Vorige week las ik een artikel in de LA Times dat achteraf beschouwd nagels met koppen sloeg. Het voerde aan dat deze verkiezingsstijd zo scherp en bitter was omdat hij een culturele breuklijn over waarden en normen in de Amerikaanse samenleving blootlegde.
In de jaren 90 was het duidelijk, alles draaide rond de economie. Met het tot slogan verheven inzicht "It's the economy, stupid" katapulteerde strategist James Carville Bill Clinton het Witte Huis in. Bush senior mocht dan al een succesvolle veldtocht in Irak op het conto hebben, een slabakkende economie deed hem de das om. Maar Baby Bush had ook te kampen met een sputterende economie en zijn Irak avontuur is heel wat minder populair en succesvol dan dat van papa: hoe is hij er dan met ogenschijnlijk minder troeven in handen dan papa Bush in geslaagd een herverkiezing uit de brand slepen?
Misschien was de tegenstand gewoon zwakker, (Kerry is geen Clinton) misschien speelde het 9/11 effect in de kaart van baby Bush, of misschien heeft hij zich gewoon beter omringd en heeft hij een slimmere campagne gevoerd (wie ook wat moge zeggen over Karl Rove, the guy is not to be underestimated). Een andere verklaring is dat Carville's mantra aan geldigheid heeft ingeboet, en moet vervangen worden door "It's norms and values, stupid."
Want het is ondertussen duidelijk geworden dat moral values het "sleeper issue" van de verkiezingsstrijd was dat uiteindelijk Bush over de top geholpen heeft.
Meer dan de economie, meer dan de oorlog in Irak, lijken "moral values" voor vele kiezers de litmus test te te zijn op basis waarvan ze hun keuze maken. Bush, die met zijn geloof te koop loopt ("Jesus is my favorite philosopher"), die zich duidelijk uitspreekt tegen het homohuwelijk, tegen abortus en tegen overheidssteun voor stamcelonderzoek, die het boek "genesis" meer lijkt te vertrouwen dan de evolutietheorie, die vindt dat Amerika best zijn eigen gang gaat, die een good v. evil werldbeeld heeft dat zo uit een comic book gepikt lijkt, die er van overtuigd is dat een extreme vorm van laissez faire en individualisme noodzakelijke voorwaarden zijn voor vrijheid en democratie en die
nooit lijkt te twijfelen aan de juistheid van zijn eigen overtuiging raakt blijkbaar een gevoelige snaar bij vele Amerikanen terwijl het bij John Kerry al een hele opgave is erachter te komen wat hij denkt, laat staan waarom hij zo denkt.
Aan de andere kant, de kiezers die zich niet kunnen vinden in dit werldbeeld verachten het met een hartstocht en passie die je niet vindt in een meningsverschil over economisch beleid. Zij kijken op een radicaal andere manier de wereld in, en staan voor de scheiding tussen kerk en staat, burgevrijheden (die door de PATRIOT Act onder druk komen te staan), voor een mulitilaterale politiek, en allerhande andere sociaal progressieve standpunten, en zien in Bush het vleesgeworden kwaad. Ik bespeur dan ook veel frustratie hier (mijn kenissenkring is vooral bevolkt door deze categorie) omdat ze maar niet begrijpen hoe hun -in hun ogen- moreel superieur wereldbeeld het moet afleggen tegen het meat-and-potatoes denken van George Bush. Waar de culturele elite zich bevindt (steden, weskust, noordoostkust, in mindere mate de upper midwest), daar stemt men vooral Kerry, de rest van het land is republikeins. Ik hoor daar links en rechts nogal wat gemopper over, dat de hicks van het platteland, de SUV rijders uit de voorsteden, de Alabama's en Texassen de verlichte geesten dwarsbomen. Misschien een beetje hetzelfde elitaire denken dat bij ons de weg heeft vrij gemaakt voor het Vlaams Blok?
Maar dat zal Bush allemaal worst wezen als hij de komende jaren een paar nieuwe rechters voor het hooggerechtshof mag benoemen. Er zitten momenteel een paar wel zeer krasse knarren tussen de negen justices van the Supreme Court, die het wellicht geen vier jaar meer uithouden. Chief Justice Rehnquist, tachtig en lijdend aan kanker zou wel eens voor de eerst vacature kunnen zorgen. Hoe meer rechters Bush en co kunnen aanstellen, hoe makkelijker het voor hen wordt hun conservatieve agenda er door te drukken. Pro choice organisaties zijn er bijvoorbeeld bezorgd over dat Roe v. Wade, de zaak die het recht op een vroege abortus op privacy gronden garandeerde wel eens zou kunnen teruggeschroefd worden als een pro lifer een pro choicer zou vervangen op de banken van the Supreme Court.
Of de prominente plaats die waarden en normen innemen in deze verkiezingen een eenmalig fenomeen is of een shift vertegenwoordigt naar postmateriële
waarden in het politieke landschap, valt te bezien, maar de democraten zouden er goed aan doen om hun boodschap wat dieper te verankeren in een consistent raamwerk van waarden en normen i.p.v. blinde opppositie tegen George Bush. Golden boy Barack Obama, die gisteren met een overweldigende meerderheid een senaatszetel in de wacht sleepte, en van wie wordt verwacht dat hij de eerst zwarte president kan worden, mag de borst alvast nat maken.
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Ik ben een optimist tegen alles in, en ben dan ook niet ongelooflijk de kop in van deze Bush-overwinning, al was het maar omdat ik de bui al die tijd al had zien hangen (eigenlijk al van toen Howard Dean de race moest verlaten).
Slechts één randbemerking van mijn kant (en tegelijk ook weer een soort van zwartgallig-optimistische noot): als Justice Rehnquist er binnenkort er het bijltje bij neerlegt en vervangen wordt door een Babybush-crony, dan is dat nu toch weer niet zo'n hele achteruitgang ten opzichte van Rehnquist zelf, die toch al een door de wol geverfde conservatief was. Ik hou mijn hart eerder vast als David Souter of Sandra Day O'Connor het voor bekeken houden, want dan wordt het broze conservatief-progressieve evenwicht in de Supreme Court pas goed verbroken in het voordeel van de Bible Belt.
Voor weldenkende Amerikanen breken in elk geval bange tijden aan, zoveel is duidelijk. Ben blij er geen te zijn, en er zelf over te beslissen wanneer ik nog voet op Amerikaanse bodem zet de volgende vier jaar. Zolang Bush dan maar zijn vuile was zoveel mogelijk binnen- en niet buitenshuis drapeert...
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