September 29, 2008

Financial crisis world-wide

The last few weeks have been in economic and even ideological terms, highly dramatic. The collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States, a market that specializes in lending money for house purchases to high-risk clients, as a result of collapsing house prices sparked off problems that have swept around the world. The problem arose in the United States as interest rates rose from 1% to 5% and more. Low interest rates sucked all sorts of people into house purchases and encouraged a high volume of speculative building. Rising rates caused lower sales and rises in defaults. The market, and perhaps even the regulators, seems to have overlooked the fact that when interest rates are at 1%, they can only go up! This led to falling house prices and increased rate of default on repayments. High-risk institutions in the sub-prime market had sold some of the debt to other institutions (banks; investment banks) domestically and internationally and this interconnected debt is what has given rise to the problems. This debt was made up of packages of mortages and so it was difficult for the rating agencies to be sure of the risks. There are suggestions that the SEC was not as careful as it should be in investigating the developments. Banks and mortgage institutions are in trouble nearly everywhere as stock markets and even private depositors took fright. The irony of the situation is that the regulatory authorities in the United States, the US Federal Reserve and the SEC, presided over the financial services industry as it was creating this problem and now the Federal Reserve is presiding over the attempts to rescue the financial sector and hence save the US and world economy from a deep and highly disruptive recession. How did this worldwide situation come about? What are the regulatory issues and other implications?

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September 11, 2008

Continuity and change in Pakistan.

The reign of the unpopular Pervez Musharaf is over. He left office towards the end of August and was replaced as President of Pakistan by Asif Zardari, the late Benazir Bhutto’s husband. Whatever Zardari’s faults, he has been elected to the Presidency by a democratic process. Stable and representative leadership is essential in Pakistan given the country’s significance to the West and to the United States in particular. Mushraf was unpopular for a number of reasons, including, among the middle-class, for his treatment of judges and lawyers. He was also unpopular because of the close relationship with the United States. What, if anything, has changed as a result of Zardari becoming President?

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September 09, 2008

A credible policy towards Russia.

Russia is still smarting from its experiences of the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has not yet found a new role in the world. It has a choice: authoritarian mercantilism or European type liberalism with coordinated inter-state action. The Georgian invasion looks like a mistake in the light of its economic ambitions. What policies are needed towards Russia in the light of the invasion of Georgia?

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September 05, 2008

European news that you may have missed.

Some snippets from the news as reported in Europe that you may have missed. The news as reported here has been compiled mainly but not uniquely from the feeder service provided by www.openeurope.org and any additional comment is supplied by the author of this blog.

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July 30, 2008

Doha trade talks collapse yet again

After seven years, the Doha Trade talks have collapsed again. It is clear that European Union subsidies and United States Farm Bill subsidies distort world trade in agricultural products. Such distortions are huge. It is equally clear that producers in the developing world would benefit from access to United States and European markets. The Doha Round is concerned with industrial and agricultural trade. Trade is an emotive issue, as David Hume was very clear about in the mid-18th century. Any discussion about trade needs to be clear-headed when it comes to tracing out the gains to be achieved. Trade in agricultural products is even more sensitive as powerful farm lobbies in the developed world argue for protection and anti-poverty groups in the developing world call for the protection of the incomes of poorer rural farmers. Have the talks finally collapsed? What are the issues?

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July 28, 2008

Gordon Brown and Glasgow East

Glasgow East, in the city of Glasgow, Scotland, was created a constituency for the 2005 General Election. It is composed of wards that are amongst the most deprived in Scotland with high unemployment, drug problems and low life expectancy. The area has always been strongly for the Labour Party and its predecessor constituencies were always regarded as one of the strongest Labour seats not only in Scotland but in the UK as a whole. In a recent by-election held on the 24 July, 2008, Glasgow East returned a Scottish National MP. The Labour vote collapsed and the SNP candidate John Mason was returned with a slim majority. What has happened? What are the likely political ramifications in a parliamentary democracy?

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July 21, 2008

Wind power in Europe

European Energy Policy (approved in 2005) calls on member states to diversify their sources of power as well as to consider greater scope for competition. Europe imports much of its energy and this is not seen as a sustainable proposition. In the mix, including nuclear power stations (with France and Britain for and Denmark against), renewable energy sources have a significant part to play. Wind power is seen by a number of countries to have considerable potential. Germany is the world’s biggest producer of electricity generated by wind power. It is estimated that German electricity generated by wind power can support the electricity demands of approximately 8 million households. Germany intends to increase the number of sites including sites at sea. Its position in the production of wind power has boosted its knowledge of engineering for production and has given it a leading role world-wide. Denmark has the biggest wind-power engineering sector and the skilled labor force to back it. Scotland, under the leadership of the Scottish Executive, has just agreed to the development of Europe’s biggest inland wind farm. The farm will provide enough electricity to meet the needs of 320,000 households. Yet some inshore schemes have been turned down. What do people in Scotland and elsewhere in Europe see as the issues?

