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November 30, 2006

Only Two More Weeks!

That's right! Only two more weeks until finals week. I already received one of my finals, it's a take-home project. I am scared! The project is worth 20% of my final grade in Survival Analysis. The entire final is nothing we discussed in class, but we were told we should be able to do it based on what we learned so far this semester. There are two problems. The first problem is worth 15% of our final grade, and the second problem is worth 5% of our final grade. The material covered in the first problem is covered in an additional section in our text that we haven't discussed in class. So I should be able to do this one. However, the material covered second problem cannot be found in our book. That means that we have to do independent research and figure out how to do this one. The prof said the first problem should take a day or two to complete, but he suspects the second probably will takes three times as long as the first problem takes to complete. What that...like 3-6 days on the second problem in order to complete it. I can see why he gave us the take-home project already, but where am I supposed to squeeze more time out of my already busy (and I mean crazy busy) schedule to do this on top of all of my homework assignments in my other classes?

These next two weeks are going to be very busy. I hope that I can somehow complete at least the first problem of this test before finals week. All together, I have two more Real Analysis assignments left, one more Survival Analysis assignment left, and two more Stat Theory assignments left from now until finals week. I will have a take-home final in Real Analysis and an in-class final for Stat Theory.

I haven't yet registered for next semester. I am hoping to do this by this weekend. I will be meeting with my advisor on Friday. I really don't want to take Real Analysis II next semester, although we are strongly encouraged to take it (but not required). I feel like I am just getting through Real Analysis I by a thread. I am taking Real Analysis I as pass/fail, thank goodness.

I am doing fine on the homework in Real Analysis (worth 50% of our grade), but every assignments scares me. I have to spend so much time to figure out these assignments. It's not computational, it's very rigorous and theortical. I actually feel like I really understood the last couple assignments, but the ones before those, I just try my best to get through them, with the help of the prof. It seems like the stuff we discussed in the middle of the semester (in October) was very difficult for me to comphrehend, but now we are discussing continuity, convergent, divergent functions, I feel better about it. Now (this week), we are discussing derivatives, and that looks ok. We shall see with our next assignment.

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 8:44 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 20, 2006

I met the "Dave Ryan in the Morning" radio crew!!!

That's right...I met the Dave Ryan In The Morning radio crew from KDWB (minus Crisco).

Last week I won tickets to dinner and movie from KDWB, which meant pizza and the James Bond movie at the Plymouth Mann Cinema tonight (Monday 11/20). I was excited to meet the morning show crew since I listen to them every morning. Since I have an exam on Wednesday, I have to study tonight, no excuses. I still wanted to meet them, so figured I would go just to meet them, and then I would go back to studying. As you can tell from the title of my blog, I did get to meet them.

I asked Dave Ryan if he could say a few words for my blog, and he kindly said sure. The audio also features Corey Foley and Steve-O from the morning show. I forgot to snap a pic, even though I brought my camera. So here's a pretend picture so you can imagine.

Listen to the audio clip! Download file

pretend photo.JPG

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 7:16 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 17, 2006

The Life of a Very Boring Person

Today I just turned in my Real Analysi take-home exam. It's the second exam in that class. I am grateful that we are given take-home exams because I am naturally a slow test taker, so take-home exams give me time to reflect on my thoughts. There were three problems on the exam, each with two parts. We were given it on Monday, so we had the week to work on it. I spent about every spare minute I could on this exam this whole week. Well, I have a decent feeling (not great, but not bad) about the exam. I answered all of the problems but some of my proofs weren't as involved as they probably should have been. The worst thing when writing a proof is to make too many assumptions. Be careful to note exactly what you are given and what you are not given. I feel like I borderline assumed too much on the second problem, but I gave some supporting threorems to back them up, although I can't be certain what I did was correct, or rigorous enough.

The first problem we were asked two questions and also asked to prove our answers. I did this first problem on Tuesday and felt very relieved to have at least one problem in the bag. Then I looked at it again yesterday and found I made horrible mistakes in the problem. Where was my mind on Tuesday (probably in panic mode)? So I fixed it up and put it away. Then I went to re-write the problem this morning to make it readable, and found that I made yet another mistake. I fixed that one up and now I feel really good about the answers I submitted. Hopefully they are correct. Recall, this is the class I will have good feelings and do awful, and then have bad feelings and do well. So, I don't know what to say at this moment about the exam, expect I am grateful to be finished with it.

Despite having a take-home exam in Real Analysis this week, our prof also gave us homework. Yup, that's right - a double whammy! We have 8 homework problems, some with multiple parts. I plan to do homework and study all weekend. Sounds fun, huh?

I have yet another exam in Stat Theory on Wednesday. I need to do well on it. I like this class a lot and feel that I was blessed with a great professor. So this weekend I plan to study hard and prepare for this exam. Well, actually I am taking a couple hours out of studying tomorrow to see my friend. I am looking foward to studying like mad that day (yay right) to just relax at night and have fun.

