View Zhirong Zhao's profile on LinkedIn

Blogroll

My pages

Visitors

Powered by

Header image of Hong Kong financial center courtesy of hleung on flickr.

The Government Bailout: Why in a Rush?

In today’s newsletter from the Heartland Institute, the article is titled “The Government Bailout: How Good Are the Forecasts?

Citing a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgement, the article argues that experts are useless for forecasting related to “complex and uncertain situations,” no matter how confident they look with their professional credentials. So you should never rush for a big personal investment decision just by hearing some “experts advice.”

For the same reason, a healthy dose of skepticism seems necessary upon the debates of our “seasoned” leaders in Washington that are about spending $700 billion of “other people’s money.” In particular, when they “have provided no scientific basis for their decision and they show no awareness of how one should properly approach such a forecasting problem.”

If I am not as pessimistic as these authors on the “science” of economic forecasting, at least I would be close. I haven’t spent enough time to study the proposals to make an “expert” comment, but sure I agree that, “there are ways to study this problem, but they should not be done in a rush, and they should not be done in group meetings.”

-----------------------------------------------------
p.s. Henry Paulson’s initial plan called for government purchases of toxic mortgage-backed securities, which was heavily criticized by economists. Luckily, now the plan has been altered to buy equity stakes, following the British example set by Gordon Broan. See the news article (10/14/2008) by Paul Krugman, who just wons the Nobel prize in economics early this week.

Comments

Using install-templates.sh from a directory other than where it's stored breaks the script; i.e., when dragging into a raw terminal window (defaulting to ~/), it expects all in the data in the tar.gz to are extracted into your current working directory. Changing directories to where you extracted the tar.gz and running the script (then forcing it to "reinstall" when it asks) will operate correctly.

As to the question about Indianapolis. Final week a tower ought to of been turned on in downtown picking up 4g signal around central downtown.

Hi, how do I install this? I have a wordpress flexx web page.

Thanks for reminding the service. Folks talk about getting lots of followers and following few ones only to improve the value of twitter profile. I guess it are going to be great for those who wish to earn from twitter.

Within a routine search today, I discovered a url to your Squidoo web page that includes your review of my ebook, Quick Money Secrets. I ceased publication of that ebook some time ago after banks stopped giving loans and its material was no longer of value. You should thus remove this review from your Squidoo lens. Please email me directly if you've any questions. Thanks, and Happy New Year!

With every little thing that appears to be building inside this specific area, your perspectives are generally very exciting. Nevertheless, I am sorry, but I do not subscribe to your entire plan, all be it stimulating none the less. It appears to me that your remarks are actually not completely justified and in fact you are yourself not even wholly convinced of the point. In any case I did take pleasure in looking at it.

I'm curious to find out what blog system you have been utilizing? I'm having some small security problems with my latest site and I would like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any recommendations?

Hi! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay. I'm definitely enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.

Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all. But imagine if you added some great pictures or video clips to give your posts more, "pop"! Your content is excellent but with images and video clips, this site could certainly be one of the best in its niche. Superb blog!

Hi there, You've done an incredible job. I’ll certainly digg it and personally suggest to my friends. I am sure they'll be benefited from this website.

I get so many DMs daily that I are unable to be bothered with them now. I am sure I must skip folks who genuinely want to speak, but it's totally ridiculous now!

It was difficult to choose, most of them I could see my husband wearing. Good job!

Thank you, I've recently been hunting for details about this subject matter for ages and yours is the best I have located so far.

My dream retirement involves traveling domestically and internationally to function on environmental causes.

Colleen, how sweet of you! It is this kind of entertaining residing in G-ville and sharing it is goings on. Everyone coming jointly, that is what it really is about residing in a modest city!br /Now who wants to acquire me espresso?

In Des Moines, there's no great pizza location that I can assume of, however the pizzas they make at Hessen Haus are fairly okay. There is certainly just one which features wild boar and duck. And whatever goes very well by using a liter of German beer.

Certainly the red car one of the to start with textbooks I study as being a kid an 69 now built me a car nut.

