Job Climate Change


According to recent a Gallup poll, Americans' perspective of the job climate in the US has changed. Unlike climate change pertaining to the environment, job climate change has actually changed for the better.

24% of Americans say it is now a good time to find a job, which is nearly three times as many as a year ago (8%).

Among employed Americans or unemployed and looking for work, 26% feel the job climate is good versus 7% last year.

The samples can be fairly and accurately generalized to the populations they are representing. Both polls were phone polls that used random-digit dialing to contact their participants. The sample sizes were plenty large enough, as well, at 1,015 for the first and 527 for the second.

The polls is also valid in terms of question wording. The polls measured the perceptions of participants by asking one simple question: thinking of the job situation today, would you say that it is now a good time or bad time find a quality job? The question is understandable, and not leading or loaded, indicating the poll measured what it is supposed to measure.

The poll is also reliable in that the results measured consistently with other polls. These polls are conducted year-over-year, and there are (sometimes drastic) changes in results, which could lead researchers to believe that the results are unreliable. However, Gallup compares their results to other polls relating to the economy in order to show reliability.

These two polls are the the Economic Confidence Index and the Job Creation Index. The first measures Americans' confidence in the economy and the second measures how many newly-hired Americans there have been in the past year. The results of all polls are correlated (especially Job Creation vs Job Climate Perception) and add to each other's reliability.

Gallup admits a possible sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points and a confidence interval of 95%. In its summary, they theorize that the more positive perception of jobs and the economy could result from improved unemployment rates in past months. Of course, to establish causality in that matter, Gallup would need to launch a research experiment.

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