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July 09, 2008

From freedom-fighter to state terrorist

Robert Mugabe was the leader of the war against the Smith regime. As the problems in the country mounted he was seen by the people as the man who could bring order and restore prosperity. For a time he did this but the issue of rewarding the people who fought with him in the the bush with land did not go away. In the end he rejected a planned and ordered land reform and simply took it. The economic consequences for Zimbabwe have been dire. Now, as a result of the abuse of the democratic process and violence directed against the party of the candidate who won the election of the 29th March, he is seen internationally and in some places domestically too as a man who has moved from freedom-fighter to state terrorist. Gordon Brown has described those who surround him as a ‘criminal cabal’. Yet he has managed to convince many Zimbabweans that Morgan Tsvangirai is a colonialist puppet and that UK opposition to Mugabe’s rule in a ploy to re-colonize Zimbabwe. What is the case against Mugabe? Why are other African leaders so hesitant to take a stand against him?

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June 23, 2008

Berlusconi from below

Berlusconi may have secured the popular vote in Italy but he remains a controversial figure in Italian political life. For the left he is seen as a figure who disrespects the law and whose political life is characterized by conflicts of interest. The latest attempts to shield him from judicial investigation have disturbed moderate voices such as that if the newspaper La Stampa. This suggests not only Berlusconi reverting to type but also the Italian political system itself. Further his desire to take communion as a divorced person has according to the Times online ‘raised eyebrows’ amongst church conservatives. It seems that he cannot avoid controversy. What do ordinary Italians think of Berlusconi? I had recently a chance to reflect on this in various conversations, largely informal. The views presented here have not been systematically collected.

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June 22, 2008

Tuscany in the early summer

There is a lot going on in the world economy, including concerns about the price of oil and its knock-on effects on transportation costs, food costs and world trade. I thought that in the context of much (misplaced) gloom, it might be an idea to produce a more personal and more light-hearted web log just for a change. Here then are some reflections on hosting some friends on a visit to Tuscany. This is not about world events, but it is about the advice, provided by Voltaire in Candide to ‘cultivate one’s garden’. What better place is there to reflect on the quality of life than in rural Tuscany?

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May 23, 2008

Gordon Brown is politically on the slide

Brown wanted so badly to be British Prime Minister. Moving from the office of Chancellor to that of Prime Minister was never going to be a smooth transition. Brown faced one problem after another. Labour has now lost a by-election and the Conservatives are actively rejoicing. What has happened to Gordon Brown? What are his chances of making a political recovery?

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May 19, 2008

Italy, Berlusconi and the economy

Commenting on Italian politics is not for the feint hearted. Silvio Berlusconi, the darling of the right and bogeyman of the left, and alleged ‘good-friend of Bush’, is back in the Prime Minister’s office. In the middle of May he gave his first address to the Chamber of Deputies. Italy is faced with huge economic problems. In the context of the EU, Italy’s economy is not insignificant. The problems include a significant budget deficit, insignificant economic growth, the persistent problem if Alitalia and the refuse crisis in Naples. What has Berlusconi promised? Has he changed his old ways?

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May 06, 2008

Indian and African relations

Indian is a major driver-economy in Asia. Like China it is looking to a dynamic future and attempting to position itself to ensure it has access to a future supply of raw materials and to future export markets. India is a country and Africa is a continent. China has been very active on the African continent. What is India trying to achieve? What are the similarities and differences when its developing policies are compared to those of China?

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April 23, 2008

European Union policy towards Russia and Ukraine

This guest web log has been produced by Professor Elzbieta Stadtmuller, Professor of International Relations from the University of Wroclaw in Poland. Professor Stadtmuller is an International Visiting Fellow at the Alworth Institute.

Russia seems to be moving towards an active and individualistic foreign policy. It is concerned with developments on its borders and in its former spheres of influence, including the Ukraine. What is the policy of the European Union (as opposed to the policies of individual states) towards Russia and the Ukraine? How successful can the policy be?

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April 16, 2008

Security and foreign policy in Poland during transformation.

This guest web log has been produced by Dr. Elzbieta Stadtmuller, Professor of International Studies at the University of Wroclaw and International Visiting Fellow at the Alworth Institute.

Poland has always been situated in a geopolitical dilemma. Historically is has been located between an expansionist West (Germany in one form of another) and an expansionist east (Russia in one form or another). What have been and continue to be the issues facing Poland? How are such issues being resolved during this time of transition and transformation in Eastern Europe?

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