Jer Canoeing.JPG
"Turkey Day" is coming up, aka my dad's birthday. I am so looking forward to a short (but stressful) week. I absolutely do not plan to touch any of my college stuff on Thanksgiving and probably not the day after. I need a break, and this semester doesn't end officially until Dec. 20th, so I am going to take these two days off (Thursday and Friday next week) so I can prevent myself from getting too run down, and finish the semester strong.

The picture to the right is my husband at his cabing canoeing while enjoying a beautiful MN fall morning. That's all for now. Have a great weekend!

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 3:36 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 15, 2006

I was on the radio...

I won a radio contest on 101.3 KDWB. I called and got right through, probably because I called at 5:40am. I guessed what one of the morning DJ's did this weekend, and won tickets to dinner and a movie with the radio DJ's. The problem is it is on this next Monday during the evening. I would love to meet them. but I have a midterm next Wednesday. I am not sure what I will do. I think I might go and meet them and skip out on the movie part. I am not sure yet. When I talked to the DJ's, they put me on the air and asked me what I did this weekend. I told them all I did was study. They asked what school I attend, and I gave props to the U of MN. :-)

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 7:04 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

November 13, 2006

Rant About Buses

I had no plans to write a blog today, but I have to rant. I left home at 5:30am this morning and didn't get to campus until 7am. That's an hour and a half commute when there is hardly any traffic. It shouldn't take this long to get to campus, but it does if I take the bus. My bus arrived about a minute late downtown, so I missed my transfer bus and had to wait for the next transfer bus. Of course the next transfer bus is late. How frustrating!

Then I get on the transfer bus and there are no available seats to sit on. So I have to stand with what feels like my 20 lb backpack. My back starts to hurt. Then they bus continues to pick up people. Sure enough, we are pack in there like sardines. It's early enough that most people are not talking on there cell phones yet (which happens all the time in the afternoon buses). Just listening, I hear about three different people coughing and coughing and coughing. By riding the bus I am pretty much destined to get sick. It's evitable with so many germs everywhere and the guy next to me coughing right on me and my cup of coffee.

Then we get to the next bus stop, the guy behind me needs to get off, so he pushes his way through the crowded bus and nearly knocks me to my feet. Trust me when I say this is not the first time this occured. This happens all the time, nearly every bus ride.

Now, I get to look forward to my hour and half commute home this afternoon. It always happens that someone, most of the time multiple people, are chatting away on their cell phones. I can't blame them for wanting to pass the time, but seriously, do they have to talk so loud! People on a bus talk on cell phones so loud, probably because the buses are so loud themselves. But this is really irritating to everyone else!

People ask me, can't you sleep on the bus, or can't you study on the bus. The answers to those questions are no, absolutely not. FIrst, if I don't get a seat and have to stand, then it is not possible to do either. Secondly, if I bring a cup of coffee, then it's nearly impossible to do either. And if I am luckly enough to get a seat, and don't have to hold onto anything, then I have to try to sleep throught everyone's cell phone conversations. I can't study on a bus because I get car sick (or should I say bus-sick).

So now you are thinking, why don't I just drive. Well I wonder that myself. I leave early enough to bet the traffic, so that's not a factor for me. The major concern is paying for parking. There are lots on campus that cost $3.50 for the entire day, and one is right next to my work. There is always spots available by the time I get here. It would be so much less stressful and more convienient if I do this, but the cost just adds up (compared to the $62/semester bus pass). I tried parking on the local streets, but can't quite figure out the parking rules. I got a parking ticket and don't know why. I called the city to ask if there are parking restrictions (in general) in Minneapolis, and they said no. So, I really just am afraid to get another $35 ticket trying to figure it out.

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 7:15 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 11, 2006

♦♦♦♦     Solution to the Monty Hall problem     ♦♦♦♦

Before we go ahead and solve these problems, let's intuitively think about these problems. Well if after we choose a door, another door is then canceled out from having the car behind it, then either the car is behind our original choice or the car is behind the remaining door. So, it seems at this point we would have a 50/50 chance of having the car behind our door we originally chose and the remaining door. However, this is not the case since we have more information than this. We have conditional probability since we are given more information. So you will see this in our notation. We are to find the probability of an event given we know some other information. So now let's solve our problems using the hints from my previous blog...


The Monty Hall Problem

Suppose there are three doors (A,B,C). A car is hiding behind one of the doors, but you don't know which door. You select one door, call it door A. The host will then open one of the doors B or C as follows:


  • If the car is behind door B, then the host will open door C.

  • If the car is behind door C, then the host will open door B.

  • If the car is behind door A, then they open either door B or C with equal probability of 1/2.

  • No matter what the host will not open the door with the car behind it.


Then after showing you the wrong door, the host then asks you if you want to keep the door you choice (i.e. door A) or switch to the remaining unopened door. You win if and only if the car is behind your final door choice. (Source: Parade Magazine, "Ask Marilyn" column on Sept. 9, 1990)


Solution to Problem #1
If you stick to your original choice (i.e. door A), and say the host opened door B, then what is your probability of winning?

Step (1) Define your events:
Ca = { car is behind door A }
Cb = { car is behind door B }
Cc = { car is behind door C }
Oa = { host opens door A; car is not behind door A }
Ob = { host opens door B; car is not behind door B }
Oc = { host opens door C; car is not behind door C }
Pr(Ca) = Pr(Cb) = Pr(Cc)


Step (2) Determine what you are solving for and write as a probability:
Pr(Ca | Ob) = Pr(Ob | Ca)•Pr(Ca) ⁄ Pr(Ob)


Step (3)Solve using Bayes Thrm:
Pr(Ob) =
      Pr(Ob | Ca)•Pr(Ca) + Pr(Ob | Cb)•Pr(Cb) + Pr(Ob | Cc)•Pr(Cc) = (1/2)•(1/3) + 0•(1/3) + 1•(1/3) = 1/2

Pr(Ob | Ca) = 1/2 since our original choice is door A, and the host is equally as likely to open door B or C given we know the car is behind door A.

So, this gives
Pr(Ca | Ob) =
      Pr(Ob | Ca)•Pr(Ca) ⁄ Pr(Ob) = (1/2)•(1/3) ⁄ (1/2) = 1/3.

Solution to Problem #2
If you switch from door A to door C, conditional on the host having opened door B, what is your probability of winning?

Step (1) Define your events: same as above
Same as in problem (1)


Step (2) Determine what you are solving for and write as a probability:
Pr(Cc | Ob) = Pr(Ob | Cc)•Pr(Cc) ⁄ Pr(Ob)


Step (3)Solve using Bayes Thrm:
Pr(Ob) = (same as in Problem (1)) = 1/2

Pr(Ob | Cc) = 1 since our original choice is door A so the host is cannot open this door. Since the host knows the care is behind door C, then the host must open door B.

So this gives
Pr(Ca | Ob) =
      Pr(Ob | Cc)•Pr(Cc) ⁄ Pr(Ob) = 1•(1/3) ⁄ (1/2) = 2/3.


I hope you all fun with this one! It's supposed to be fun. Now, think about this problem in terms of the T.V. show Deal or No Deal.

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 12:09 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 4, 2006

The Monty Hall Problem


I dare you all to try this statistics problem...it is not too hard, makes you think, and is just fun. I will give hints how to do it.

Here's a problem for all of you. I hope you try it! I will post the solution in a blog in another week, so you can see if your right. This was actually one of our homework problems in our Stat Theory class, but we also did this same problem in undergrad, so you will probably be able to do it.


The Monty Hall Problem

Suppose there are three doors (A,B,C). A car is hiding behind one of the doors, but you don't know which door. You select one door, call it door A. The host will then open one of the doors B or C as follows:


  • If the car is behind door B, then the host will open door C.

  • If the car is behind door C, then the host will open door B.

  • If the car is behind door A, then they open either door B or C with equal probability of 1/2.

  • No matter what the host will not open the door with the car behind it.


Then after showing you the wrong door, the host then asks you if you want to keep the door you choice (i.e. door A) or switch to the remaining unopened door. You win if and only if the car is behind your final door choice. (Source: Parade Magazine, "Ask Marilyn" column on Sept. 9, 1990)


QUESTIONS:


  1. If you stick to your original choice (i.e. door A), and say the host opened door B, then what is your probability of winning?

  2. If you switch from door A to door C, conditional on the host having opened door B, what is your probability of winning?

HINTS:


  • Use Baye's Rule:
    P(Ci | B) = P(B ∩ Ci) ⁄ P(B) = P(B | Ci)P(Ci) ⁄ [ P(B | C1)P(C1) + P(B |C2)P(C2) + … ]

  • P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B)

  • In the previous hints, A, B, C are just notation, they can be any of A, B or C.


Write me if you have questions.

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 4:31 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 2, 2006

Job?

Today's blog will be different than my previous blogs. I am prying you for information.

Does anyone know of any data entry type jobs that can be done from home for about 10 hours a week? Or does anyone know where to search for a job like this other than the newspaper? My husband's work is slowing down significantly. He is a plumber. Generally in the winter his work slows down, but this winter is particularly rough since the market is saturated with houses that are not selling. He also has a B.S. in business administration. He would like to work part-time from home (about 10 hours of week) maybe doing data entry or something along those lines since he gets off at different times each day.

Post a comment below if you know of anything. It won't post online, but rather it will be emailed to me automatically. So you don't have to worry about it being shown online.

Posted by Stefanie Schussler at 9:34 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)