, "Describe the change you want made as completely as you can. Now, suppose that, by pushing this button, you could bring that change about, instantly." See whether the advocate pushes the button.