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A Bachmann victory spells doom for the Independence Party?

That's the thesis of a new piece up at The Bachmann Record. Excerpts:

Voters who want to protect the future of Minnesota’s Independence Party should do everything they can to make sure that Michele Bachmann is not elected to Congress.

Here’s why: if Michele Bachmann is elected to Congress this fall, she can keep that seat as long as she wants to, and the Independence Party is through as a political force in the 6th District—and possibly in other districts as well.

If Patty Wetterling wins this year and performs poorly in Congress during the next two years, she will not be re-elected. The support she would enjoy in Republican-trending 6th District would be inherently weaker than the support that Bachmann would enjoy. Wetterling would be vulnerable in the next election two years from now, because the number of people in the 6th District that would constitute her “liberal base? is comparatively small. If Wetterling wins, the Independence Party stays alive in the 6th District and gets another chance to influence policy there over the next two years and to play “kingmaker? at the next election.

[...]

If an IP candidate inadvertently helps Bachmann get into office (by shaving Wetterling vote totals) they are actually diminishing their own influence in the district—since Bachmann is a special-interest politician who will pay them no heed and since her political position, once elected, will be virtually unassailable.

Seems like a sound theory to me. You can't argue with the fact that Michele Bachmann would be much more formidable as an incumbent, barring any catastrophic gaffes (and you never know with Michele!), than would Patty Wetterling. We might have a chance to defeat her in '08; after that it seems like it would be smooth sailing, should Bachmann choose to keep her seat.

Conventional wisdom is that the Sixth is fertile ground for the Independence Party and independent candidates in general, based on strong vote totals for Jesse Ventura in the Sixth in 1998.

Since The Bachmann Record is not a blog, feel free to use this space as a discussion thread.

Comments

One problem with such speculation - it is the 2006 cycle to worry over, not wait-until-next-year before people have voted. And there is a bothersome bias to any "... Patty Wetterling gets elected and performs poorly ..." presumptions because she still is the one of the three that seems deep and not superficial; and she really resonates the "used car" litmus test with me - I surely would most trust buying a used car from Patty Wetterling than either of the other two.

It is a personal feeling, but how it is.

And Bruce Vento was not the most polished spieler when he first went to DC, but he always was sharp. It seems the same with Wetterling. Of the three, she is the one I would take an hour to talk to, with the expectation I would hear some good ideas and interesting thoughts.

And you know Patty would give you an hour. Bachmann wouldn't even return your phone call or e-mail, let alone invite you into her lair. That truly is one of her biggest offenses as an officeholder--she simply ignores anyone who disagrees with her. We have no representation in the state senate, and we would have no representation in the United States Congress if she's elected. That's the primary reason--more than any of the many issues upon which I disagree with her--that motivates me to end her political career. It's the same with George Bush. We simply don't exist in their eyes and I'm f'en sick of it.