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University of Minnesota and the School of Public Health

Student SPHere 2008-09

« Dinah is Stressing! | Student SPHere Home | Fun times... »

November 6, 2008

Laura Hatfield

Excitement

By Laura Hatfield
Biostatistics

This election season has been the most intense of my life. Much of the reason is my personal level of interest, but I'm also laying some blame at the feet of modern communication infrastructure. There was a day when you might have to read a few newspaper columns or wait for a candidate's whistlestop tour to visit your town, but today an average citizen is awash in the election for 21 long months. In my personal life, I have practically no exposure to TV or radio ads, but I *love* sites like fivethirtyeight.com, intrade.com, 270towin.com, and of course, Gelman's blog.

The amount of data surrounding an election is tremendous, and the possibilities for longitudinal analysis, predictions, regressions, etc. etc. are endless. The prediction aspect was particularly prominent this year, as Nick Silver found himself helming the preeminent poll analysis site. His approach is Bayesian-flavored, so I have special love for his simulations. So that was my statistical take on the election-- tons of data.

My personal take was relatively blasé until this week. Then on Monday, I suddenly found myself bouncing around like a hyperactive tot on holiday eve, excited to get to bed so that the morning would come faster and I could rocket out of bed and into the voting line. Tom and I were in line by 6:45 and I ended up being the 83rd voter in my precinct. It was a tremendous feeling seeing all my neighbors out with their kids and pets and coffee cups, shuffling along the side of the Whittier Community Center in the wee hours. Rarely am I moved to anything close to nationalism, but I certainly felt a swell of civic pride that morning. The day was a blur of endless blog reading, stat checking, nail biting, and generally failing to get work done.

That night, we gathered with friends for a results-watching party, all of us mentally adding up the electoral votes not only to determine the election, but also to see how we were doing in the betting pools. :) In the end, I didn't give a hoot about my pool guesses, because when Obama gave his acceptance speech, there were tears in my eyes and renewed energy in my heart. It's been a long time since I felt good about this country's leadership. It is a strange feeling, but I am so optimistic about the future, and the potential for President Obama to undo some of the damage in this country.

Coming into class the next morning, I was unable to share much of my enthusiasm with my classmates or professors, all of whom are citizens of other countries. They were interested in the outcome, but it was a stark contrast to the obsessiveness with which my other friends have been following politics this past year.

Halloween

Ok, enough of the politics. The other fun event was Halloween. Actually.... there's still more politics, because Tom and I both dressed as political stereotypes this year: Joe Six-pack and a Hockey Mom. And given our set of friends, we weren't the only election-oriented costumes: John McCain and Sarah Palin were there, as was Obama's grandmother (may she rest in peace). Halloween may in fact be my favorite holiday. I love to see people getting so creative and not taking themselves seriously at all.

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