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Wetterling gets support from big IP donors

While researching Patty Wetterling's campaign recepits, I noticed something that I think is significant. Two of the biggest donors to the Independence Party of Minnesota have also given money to Patty Wetterling's campaign.

Julia W. Dayton (I can't confirm this, but it's probable she's connected to, or married into, the family of Sen. Mark Dayton) gave $5,000 to the IP, and has given $4200 in this cycle (for Patty's Senate and House campaigns) and $4000 in the '04 cycle to Wetterling.

Michael D. Goldner, a $1,000 contributor to the IP, gave a total of $800 to Wetterling in the '04 cycle.

Since John Binkowski, the IP candidate in the Sixth, does not list his individual contributors on his FEC filing (I'm not sure why... perhaps the donations were all very small, or since he declared his candidacy more recently he is not required to file that information), it is impossible to say whether these IP backers will switch to Binkowski. But it seems that Wetterling, through her moderate, common-sense policies and values, is reaching out to independent donors (and, by extension, independent voters.)


That is interesting data.

It is hard chasing all the cross-ties. It would be total black if we did not have FEC.

With Binkowski there are two questions: First, the Ralph Nader factor - will he divert more votes from, say, Wetterling, and hence help the Bachmann candidacy; or vice versa?

Second- When will there be independent District polls?

Binkowski is hurt most by a lack of published polls and trends. With the GOP and DFL candidates probably front runners, any Ventura effect, catching up from third; is hard to trend.

Pat, I thought to try to look at Bachmann donors, the non-retired and non-home spouse, and their business ties; and the bills Bachmann sponsored.

It was frustrating. Largely unproductive. Speculative. You find Bachmann and GOP co-donors. That suggests no bill-donation link, but rather party preference.

It is guess-work, and you can report the raw data; but inferences largely are for the reader.

I know FEC has some database downloading and porting available; so keeping that current and doing datamining is possible.

Do you know any database guru doing that or thinking of it? Political consultants may be doing that.

Eric, I'm sorry to say that I have no contacts at the FEC, the CFB, the CIA, or anywhere else. I'm really not very "connected" or "plugged-in" to the political establishment. Google and Bloglines are my best sources, along with readers of this blog. Anything you can't find on Google... well... chances are I don't know it.

Binkowski has no chance with or without polls. Voters will recognize that he is running for his resume, so to speak--as are a lot of third-party candidates. I think he will hurt Wetterling if he hurts anyone-- a lot of his positions are extremely liberal, much more so than Patty. He'll pull votes from Greens, contrarians, and the left of the DFL (though not too much-- I think that the more liberal activists are the ones that won the endorsement for Patty.) Binkowski--Same view on Iraq (from what I can tell); critical of Israel's bombing of Lebanon where Wetterling has not been; critical of farm subsidies and the like. Perhaps Patty can use that in a debate if Bachmann calls her a "liberal"--she can point to Binkowski, supposedly the "moderate" candidate, and show that he is much more liberal than she is.

My hope, though, is that he will run out of money and just drop out, endorsing Wetterling.