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May 18, 2005
Divine intervention
OK, remember how I said now was not the time for pessimism? That now is the time for action? Well, unfortunately, get ready for some pessimism. Oh boy, the breakdown of the Taxes committee does not look good. Not good at all. Unless Sviggum has something up his sleeve, the Twins ballpark bill will not escape this committee without a referendum attached, and it may not even escape this committee at all. Check this out (with the person's likely vote at the end):
That is 13 votes for the bill, and 15 votes against. You'll recall that in the Local Government committee a referendum amendment was narrowly defeated 10-9 even though the bill itself was passed with a 12-7 vote. So, even if this bill can squeak by the Taxes committee, I just can't see it getting by without a referendum attached. I hope I'm wrong, I pray I'm wrong, but this just does not look good Twins fans.
Now for some optimism. Many of my predictions are based on 10 years of stadium debate. While it is unlikely, it is possible that many of the legislators that have expressed anti-stadium rhetoric in the past are now in favor of this plan. This is certainly true of Nora Slawik who is not a member of Taxes, but is a legislator who has been anti-stadium and is now pro-stadium. So, of course, let's keep our fingers crossed.
However, and now for some more pessimism, while I have Anderson, Bernardy, and Vandeveer in the "Yes" column, I would not be suprised at all if they came out against this bill. Truthfully, all three of these legislators are a "yes/no" at best. I know, how depressing.
That leaves us with the question of what can we do? What can we do at this point to help this bill pass? Sadly, I'm not sure. I've watched two hearings now, and the same arguments for and against were bandied back and forth in both ad naseum. Legislators on both sides of the issue expressed disgust with the nit-picking, delay tactics, and grandstanding displayed at the hearings. However, regardless of all of this debate, the hours of arguing, I'm not sure a single legislator actually changed his or her mind on how he/she was going to vote before the committee even started. We've been at this 10 years. At this point, it almost seems that all of this pomp and circumstance is a huge waste of time. The legislators know how they are going to vote and all these hours of arguing isn't going to change their minds. Am I wrong or am I right?
Legislators for the bill recognize the value of the Twins can't be measured purely in dollars and cents and they want this problem solved. Legislators against the bill think Pohlad should be contributing more, or that Hennepin County shouldn't be footing the entire bill for a statewide asset. Most legislators, I would think, have already chosen a side. Does this mean I'm not going to write all these legislators (again) and tell them what I think? No, I'm still going to write, and I encourage you to do so also, but it almost seems that we are watching a play where the script has already been written. At this point we are just waiting for the end.
OK, what if the Taxes committee actually has the votes to pass the bill, but not without a referendum? In that case, we have to count on the Senate to pass the companion bill without a referendum. When the two bills meet up in conference committee Sviggum would hopefully fill the House committee with pro-stadium legislators, the referendum would be stripped off, and the bill would go back to both chambers for another vote.
What if the bill just doesn't pass the Taxes committee? Can Sviggum resurrect the bill on the House floor even without the backing of the Taxes committee? I'm not sure. I think so, but I just don't know for certain. Can anyone shed some light on this? I'm of the opinion the House floor can decide to vote on anything they want, but that this is an unlikely scenario.
And of course, a special session is a unique animal in itself. I have no idea what the protocol is in a special session, but I would think, again, that this bill could be resurrected there if necessary. Truthfully, it seems we are in for a long, painful few weeks.
In conclusion, I think this bill has enough behind it to pass a House floor vote. I do not think it has the votes, though, to get out of the Taxes committee. I'm going to do a little more research on that and hopefully I'll be back with some better news. Until later...
Posted by snackeru at May 18, 2005 08:37 AM | Stadiums | TrackBack popup
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Comments
Shane, you need a stadium revival service and I feel the spirit movin' me...
You repeat everything out loud that is in BOLD. Don't care if you are in your cube.
Do you believe that a new stadium will be built?
I BELIEVE THAT A NEW STADIUM WILL BE BUILT
Do you believe that you will be at a Twins home game outside someday in the Twin Cities?
I BELIEVE IN THE FRESH AIR OF AN OUTDOOR STADIUM
Can you feel it? Can you feel the power of the stadium financing bill?
I FEEL THE POWER OF THE BILL
Now clap your hands!
pause pause
Keep on clapping... We rollin' now...
Say I believe... I BELIEVE!
Say I believe... I BELIEVE!
One more time... I BELIEVE!
Get up out your seat and dance! Dance! Shake those negative stadium blues off yourself!
You are a new man! A healed man! Whooooo! Whooooo!
Posted by: Cheesehead Craig at May 18, 2005 12:24 PM
Sviggum just needs to filibuster. All he needs to do is show up, get control of the floor and then start to read the Sid Hartman autobiography. He'll crack these opponents like so many bad walnuts. After one chapter read aloud from Sid's book these people will cave in and provide 100% of the funding for the Twins, Vikes, and Gophers stadium and offer to help build it themselves!
Posted by: Brian Maas at May 18, 2005 01:29 PM
I hate to say this, but things may not be as bleak as they seem.
I'm looking through the state government website (http://www.leg.state.mn.us/leg/howbill.asp), and though I can't find the specific rules involved, it does seem that some bills have come up on the floor of the Legislature even after being voted down in committee. Making the analysis more complicated is that Taxes and Ways and Means are committees that don't always use the same rules as 'lesser' committees. Ultimately it goes back to the state Constitution and the rules developed to ensure that all bills are treated in a constitutional manner. (Which really doesn't fill me with confidence, given that if the bill runs afoul of a constitutional question, then suddenly we have the state Supreme Court involved in the process as well...)
I'd probably have to talk to a legislator to get the full skinny, but from what I've been able to gather thus far, if stadium opponents want to finish off this bill in Taxes, they'd best be sure to amend it to include a referendum before they kill it. That such a thing sounds stupid even to me makes me think I'm on the wrong track, but we'll see.
Posted by: David Wintheiser at May 18, 2005 01:58 PM
I just wrote and sent my one and only heartfelt Stadium-Yes email to members of the committee. I'm already more emotionally invested in this than is warranted, I think.
Posted by: ss at May 18, 2005 07:30 PM
Thanks ss. I appreciate it. And you are right, there is too much emotion in this already. I probably need to take a step back.
Posted by: Shane at May 18, 2005 09:38 PM
