From The Economist:
“With the death toll from South Asia’s tsunamis at almost 60,000 and still rising, there have been calls for a system to alert countries bordering the Indian Ocean when undersea earthquakes happen.”
But““Tsunamis are fairly common in the Pacific, whereas in the Indian Ocean they may occur only once in a century. This makes it harder for the developing countries around the Indian Ocean’s rim to justify spending money on detecting tsunamis and preparing mass evacuation plans, rather than on more everyday life-saving measures such as basic sanitation and health services.”So“One rather low-tech way of reducing the casualty toll from tsunamis is to teach coastal dwellers to recognize the signs that one is imminent—such as strong and prolonged ground shaking—and to flee immediately to higher ground. Shortly after a tsunami hit Papua New Guinea in 1998, killing more than 2,000 people, an international team was sent to Vanuatu, a group of Pacific islands, to teach locals to spot the warning signs. When a tsunami struck the islands soon after, it killed only five people. “This seems about right. One feature about earthquakes as distinct from other acts of God such as storms and asteroid strikes is that their probability of occurrence is not independent; if a large earthquake occurs then the probability that another one will occur in the same spot is reduced, since the earthquake will have relieved the tectonic pressures that were it’s cause.This suggests that an ealy warning system in the Indian Ocean is almost certainly not a economic propostion now since the earthquake of the 27th occurred in the only part of the ring of fire that could send a tsunami across the Indian Ocean.
By contrast, since South Asia’s tsunamis will have made the world’s costal dwellers willing listeners, the costs of instructing them to recognize the signs have temporarily fallen. Therefore using aid to deliver tsunami safefty lessons in other parts of the world that are more likely to be affected should be a current priority.
Posted by wardx107 at December 28, 2004 12:56 PM
At a certain point, the progress of capitalism will create enough coastal wealth across the Indian Ocean basin that a tsunami warning system will become relatively painless. The big trick is to simply remember to do it when it's no longer a ghastly waste of scarce resources in a poor region but rather a reasonable expenditure that rising powers can make relatively painlessly.
Posted by: TM Lutas at January 1, 2005 12:34 PM