December 04, 2004
The Strange Case Of the Market that Stopped Barking
I posted earlier about the possibility that the price of oil was just a bubble and the evidence is that this was the case is mounting. Despite the fact that the dollar has continued to slide, the price of oil peaked at the end of October and has fallen by about 20% since then. The timing is also interesting – if you look at the the futures market , on 26 October the market abruptly changed direction, taking 4 dollars off the price in a couple of days. The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) also went from 70 to about 30 in a couple of days indication that the oil moved from being oversold to undersold commodity. Perhaps someone realized that once the global hysteria that accompanied US elections would almost certainly dissipated after November 4, and once calm reason was restored the bubble would burst. Very cunning Mr. Soros!
NB The RSI measure a market’s strength and weak- ness. A high RSI (>70) indicates an overbought or weakening market, and a low RSI (<30) an oversold, bear market
Posted by wardx107 at December 4, 2004 05:37 PMRemember Mr Macmillan "Events Dear Boy" or in a more homely fashion as per Rummy "Shit happens".
Dirty bomb on ship transiting Panama Canal, GWB assassinated (ot attempt), China develops 2/3 Kg nuclear weapon using isomer flooding of Hafnium size of a coke can, Israel decides on it's own to wipe out Iranian reactors, SE Asia decides to sell Treasuries big style as dollar dives....
My advice buy Uranium. However the cheese eating surrender minkeys (COGEMA) have pretty well sewn that up along with Riot Tinto Zinc.
The interesting thing about oil / US is the share of oil costs as % of GDP has declined for last 30 years, less industry which has disappeared overseas, first in making pyjamas now electronics. They have even bought IBM PC biz for the cost of les than one days Trade deficit.
"Look East where whole new thousands are !
In Vishnu Land what Avatar"
Robert Browning
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