Thanks, I have recently been looking for information about this subject for ages and yours is the best I have found so far.

Oh yeah and also this is the best topic to get through! Many thanks for that somebody that we got, what is happening hands our appreciation. Great content.

Another thing I've really noticed is the fact that for many people, a bad credit score is the reaction of circumstances past their control. For instance they may are already saddled with illness and as a consequence they have large bills going to collections. It can be due to a job loss or inability to go to work. Sometimes breakup can truly send the budget in the wrong direction. Thanks for sharing your ideas on this site.

This website definitely has all the information and facts I needed about this subject and didnít know who to ask.

Baylion mentioned on September 20, 2012

Shame on him

charming site you've. wonderful to go to.. Groeten uit Nederland.

HA! Thanx, David. I do not consider you'd have room to turn it around ! BTW, notice the two generators. Mr. Hallberg reported they were necessary to power all the auxiliary lights this beast had on it when it was in service, but he only needs one particular to operate it now.

we need more images everyday,it can be very minor

That's what i was looking since a long time.

I am always browsing online for articles that can help me. Thank you!

I am often to blogging and i really appreciate your content. The article has really peaks my interest. I am going to bookmark your site and keep checking for new information.

janicetripepi claimed on July 19, 2012

Never cut a tree down in the wintertime. Never make a negative decision in the low time.

Only wanna tell that this is extremely helpful, Thanks for taking your time to write this.

i would like the entire details about the bmw-vision including fees composition

Just wanna comment that you have a very decent website , I enjoy the pattern it really stands out.

Is there anywhere else you can buy the blu electronic cigarette other than online? And has anyone tried them? They seem like a great alternative. I am by no means a regular smoker. Maybe 3 a week or I just smoke at parties haha.

I like this post, enjoyed this one thanks for putting up. "I would sooner fail than not be among the greatest." by John Keats.

I really like your writing style, great information, regards for putting up :D. "In university they don't tell you that the greater part of the law is learning to tolerate fools." by Doris Lessing.

I like this web site very much, Its a really nice situation to read and obtain information.

good publish I smoked for 40 many years and I stopped. It is ten decades now I'm not smoking and I am pretty joyful and healthy

Thanks, I have recently been hunting for facts about this subject for ages and yours is the best I've found so far.

It sounds like you are creating troubles by yourself by attempting to resolve this problem rather of looking at why their is a issue in the first place

The Star Trek score is good also, Kirk’s theme is cool, the title theme is beautiful, although I missed the fanfare.

Hey, what type of anti-spam plugin do you use for the weblog.`”\";~

I've recently started a web site, the info you provide on this web site has helped me tremendously. Thanks for all of your time & work. "Americans detest all lies except lies spoken in public or printed lies." by Edgar Watson Howe.

I appreciate you taking the time to create this post. It is quite helpful to me in fact. Enjoy it.

This is a topic that’s near to my heart… Many thanks! Where are your contact details though?

books on the net are excellent, wether they are e-books or conventional hardbound and paperback books~

Commonly I do not comment on your blog. I'm extra in the silent type but I wonder, is this wordpress due to the fact I am pondering of switching my personal weblog from blogspot to wordpress.

Friday Night Lights can be a fantastic television series, i love the game and i enjoy the story::

Zahnaufhellung Selters created in perfect quality by your dentists with passion

I’ve got some ongoing projects and I wanted all these students help me with it.

You may have not intended to do so, but I believe you have managed to express the state of mind that a lot of people are in. The sense of wanting to aid, but not knowing how or exactly where, is one thing a lot of us are going through.

Keramikkrone Montabaur produced in perfect accuracy by dentists with passion

It’s not simple, but i think you just have to be objective about your self and realize that occasionally when somebody is criticizing they're only giving

norwegians you necessarily mean...

I’ve got some ongoing tasks and I wanted all these students assist me with it.

Having constant problems with my PC

I was able to find good information from your blog posts.

i do lots of article submissions in a week or two and i hire some writers from india and other countries to do my stuf,.

Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs